Daily MLB projections for Monday, July 6, 2026: DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy point projections for the 7-game main slate, locking at 6:40 PM ET. Every number below comes from the FTA simulation model with confirmed batting orders, tonight’s park factors and weather, and the 5:40 PM ownership update. Cam Schlittler ($11K DK) leads all arms at 18.1 projected DK points, Shohei Ohtani leads all bats at 11.0 in a Dodger Stadium playing +15% for homers, and the mid-tier pitching pool (May, Jax, Roupp, Gausman between $7.5K and $9K) is where the slate gets won. Full tables by position below, plus tonight’s top stacks and value plays.
How Our MLB DFS Projections Are Built
FTA projections start with thousands of game simulations built on confirmed lineups, then layer in tonight’s specific conditions: park run and home run factors, weather, Vegas totals and implied team scores, batter-versus-pitcher history, and recent form. DraftKings and FanDuel numbers are projected separately because the sites score differently, and each player carries a value figure (points per $1,000 of salary) for both. Ownership projections come from our sim model’s field simulation and update through the afternoon. The tables below show the top projected players at every position; the full sortable pool for both sites lives on the Daily MLB Projections page.
Top Pitcher Projections Tonight
One clear SP1 and a loaded mid-tier. Schlittler pairs the slate-best strikeout projection with a -6% park at the Trop, while May, Jax, Roupp, and Gausman all project within two points of each other at $7.5K to $9K. Note the ownership column: Jax carries workhorse ownership (33%) on an 18% quality-start profile, which makes May at half the ownership the sharper play at the same price.
| Pitcher | Matchup | DK $ | DK Proj | FD $ | FD Proj | K Proj | QS% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | NYY vs TB | $11.0K | 18.1 | $10.9K | 30.8 | 6.4 | 46% | 34% |
| Dustin May | STL vs MIL | $7.7K | 16.3 | $9.1K | 18.8 | 5.2 | 38% | 17% |
| Landen Roupp | SF vs TOR | $8.3K | 16.0 | $9.7K | 22.1 | 5.2 | 45% | 21% |
| Griffin Jax | TB vs NYY | $7.5K | 15.7 | $8.4K | 26.0 | 5.7 | 18% | 33% |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR vs SF | $9.0K | 15.2 | $9.4K | 28.4 | 4.9 | 48% | 26% |
| Walker Buehler | SD vs ARI | $7.5K | 11.0 | $8.6K | 19.2 | 4.1 | 26% | 6% |
| Shane Drohan | MIL vs STL | $7.3K | 10.9 | $7.6K | 26.0 | 3.6 | 4% | 8% |
| Freddy Peralta | NYM vs ATL | $8.0K | 10.6 | $9.0K | 29.7 | 4.0 | 33% | 6% |
| Miles Mikolas | WAS vs HOU | $5.5K | 9.5 | $6.9K | 15.2 | 2.8 | 32% | 6% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | ATL vs NYM | $7.1K | 9.3 | $7.0K | 21.0 | 3.9 | 9% | 11% |
Top Hitter Projections by Position
Hitters are ranked by DraftKings projection with FanDuel pricing and projections alongside. The environments drive everything tonight: Dodger Stadium plays +15% for homers, the Astros-Nationals game carries the slate-high 10.6 total, and Truist adds +9% to homers for Mets-Braves. Oracle Park (-24% HR) suppresses both the Blue Jays and Giants pools.
| Player | Matchup | DK $ | DK Proj | FD $ | FD Proj | HR% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | ATL vs NYM | $4.7K | 8.8 | $3.3K | 10.8 | 20.4% | 14% |
| Hunter Goodman | COL vs LAD | $5.7K | 8.7 | $3.8K | 13.8 | 26.1% | 7% |
| Gabriel Moreno | ARI vs SD | $3.8K | 7.9 | $3.0K | 10.0 | 11.5% | 12% |
| Ivan Herrera | STL vs MIL | $3.9K | 7.5 | $3.5K | 11.1 | 13.7% | 6% |
| Francisco Alvarez | NYM vs ATL | $3.3K | 7.3 | $2.6K | 9.1 | 15.1% | 5% |
| Player | Matchup | DK $ | DK Proj | FD $ | FD Proj | HR% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD vs COL | $6.5K | 11.0 | $4.2K | 14.8 | 29.4% | 23% |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD vs COL | $6.0K | 9.3 | $3.7K | 12.8 | 21.4% | 8% |
| Luis Garcia | WAS vs HOU | $4.1K | 9.2 | $3.2K | nan | 22.5% | 14% |
| Matt Olson | ATL vs NYM | $5.0K | 8.5 | $3.6K | 11.1 | 20.4% | 10% |
| Yandy Diaz | TB vs NYY | $5.3K | 8.1 | $3.7K | 9.5 | 16.9% | 2% |
| Player | Matchup | DK $ | DK Proj | FD $ | FD Proj | HR% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | ARI vs SD | $5.0K | 8.9 | $3.5K | 11.6 | 16.8% | 13% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD vs ARI | $4.7K | 8.8 | $3.1K | 11.5 | 13.0% | 15% |
| Jose Altuve | HOU vs WAS | $3.6K | 8.5 | $3.0K | 10.7 | 15.4% | 16% |
| Ozzie Albies | ATL vs NYM | $4.2K | 8.4 | $3.4K | 10.9 | 14.7% | 10% |
| Willi Castro | COL vs LAD | $4.5K | 8.3 | $2.8K | 11.2 | 19.6% | 9% |
| Player | Matchup | DK $ | DK Proj | FD $ | FD Proj | HR% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Mead | WAS vs HOU | $4.4K | 8.5 | $3.0K | 9.3 | 18.9% | 15% |
| Bo Bichette | NYM vs ATL | $4.3K | 8.5 | $2.9K | 10.2 | 13.4% | 10% |
| Isaac Paredes | HOU vs WAS | $4.0K | 8.1 | $2.9K | 9.2 | 16.7% | 18% |
| Junior Caminero | TB vs NYY | $6.3K | 8.0 | $4.2K | 11.6 | 21.0% | 2% |
| Manny Machado | SD vs ARI | $4.2K | 7.9 | $3.0K | 11.2 | 16.1% | 9% |
| Player | Matchup | DK $ | DK Proj | FD $ | FD Proj | HR% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | NYM vs ATL | $4.2K | 9.4 | $2.9K | 10.8 | 18.5% | 17% |
| C.J. Abrams | WAS vs HOU | $5.4K | 8.9 | $3.9K | 11.5 | 17.9% | 16% |
| Geraldo Perdomo | ARI vs SD | $3.8K | 8.7 | $3.0K | 10.5 | 9.6% | 11% |
| Mookie Betts | LAD vs COL | $4.8K | 7.8 | $3.2K | 12.1 | 12.3% | 20% |
| Ezequiel Tovar | COL vs LAD | $3.9K | 6.9 | $2.5K | 8.7 | 20.0% | 1% |
| Player | Matchup | DK $ | DK Proj | FD $ | FD Proj | HR% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU vs WAS | $6.2K | 10.9 | $4.4K | 15.2 | 30.7% | 19% |
| James Wood | WAS vs HOU | $5.9K | 10.4 | $4.5K | 14.0 | 24.4% | 19% |
| Juan Soto | NYM vs ATL | $5.8K | 10.3 | $4.0K | 12.6 | 20.1% | 14% |
| Corbin Carroll | ARI vs SD | $4.9K | 9.2 | $3.8K | 12.2 | 17.5% | 11% |
| A.J. Ewing | NYM vs ATL | $3.5K | 9.1 | $2.9K | 8.6 | 14.0% | 13% |
| Michael Harris II | ATL vs NYM | $4.4K | 9.0 | $3.1K | 10.1 | 20.7% | 11% |
| Dylan Crews | WAS vs HOU | $3.7K | 8.9 | $2.9K | 8.8 | 19.5% | 11% |
| Andy Pages | LAD vs COL | $5.3K | 8.6 | $3.4K | 13.6 | 18.7% | 13% |
Top Stacks Tonight
The Dodgers against Kyle Freeland (1.12 projected homers allowed, worst on the slate) are the ceiling stack: Ohtani leads off at a 29.4% HR probability with Freeman and Betts behind him, though at a combined 122% team ownership the field is fully aware. The Astros-Nationals game is the correlation play, with Yordan Alvarez’s slate-best 30.7% HR probability on one side and the confirmed Wood-Garcia-Mead core on the other. The Mets against Reynaldo Lopez (9% QS) in the +9% HR Truist air are the leverage stack at roughly half the Dodgers’ ownership.
Value Plays and Salary Savers
Max Kepler ($2.1K DK) is the punt of the slate at a 3.52x value with a 15.1% homer probability, hitting sixth for Arizona. Cam Smith ($2.9K DK) rides the best game environment at 2.90x, Trent Grisham ($4.3K DK, hot 15.4 L10) leads off for the Yankees, and Brady House ($2.0K FD, 4.52x) is the FanDuel-specific saver in the Washington game. On the arms, Dustin May at $7.7K is the value pick of the night against a Cardinals lineup whose top five projected bats all carry cold form tags.
MLB DFS Projections FAQ
How accurate are MLB DFS projections?
No projection system predicts individual baseball games perfectly because baseball has the highest single-game variance of any DFS sport. Good projections win over volume: our sim-based numbers are built to be right on average across hundreds of slates, which is what matters for long-term profit. Use projections to find pricing mistakes and correlation spots rather than treating any single number as a guarantee.
What is the difference between DraftKings and FanDuel MLB projections?
The sites score differently: DraftKings awards more for extra-base hits and stolen bases, while FanDuel uses a flatter scale where a single pitcher slot and higher pitching weight change how much you pay for arms. That is why every player carries separate DK and FD projections and values here, and why the best play on one site is not automatically the best play on the other.
Who has the highest MLB DFS projection today?
Cam Schlittler ($11K DK) leads all pitchers at 18.1 projected DraftKings points at the Trop. Shohei Ohtani ($6.5K DK, $4.2K FD) leads all hitters at 11.0 DK, leading off against Kyle Freeland in a Dodger Stadium playing +15% for homers tonight.
What are the best MLB DFS stacks today?
The Dodgers against Kyle Freeland are the ceiling stack (Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts in a +15% HR park), the Astros-Nationals game carries the slate-high 10.6 total with attackable arms on both sides, and the Mets against Reynaldo Lopez (9% quality-start probability) are the leverage version in the best HR weather on the board.
When are MLB DFS projections updated?
Projections are updated throughout the day and finalized once lineups are confirmed, usually two to three hours before the main slate locks. Tonight’s numbers reflect confirmed batting orders and the 5:40 PM ownership update.
FTA MLB DFS Tools
Follow @advisors_team on Twitter/X for confirmed lineups and last-minute swaps.
FTA+ gives you early access to picks, premium sim models, deeper projections, and exclusive cheat sheets for every sport.
Upgrade to FTA+ TodayAbout Author
