Every anytime touchdown price for the NFL week, set against the FTA touchdown model. Game Cards show each team’s players with their chance to score and the DraftKings and FanDuel price. Best TD Spots ranks every player by edge so the prices worth betting rise to the top.

How the TD Zone model works

Team touchdowns start from the implied team total. Across every 2025 game, a team’s players scored about one rushing or receiving touchdown for every eight points the team put up. Each player’s share of those touchdowns comes from his own carries and targets, valued by how often a touch from that spot on the field actually scored. A carry at the one yard line is worth more than half a touchdown, while one from midfield is worth almost nothing. Shares blend last season with this one, are pulled toward the position average so one big game cannot swing a player, and are weighted by the current depth chart.

Reading TD%, fair odds and edge

TD% is the FTA chance a player scores at least once. Fair odds turn that chance into the price you would need to break even. Edge is the FTA chance minus the chance implied by the best DraftKings or FanDuel price, in percentage points, so a positive edge means the posted price is longer than our number says it should be. Market shows the exchange price with its margin removed, so you can see where the FTA model and the betting market disagree. Longshot edges move the most on a single goal line touch, which is why Best TD Spots opens on players with at least a 20 percent chance.

Status flags

When DraftKings, FanDuel and the exchanges have all pulled a player’s touchdown market, the board marks him CHECK and prices his teammates as if he is a coin flip to play. Teammates whose numbers depend on him are marked LINKED. Always confirm inactives before you bet or lock a lineup. Games that have kicked off are greyed out and their prices are hidden.

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