MLB Vegas Odds Today
Every game on the board with the FTA simulated total beside the market number, implied team runs for both sides, and the moneyline. The books posted a full two sided moneyline on all 15 games today and a main game total on 0 of them, so those edges are measured against real prices. Where no clean total was posted the number shown is a fair one rather than an edge.
| Game | Total | Away Runs | Home Runs | Away ML | Home ML | Park | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota at AthleticsSutter Health Park · 8:05 PM CT | 11.38market 10.5, no price posted+0.88 runs | 6.24MIN | 5.14ATH | -13455.8% model vs 57.3% market-1.5 | +12444.2% model vs 44.6% market-0.4 | +32% runs+42% HR | 80°10 mph blowing out to center |
| Kansas City at TorontoRogers Centre · 6:07 PM CT | 9.7market 8.5, no price posted+1.20 runs | 4.65KC | 5.05TOR | +12543.5% model vs 44.4% market-1.0 | -13256.5% model vs 56.9% market-0.4 | +6% runs+19% HR | n/aweather not a factor |
| Milwaukee at MetsCiti Field · 6:10 PM CT | 9.7market 8.5, no price posted+1.20 runs | 5.12MIL | 4.58NYM | -15052.8% model vs 60.0% market-7.2 | +14347.2% model vs 41.2% market+6.0 | -3% runs+8% HR | 77°4 mph blowing left to right |
| Colorado at WashingtonNationals Park · 5:45 PM CT | 9.69market 9.0, no price posted+0.69 runs | 4.62COL | 5.07WAS | +11243.5% model vs 47.2% market-3.7 | -11756.5% model vs 53.9% market+2.6 | +7% runs+11% HR | 82°11 mph blowing out to center |
| Houston at YankeesYankee Stadium · 6:05 PM CT | 9.31market 9.0, no price posted+0.31 runs | 5.17HOU | 4.13NYY | +11657.6% model vs 46.3% market+11.3 | -12442.4% model vs 55.4% market-13.0 | -4% runs+14% HR | 77°4 mph blowing right to left |
| Cubs at ArizonaChase Field · 2:40 PM CT | 8.95market 8.5, no price posted+0.45 runs | 4.19CHC | 4.76ARI | -10140.8% model vs 50.2% market-9.4 | -10459.2% model vs 51.0% market+8.2 | 0% runs-8% HR | n/aweather not a factor |
| Dodgers at AtlantaTruist Park · 6:15 PM CT | 8.89market 8.5, no price posted+0.39 runs | 4.63LAD | 4.26ATL | -12450.0% model vs 55.4% market-5.4 | +11650.0% model vs 46.3% market+3.7 | -5% runs+1% HR | 84°10 mph blowing out to right |
| Pittsburgh at San DiegoPetco Park · 3:10 PM CT | 8.87market 8.0, no price posted+0.87 runs | 4.22PIT | 4.64SD | +12043.5% model vs 45.5% market-2.0 | -12856.5% model vs 56.1% market+0.4 | 0% runs+8% HR | 66°8 mph blowing in from center |
| Cincinnati at San FranciscoOracle Park · 2:45 PM CT | 8.6market 7.5, no price posted+1.10 runs | 4.51CIN | 4.09SF | +10250.0% model vs 49.5% market+0.5 | -10950.0% model vs 52.2% market-2.2 | +7% runs-7% HR | 67°19 mph blowing out to right |
| Cleveland at AngelsAngel Stadium · 3:07 PM CT | 8.51market 8.5, no price posted+0.01 runs | 4.62CLE | 3.89LAA | -13455.2% model vs 57.3% market-2.1 | +12644.8% model vs 44.2% market+0.6 | +2% runs+7% HR | 83°10 mph blowing out to right |
| Texas at White SoxRate Field · 6:40 PM CT | 8.24market 8.0, no price posted+0.24 runs | 4.04TEX | 4.2CHW | +11444.6% model vs 46.7% market-2.1 | -12255.4% model vs 55.0% market+0.4 | +6% runs+10% HR | 77°8 mph blowing right to left |
| Tampa Bay at DetroitComerica Park · 12:10 PM CT | 8.05market 7.5, no price posted+0.55 runs | 3.87TB | 4.18DET | +10645.2% model vs 48.5% market-3.3 | -11354.8% model vs 53.1% market+1.7 | -8% runs-16% HR | 80°10 mph blowing in from right |
| Baltimore at St. LouisBusch Stadium · 6:45 PM CT | 7.98market 8.5, no price posted-0.52 runs | 4.42BAL | 3.56STL | -10456.5% model vs 51.0% market+5.5 | -10343.5% model vs 50.7% market-7.3 | -3% runs-6% HR | 85°8 mph blowing in from center |
| Boston at MiamiloanDepot park · 5:40 PM CT | 7.81market 7.5, no price posted+0.31 runs | 4.13BOS | 3.68MIA | -13451.5% model vs 57.3% market-5.8 | +12648.5% model vs 44.2% market+4.3 | -5% runs-13% HR | n/aweather not a factor |
| Philadelphia at SeattleT-Mobile Park · 3:10 PM CT | 7.29market 7.0, no price posted+0.29 runs | 3.82PHI | 3.46SEA | -12651.9% model vs 55.8% market-3.8 | +11948.1% model vs 45.7% market+2.4 | -5% runs+4% HR | n/aweather not a factor |
Moneyline prices are the best of the two books posted this morning, taken as raw implied probability rather than de-vigged, so the two sides sum to slightly more than one hundred percent. That is deliberate and it is why a game can show a small negative edge on both sides.
Two games flip the favorite outright. The model makes Cincinnati a -136 favorite over St. Louis while the books have St. Louis at -108, and it makes Seattle a narrow favorite at Milwaukee while the books have Milwaukee at -124. Those are the two widest disagreements on the board and both are worth a manual look before they anchor anything, because a sign flip usually means one side is holding information the other is not.
How To Read This Board
Game total
The gold number is the FTA simulated total. No book priced a main game total today, only scattered alternate lines, so there is no honest edge to publish in this column and none is shown. Use the number as a ranking of run environment rather than as a bet.
Implied team runs
The two runs columns are what the simulation gives each side on its own. They are the fastest read on which offence to stack, because a team projected near five runs is carrying far more upside than the game total alone tells you.
Moneyline
Each side shows our model win percentage and the better of the two posted prices, converted to an implied probability. A green pill means FTA likes that side more than the market does.
Why Vegas Odds Matter For DFS
A daily fantasy slate is really a set of bets on run scoring, and the betting market is the fastest public estimate of where those runs land. Team implied totals tell you which offences are being priced for a big night, and that is the single best starting point for a stack. When our simulation and the market agree on a game, the read is safe and usually expensive in ownership. When they disagree, that is where the leverage sits.
The trap is treating a high total as an automatic green light. Ownership follows totals closely, so the top game on the board is almost always the chalkiest offence on it. The board is a map of where the field will be, and reading it that way is more useful than reading it as a list of recommendations.
Totals, Park Factors And Weather
A park factor is an input, not a conclusion. A hitter friendly stadium raises the ceiling on a game but it cannot manufacture runs out of two arms who are pitching well, and a pitcher friendly park does not make a bad matchup safe. The right way to use the two columns together is to let the simulated total set the priority and let the park explain the shape, particularly on home runs, where the spread between stadiums is far wider than it is on runs.
The top run environment on the August 26, 2026 board is Minnesota at Athletics at a projected 11.38 runs, in a park running +32% on runs and +42% on home runs. Nine games is a short board, so the spread from top to bottom is narrower than usual and the park column is doing more of the work than the totals are.
Where The Model And The Market Disagree Most
The sharpest disagreements on this board are not totals, they are sides. Our simulation has Cincinnati favored at home against St. Louis while the market has the Cardinals favored instead, an eight point gap in win probability and a straight sign flip on who is expected to win. Seattle at Milwaukee is the same shape a little smaller. Those two games are where the leverage sits today, and they are also the two where a late lineup or bullpen note is most likely to explain the gap.
Finding Value Rather Than Following It
Value on this board is the gap between our number and the posted one, not the biggest total or the shortest price. A game where the simulation and the market are several points apart on a side is worth more attention than a game where they agree at a high number, because the disagreement is the only place an edge can live.
Treat every edge here as a starting point rather than a bet slip. These are morning prices, lineups have not posted, and a scratch or a late arm change can move a total by half a run. Shop the number, confirm the lineup, and let the size of the disagreement decide how much of your roster you are willing to build around it.