DFS Boom/Bust Tool

A projection tells you what a player is expected to score. It doesn't tell you the shape of that outcome — and in DFS, shape is everything. Two players can carry the same projection while one is a steady floor play and the other is a boom-or-bust dart throw. This tool breaks every player on the slate into three numbers projections hide: Boom % (chance of a ceiling game that wins tournaments), Bust % (chance of falling short of salary value), and Optimal % (how often the player lands in an optimal lineup). Covers MLB, NFL, NBA, PGA, NASCAR, and MMA on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The payoff is leverage: a player with high boom probability but low projected ownership is the exact profile that wins large-field GPPs. A high bust probability on chalky, popular players is a fade signal. For cash games, target the lowest bust probabilities for a stable floor.

Sort any column, filter to a sport, and export to CSV. Pair it with our Leverage Report and drop plays into the BaconLab optimizer. New to the concepts? See our strategy guides for MLB, NFL, NBA, and PGA. The live tool below is an FTA+ member feature.