Player props where the FTA projection disagrees with the market, rebuilt every week. Each market is priced against a single sportsbook that quotes both sides so the vig can be removed honestly, rather than by taking the best number on each side.
The edge column is the one to read. Our projections run systematically above the book on yardage markets and slightly below it on receptions, so a raw edge list would be nothing but overs. Every number here is calculated after that bias is removed.
THE PLAYS WE LIKE
This week's prop edges
Out of 2,374 priced outcomes, these are the 12 where a book is paying more than our projection says the bet is worth, across 9 games. Every edge is calculated after our own model bias is removed. Updated September 12, 2026.
TOP PLAY 1
Derrick Henry
BAL vs IND
Over 6.5 Receiving Yds
-106 at Prophetx
Model72%
Fair49%
Edge+17.1
EV+28.3%
TOP PLAY 2
Chuba Hubbard
CAR vs CHI
Under 75.5 Rush + Rec Yds
-115 at Fanatics
Model64%
Fair50%
Edge+16.7
EV+24.7%
TOP PLAY 3
Tre Tucker
LV vs MIA
Under 4.5 Receptions
-132 at Draftkings
Model72%
Fair54%
Edge+16.0
EV+22.5%
The rest of the card
| Player | Market | Best Price | Model | Fair | Edge | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk CousinsLV vs MIA | Passing AttemptsOver 28.5 | -122Draftkings | 67% | 52% | +14.9 | +21.4% |
| Ashton JeantyLV vs MIA | ReceptionsUnder 3.5 | -127Prophetx | 72% | 55% | +14.6 | +24.1% |
| James Cook IIIBUF vs HOU | ReceptionsUnder 2.5 | +122Prophetx | 60% | 44% | +14.1 | +29.6% |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI vs CAR | Rushing YdsOver 25.5 | -115Fanatics | 70% | 50% | +13.8 | +19.3% |
| Omarion HamptonLAC vs ARI | Receiving YdsOver 12.5 | -111Novig | 69% | 50% | +12.7 | +19.2% |
| Tre TuckerLV vs MIA | Receiving YdsUnder 48.5 | -105Prophetx | 57% | 50% | +12.5 | +22.4% |
| Kenneth WalkerKC vs DEN | ReceptionsUnder 3.5 | -166Fanduel | 72% | 58% | +11.9 | +12.4% |
| Woody MarksHOU vs BUF | Receiving YdsOver 8.5 | -119Draftkings | 69% | 51% | +11.6 | +15.9% |
| Tua TagovailoaATL vs PIT | Rushing YdsOver 1.5 | -102Fanduel | 68% | 51% | +10.9 | +22.3% |
Read the edge column, not the price. Our projections ran plus 6.2 against the book on rushing yards this week and plus 6.1 on receiving yards, but MINUS 2.1 on receptions. Published raw that produces a card of nothing but overs, which tells you the model is running hot rather than that the market is wrong. Every edge above is after that per market bias is removed. Each market is de-vigged from one book quoting both sides, never a best-of across books, and pick em products are excluded because their fixed juice makes every play look like a huge edge. Games already under way are removed. Not betting advice. 1-800-GAMBLER.