MLB Vegas Odds Today
All 4 games with the simulated total, the implied runs for both sides and the moneyline priced two ways. The edge column is our model probability minus what the best posted price implies. 8 of the 8 moneyline sides are priced today, and 4 of the 4 games had a total posted close enough to the main number to grade.
| Game | Sim Total | Away Runs | Home Runs | Away ML | Home ML | Park | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland at White SoxRate Field · 3:00 PM CT | 9.65market 8.5 at +116+10.2 | 4.96CLE | 4.68CHW | +11052.0% model vs 47.6% market+4.4 | -12648.0% model vs 55.8% market-7.8 | -2% runs-4% HR | 75°8 mph out to center |
| Dodgers at AtlantaTruist Park · 5:00 PM CT | 9.58market 7.5 at -106+11.7 | 5.22LAD | 4.36ATL | -14854.9% model vs 59.7% market-4.8 | +12845.1% model vs 43.9% market+1.2 | +0% runs+3% HR | 77°3 mph in from center |
| Milwaukee at San DiegoPetco Park · 9:00 PM CT | 8.51market 7.5 at -105+3.5 | 3.95MIL | 4.56SD | -10640.8% model vs 51.5% market-10.7 | -11059.2% model vs 52.4% market+6.8 | -8% runs-4% HR | 78°6 mph left to right |
| Tampa Bay at YankeesYankee Stadium · 7:00 PM CT | 8.10market 7.5 at +102+1.9 | 3.74TB | 4.36NYY | +13839.6% model vs 42.0% market-2.4 | -16460.4% model vs 62.1% market-1.7 | -2% runs+6% HR | 61°9 mph right to left |
Prices move through the morning. Confirm the number before you bet it.
How To Read This Board
Game total
The simulated total is what our model expects both teams to score combined. The market line beneath it is the number a book actually posted, and the pill is our probability of the over minus what that price implies.
Implied team runs
The two run columns split the simulated total by side. A team projected well above its opponent is both a stacking target and the reason the moneyline sits where it does.
Moneyline
Our win probability against the raw price, not a de-vigged one, so both sides of a game can read slightly negative. A positive number on a plus price is the combination worth a second look.
Why Vegas Odds Matter For DFS
Ownership follows run environment. The games with the highest totals draw the most rostered bats, and the teams with the shortest moneylines draw the most stacks, so the board below doubles as a map of where the field will be before a single lineup locks.
The useful part is not agreeing with the market, it is finding where the model and the price part company. A team the model likes more than the book is a stack the field will underrate, and that is worth more in a tournament than any projection on its own.
Totals, Park Factors And Weather
Park factors move run expectation before a lineup is written, and the two columns here are separate on purpose: a park can suppress runs while inflating home runs, and those two facts point at different plays.
Today the top run environment is Cleveland at White Sox at a projected 9.65, in a park playing -2% on runs and -4% on home runs. Neither game carries any delay or postponement risk. Dodger Stadium is the weather story instead: 94 degrees with 9 mph blowing out to center, and the forecast expects balls to carry extremely well. Milwaukee is listed as a dome, though the forecast suggests the roof may be open with a breeze out to center, so treat that park as neutral until the roof is confirmed.
Finding Value Rather Than Following It
The highest total on the board is rarely the best value, because everyone can see it. The games worth attacking are the ones where our number sits well above the posted line and the park or the weather explains why the market has not caught up.
Read the edge pills first and the totals second. A modest total with a real edge is a better tournament play than a big total priced correctly, and the moneyline column will usually tell you which side the model actually prefers.