Every NFL game this week with its spread, moneyline, game total and, most usefully for lineup building, the implied team total behind each side. The board is built from the consensus schedule feed and refreshed weekly, so it does not go stale between seasons.
Why implied team totals matter more than the spread. A game total tells you how many points the market expects on the field. The implied team total splits that between the two offenses, and that split is what actually drives fantasy scoring. A 27-point implied total on a road underdog is a better stacking spot than a 44-point game total on its own would suggest.
How Our Projections Are Actually Doing
The board above is what we expect. Below is what happened. Every completed game carries its final score beside the projection, the actual DraftKings and FanDuel points every projected player scored, and a grade for how well the model ranked them.
Grades use the correlation between projected and actual points rather than raw error, because ranking players correctly is what matters for a lineup, and a game where everyone outscored expectations should not be marked down for it. A single game is a small sample, so the season figure is the number worth reading.
How the projections have actually done. Across 64 completed games and 1386 player scores this season, mean absolute error is 4.31 DraftKings points with a bias of -0.39, correlation between projected and actual is +0.703, and that is +36.2 percent better than simply projecting every player at the slate average. Season grade B. A positive bias means the projections run high. A single game is far too small a sample to judge, which is why the season figure leads.
Completed Games
6grade A
4grade B
4grade C
1grade D
1grade F
16games graded
Show
CJaguars 22, Bengals 17MAE 5.47 · corr +0.614 · 21 players
Projected 25.2 to 27.0 for a total of 52.2, against a market total of 51.5. Actual total 39.
5.47Mean abs error
-0.02Bias
+0.614Correlation
+23.4 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee HigginsCIN WR | 14.7 | 29.7 | +15.0 | 21.2 | 6.1% |
| Joe BurrowCIN QB | 21.1 | 28.7 | +7.6 | 25.7 | 5.5% |
| Chase BrownCIN RB | 17.5 | 19.1 | +1.6 | 13.6 | 30.7% |
| Brenton StrangeJAX TE | 9.5 | 16.5 | +7.0 | 13.0 | 16.7% |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN WR | 6.0 | 15.2 | +9.2 | 11.7 | 4.2% |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX QB | 20.7 | 13.1 | -7.6 | 13.1 | 8.5% |
| Mike GesickiCIN TE | 7.3 | 13.0 | +5.7 | 11.5 | 1.3% |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX RB | 13.3 | 11.1 | -2.2 | 10.1 | 5.1% |
| Brian Thomas Jr.JAX WR | 7.0 | 9.7 | +2.7 | 8.7 | 1.2% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX RB | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | 9.5 | 0.0% |
ALions 26, Panthers 32MAE 4.66 · corr +0.778 · 24 players
Projected 28.4 to 23.8 for a total of 52.2, against a market total of 52.5. Actual total 58.
4.66Mean abs error
-2.3Bias
+0.778Correlation
+54.0 percentvs baseline
24Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR WR | 16.3 | 48.2 | +31.9 | 38.2 | 17.6% |
| Chuba HubbardCAR RB | 17.0 | 28.9 | +11.9 | 25.4 | 13.4% |
| Bryce YoungCAR QB | 18.6 | 24.5 | +5.8 | 21.5 | 6.4% |
| Jared GoffDET QB | 19.6 | 23.5 | +3.9 | 20.5 | 5.0% |
| Sam LaPortaDET TE | 11.8 | 22.4 | +10.6 | 18.4 | 20.3% |
| Jameson WilliamsDET WR | 11.4 | 19.2 | +7.8 | 13.2 | 1.3% |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET RB | 27.5 | 17.7 | -9.8 | 15.7 | 28.6% |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET WR | 19.6 | 15.5 | -4.1 | 11.5 | 10.1% |
| Isaac TeSlaaDET WR | 4.8 | 13.5 | +8.7 | 11.5 | 0.6% |
| John Metchie IIICAR WR | 4.4 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 5.2 | 0.0% |
CPatriots 29, Bills 26MAE 5.12 · corr +0.586 · 23 players
Projected 21.2 to 28.8 for a total of 50.1, against a market total of 49.5. Actual total 55.
5.12Mean abs error
-1.1Bias
+0.586Correlation
+35.8 percentvs baseline
23Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeNE QB | 18.0 | 28.2 | +10.2 | 27.2 | 1.5% |
| Keon ColemanBUF WR | 4.6 | 26.6 | +22.0 | 20.6 | 0.1% |
| Romeo DoubsNE WR | 9.5 | 23.8 | +14.3 | 20.8 | 0.8% |
| Josh AllenBUF QB | 25.1 | 19.5 | -5.6 | 19.5 | 5.1% |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE RB | 10.9 | 18.4 | +7.5 | 16.9 | 0.8% |
| James Cook IIIBUF RB | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | 15.3 | 2.7% |
| Khalil ShakirBUF WR | 10.4 | 14.2 | +3.8 | 9.7 | 3.3% |
| Efton Chism IIINE WR | 1.1 | 12.2 | +11.1 | 11.2 | 0.0% |
| Hunter HenryNE TE | 8.6 | 11.2 | +2.6 | 8.7 | 3.8% |
| Mack HollinsNE WR | 10.2 | 8.3 | -1.9 | 6.8 | 14.3% |
ACowboys 34, Texans 30MAE 5.39 · corr +0.798 · 22 players
Projected 23.6 to 25.9 for a total of 49.5, against a market total of 48.5. Actual total 64.
5.39Mean abs error
-2.02Bias
+0.798Correlation
+44.2 percentvs baseline
22Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambDAL WR | 17.8 | 44.3 | +26.5 | 32.8 | 3.6% |
| Nico CollinsHOU WR | 16.5 | 33.8 | +17.3 | 27.3 | 3.7% |
| Javonte WilliamsDAL RB | 15.7 | 31.3 | +15.7 | 28.8 | 2.5% |
| C.J. StroudHOU QB | 19.0 | 26.1 | +7.1 | 23.1 | 5.3% |
| Dak PrescottDAL QB | 19.3 | 21.1 | +1.8 | 18.1 | 1.6% |
| Jaylin NoelHOU WR | 4.0 | 11.9 | +7.9 | 10.4 | 0.2% |
| George PickensDAL WR | 14.9 | 9.5 | -5.4 | 8.5 | 4.0% |
| Woody MarksHOU RB | 9.1 | 8.2 | -0.9 | 8.2 | 0.3% |
| Ryan FlournoyDAL WR | 8.7 | 7.7 | -1.0 | 5.7 | 8.2% |
| Xavier HutchinsonHOU WR | 7.2 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 6.1 | 1.1% |
ABroncos 14, 49ers 24MAE 3.17 · corr +0.826 · 22 players
Projected 23.1 to 25.6 for a total of 48.7, against a market total of 48.5. Actual total 38.
3.17Mean abs error
+0.34Bias
+0.826Correlation
+51.1 percentvs baseline
22Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock PurdySF QB | 19.5 | 19.6 | +0.1 | 19.6 | 0.6% |
| RJ HarveyDEN RB | 10.3 | 19.3 | +9.0 | 14.3 | 0.3% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.SF WR | 10.1 | 18.0 | +7.9 | 15.5 | 0.3% |
| George KittleSF TE | 14.3 | 17.0 | +2.7 | 15.0 | 16.7% |
| Christian McCaffreySF RB | 22.3 | 16.0 | -6.3 | 14.5 | 12.9% |
| Jaylen WaddleDEN WR | 13.2 | 14.5 | +1.3 | 12.0 | 0.3% |
| Bo NixDEN QB | 18.1 | 13.6 | -4.5 | 13.6 | 1.7% |
| Mike EvansSF WR | 11.1 | 12.6 | +1.5 | 10.1 | 0.0% |
| Tyler BadieDEN RB | 2.2 | 7.9 | +5.7 | 6.9 | 0.0% |
| Pat BryantDEN WR | 6.5 | 7.7 | +1.2 | 6.2 | 0.1% |
BChiefs 30, Raiders 27MAE 4.62 · corr +0.742 · 23 players
Projected 26.9 to 21.6 for a total of 48.5, against a market total of 47.5. Actual total 57.
4.62Mean abs error
-2.66Bias
+0.742Correlation
+47.5 percentvs baseline
23Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIKC RB | 20.5 | 33.9 | +13.4 | 30.4 | 6.9% |
| Tyquan ThorntonKC WR | 5.6 | 31.1 | +25.5 | 25.6 | 0.3% |
| Kirk CousinsLV QB | 14.9 | 26.6 | +11.7 | 23.6 | 0.1% |
| Brock BowersLV TE | 18.0 | 20.6 | +2.6 | 17.6 | 8.8% |
| Ashton JeantyLV RB | 16.6 | 18.6 | +2.0 | 15.6 | 2.5% |
| Patrick MahomesKC QB | 19.9 | 17.0 | -2.9 | 17.0 | 1.6% |
| Michael MayerLV TE | 6.6 | 16.2 | +9.6 | 12.2 | 0.0% |
| Ian ThomasLV TE | 0.5 | 11.2 | +10.7 | 10.2 | 0.0% |
| Xavier WorthyKC WR | 8.9 | 11.0 | +2.1 | 9.0 | 0.5% |
| Tre TuckerLV WR | 9.2 | 8.4 | -0.8 | 6.4 | 0.1% |
AFalcons 45, Saints 24MAE 4.04 · corr +0.792 · 22 players
Projected 23.8 to 24.6 for a total of 48.3, against a market total of 47.5. Actual total 69.
4.04Mean abs error
-1.2Bias
+0.792Correlation
+52.2 percentvs baseline
22Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonATL RB | 24.8 | 30.7 | +5.9 | 27.2 | 23.7% |
| Brian Robinson Jr.ATL RB | 5.5 | 25.7 | +20.2 | 25.2 | 0.0% |
| Alvin KamaraNO RB | 12.0 | 22.8 | +10.8 | 20.3 | 12.1% |
| Chris OlaveNO WR | 20.1 | 22.6 | +2.5 | 15.6 | 24.8% |
| Devaughn VeleNO WR | 11.3 | 17.4 | +6.1 | 14.4 | 14.0% |
| Tyler ShoughNO QB | 21.0 | 15.9 | -5.1 | 15.9 | 18.7% |
| Drake LondonATL WR | 18.6 | 14.6 | -4.0 | 12.1 | 20.7% |
| Jahan DotsonATL WR | 5.5 | 13.4 | +7.9 | 12.4 | 3.9% |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL QB | 15.8 | 12.7 | -3.1 | 12.7 | 2.5% |
| Juwan JohnsonNO TE | 10.9 | 11.9 | +1.0 | 8.9 | 3.1% |
BColts 30, Commanders 13MAE 4.13 · corr +0.69 · 20 players
Projected 26.1 to 20.9 for a total of 47.0, against a market total of 46.5. Actual total 43.
4.13Mean abs error
+2.19Bias
+0.69Correlation
-1.8 percentvs baseline
20Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan TaylorIND RB | 22.3 | 22.7 | +0.4 | 22.2 | 15.3% |
| Treylon BurksWAS WR | 5.4 | 11.7 | +6.3 | 11.2 | 0.0% |
| Daniel JonesIND QB | 17.4 | 9.9 | -7.5 | 8.9 | 6.1% |
| Dyami BrownWAS WR | 4.2 | 9.5 | +5.3 | 8.0 | 0.2% |
| Laquon TreadwellIND WR | 6.2 | 9.2 | +3.0 | 6.7 | 0.5% |
| Tyler WarrenIND TE | 15.2 | 9.1 | -6.1 | 6.6 | 8.6% |
| Stefon DiggsWAS WR | 14.0 | 8.5 | -5.5 | 6.0 | 1.2% |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS RB | 11.9 | 7.0 | -5.0 | 6.0 | 0.7% |
| Ashton DulinIND WR | 3.0 | 5.9 | +2.9 | 4.4 | 0.0% |
| Marcus MariotaWAS QB | 16.6 | 5.3 | -11.3 | 5.3 | 8.4% |
BCardinals 24, Giants 36MAE 4.03 · corr +0.696 · 23 players
Projected 23.3 to 21.6 for a total of 44.9, against a market total of 44.5. Actual total 60.
4.03Mean abs error
-0.56Bias
+0.696Correlation
+33.2 percentvs baseline
23Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik NabersNYG WR | 13.3 | 26.2 | +12.9 | 20.2 | 4.9% |
| Jameis WinstonNYG QB | 14.2 | 20.0 | +5.8 | 20.0 | 2.1% |
| Michael WilsonARI WR | 13.5 | 16.5 | +3.0 | 13.0 | 12.3% |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG TE | 11.0 | 13.6 | +2.6 | 10.1 | 2.0% |
| Jacoby BrissettARI QB | 16.5 | 13.4 | -3.1 | 13.4 | 4.3% |
| Malachi FieldsNYG WR | 5.9 | 13.2 | +7.3 | 12.2 | 0.6% |
| Tyler AllgeierARI RB | 7.5 | 12.9 | +5.4 | 11.9 | 0.0% |
| Trey McBrideARI TE | 16.6 | 10.1 | -6.5 | 6.6 | 16.3% |
| Elijah HigginsARI TE | 2.0 | 9.9 | +7.9 | 8.9 | 0.0% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI WR | 7.5 | 8.2 | +0.7 | 7.7 | 0.2% |
FJets 12, Bears 23MAE 5.28 · corr +0.4 · 21 players
Projected 20.2 to 23.9 for a total of 44.0, against a market total of 43.5. Actual total 35.
5.28Mean abs error
+0.88Bias
+0.4Correlation
+8.8 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle MonangaiCHI RB | 8.6 | 31.0 | +22.4 | 27.5 | 0.0% |
| Rome OdunzeCHI WR | 7.9 | 15.4 | +7.5 | 12.4 | 0.0% |
| Isaiah WilliamsNYJ WR | 6.6 | 15.3 | +8.7 | 14.3 | 0.2% |
| Colston LovelandCHI TE | 9.0 | 11.7 | +2.7 | 8.7 | 0.1% |
| Luther Burden IIICHI WR | 12.1 | 11.4 | -0.7 | 9.4 | 2.1% |
| Tyson BagentCHI QB | 16.4 | 9.8 | -6.5 | 9.8 | 0.0% |
| Geno SmithNYJ QB | 15.2 | 8.8 | -6.4 | 8.8 | 1.3% |
| Braelon AllenNYJ RB | 13.1 | 8.7 | -4.4 | 7.7 | 1.7% |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI RB | 15.0 | 8.4 | -6.6 | 6.4 | 5.5% |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ WR | 17.3 | 5.7 | -11.6 | 4.2 | 16.8% |
CRams 24, Eagles 20MAE 5.11 · corr +0.641 · 21 players
Projected 23.8 to 19.9 for a total of 43.7, against a market total of 42.5. Actual total 44.
5.11Mean abs error
-0.14Bias
+0.641Correlation
+32.2 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren WilliamsLA RB | 14.1 | 36.7 | +22.6 | 31.7 | 2.6% |
| Puka NacuaLA WR | 18.2 | 30.7 | +12.5 | 23.2 | 6.6% |
| Darius CooperPHI WR | 5.0 | 18.3 | +13.3 | 16.8 | 0.0% |
| Matthew StaffordLA QB | 16.8 | 14.7 | -2.1 | 11.7 | 0.4% |
| Jalen HurtsPHI QB | 16.7 | 13.5 | -3.2 | 13.5 | 0.1% |
| Tyler HigbeeLA TE | 8.2 | 11.7 | +3.5 | 9.2 | 0.2% |
| Davante AdamsLA WR | 15.7 | 7.2 | -8.5 | 5.2 | 0.1% |
| Makai LemonPHI WR | 9.4 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 4.2 | 0.1% |
| Tank BigsbyPHI RB | 2.3 | 5.5 | +3.2 | 5.5 | 0.0% |
| Dontayvion WicksPHI WR | 11.6 | 4.8 | -6.8 | 3.3 | 0.5% |
DChargers 23, Seahawks 30MAE 4.64 · corr +0.534 · 21 players
Projected 17.7 to 25.8 for a total of 43.5, against a market total of 42.5. Actual total 53.
4.64Mean abs error
+0.13Bias
+0.534Correlation
+18.1 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel WilsonSEA RB | 11.0 | 27.0 | +16.0 | 25.5 | 0.0% |
| Sam DarnoldSEA QB | 17.7 | 14.3 | -3.4 | 14.3 | 2.1% |
| Omarion HamptonLAC RB | 9.8 | 13.3 | +3.5 | 12.3 | 0.0% |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA WR | 22.2 | 12.6 | -9.6 | 10.1 | 5.5% |
| Justin HerbertLAC QB | 14.7 | 12.6 | -2.1 | 11.6 | 0.0% |
| Rashid ShaheedSEA WR | 7.0 | 12.3 | +5.2 | 11.8 | 0.2% |
| Kimani VidalLAC RB | 1.9 | 11.6 | +9.7 | 10.6 | 0.0% |
| Keaton MitchellLAC RB | 6.0 | 11.3 | +5.3 | 8.8 | 0.0% |
| Tre' HarrisLAC WR | 8.2 | 9.0 | +0.8 | 7.5 | 0.1% |
| Oronde Gadsden IILAC TE | 7.2 | 8.8 | +1.6 | 6.3 | 0.1% |
ATitans 18, Ravens 24MAE 3.05 · corr +0.852 · 21 players
Projected 15.3 to 27.6 for a total of 42.9, against a market total of 42.5. Actual total 42.
3.05Mean abs error
-0.96Bias
+0.852Correlation
+58.4 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay FlowersBAL WR | 16.8 | 28.8 | +12.0 | 21.8 | 3.4% |
| Carnell TateTEN WR | 10.9 | 25.5 | +14.6 | 17.0 | 3.2% |
| Lamar JacksonBAL QB | 20.2 | 18.9 | -1.4 | 18.9 | 1.2% |
| Cam WardTEN QB | 11.9 | 16.6 | +4.6 | 16.6 | 0.1% |
| Derrick HenryBAL RB | 20.2 | 15.9 | -4.3 | 14.9 | 4.2% |
| Mark AndrewsBAL TE | 11.3 | 13.7 | +2.4 | 11.2 | 4.4% |
| Tony PollardTEN RB | 10.4 | 13.0 | +2.6 | 12.0 | 0.0% |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN WR | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | 9.5 | 0.6% |
| Rashod BatemanBAL WR | 7.2 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 5.6 | 1.4% |
| Justice HillBAL RB | 6.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 3.5 | 0.0% |
BPackers 17, Buccaneers 14MAE 2.98 · corr +0.718 · 23 players
Projected 21.1 to 18.5 for a total of 39.6, against a market total of 38.5. Actual total 31.
2.98Mean abs error
+0.29Bias
+0.718Correlation
+24.1 percentvs baseline
23Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker KraftGB TE | 10.6 | 16.5 | +5.9 | 13.5 | 1.7% |
| Jordan LoveGB QB | 16.9 | 14.1 | -2.8 | 14.1 | 1.2% |
| Jalon DanielsTB QB | 15.0 | 13.4 | -1.6 | 13.4 | 0.6% |
| Matthew GoldenGB WR | 13.3 | 11.7 | -1.6 | 10.2 | 8.5% |
| Kenny GainwellTB RB | 6.1 | 10.7 | +4.6 | 9.7 | 0.0% |
| MarShawn LloydGB RB | 6.7 | 9.9 | +3.2 | 7.4 | 0.0% |
| Chris Godwin Jr.TB WR | 7.1 | 9.1 | +2.0 | 6.1 | 0.0% |
| Cade OttonTB TE | 6.9 | 7.7 | +0.8 | 5.7 | 0.2% |
| Christian WatsonGB WR | 15.2 | 7.7 | -7.5 | 6.2 | 2.4% |
| Sean TuckerTB RB | 0.6 | 7.0 | +6.4 | 7.0 | 0.0% |
CDolphins 10, Vikings 15MAE 4.31 · corr +0.621 · 20 players
Projected 14.4 to 24.8 for a total of 39.1, against a market total of 38.5. Actual total 25.
4.31Mean abs error
+0.78Bias
+0.621Correlation
+31.5 percentvs baseline
20Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. HockensonMIN TE | 11.6 | 27.9 | +16.3 | 18.4 | 15.1% |
| Ollie Gordon IIMIA RB | 6.6 | 21.0 | +14.4 | 17.0 | 0.0% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.MIN RB | 17.5 | 16.8 | -0.7 | 14.8 | 15.7% |
| Malik WashingtonMIA WR | 10.6 | 12.0 | +1.4 | 9.5 | 2.4% |
| Kyler MurrayMIN QB | 18.1 | 11.5 | -6.6 | 11.5 | 5.2% |
| Jordan AddisonMIN WR | 14.6 | 9.1 | -5.5 | 7.1 | 1.0% |
| Malik WillisMIA QB | 12.8 | 3.5 | -9.3 | 2.5 | 0.0% |
| Myles PriceMIN WR | 1.7 | 2.8 | +1.1 | 1.8 | 0.0% |
| Will KacmarekMIA TE | 1.2 | 2.5 | +1.3 | 2.0 | 0.0% |
| Tai FeltonMIN WR | 4.7 | 2.4 | -2.3 | 1.9 | 0.0% |
ASteelers 24, Browns 27MAE 3.56 · corr +0.815 · 23 players
Projected 20.7 to 18.1 for a total of 38.7, against a market total of 38.5. Actual total 51.
3.56Mean abs error
-2.15Bias
+0.815Correlation
+45.8 percentvs baseline
23Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersPIT QB | 14.5 | 24.0 | +9.5 | 24.0 | 0.4% |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE RB | 12.4 | 21.6 | +9.2 | 18.6 | 1.6% |
| DK MetcalfPIT WR | 11.3 | 19.5 | +8.2 | 14.0 | 1.9% |
| Roman WilsonPIT WR | 5.8 | 16.4 | +10.7 | 14.9 | 0.3% |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT RB | 18.9 | 15.6 | -3.3 | 14.1 | 25.9% |
| Deshaun WatsonCLE QB | 15.5 | 14.9 | -0.6 | 13.9 | 1.4% |
| Denzel BostonCLE WR | 8.8 | 12.9 | +4.2 | 10.9 | 0.1% |
| Darnell WashingtonPIT TE | 4.8 | 11.7 | +6.9 | 10.2 | 0.1% |
| Harold Fannin Jr.CLE TE | 10.7 | 11.7 | +1.0 | 10.2 | 3.0% |
| KC Concepcion Jr.CLE WR | 10.2 | 11.4 | +1.2 | 8.9 | 13.2% |
How to read the board
Games are grouped by day in kickoff order. The favorite on each card is picked out in gold, and the chip in the top right tags the game shape: a grind at 42 points or under, a shootout at 49 or over, average in between. Those are the same bands the FTA showdown research uses, so the language carries across the site.
Win probability is de-vigged from the two moneylines, so the pair adds to 100 rather than the 104 or so the raw prices imply. The second tab ranks all 32 implied team totals on the slate, which is the fastest way to find the offences the market likes before you start building.
What this pairs with
Once you have the spots, the NFL Strength of Schedule tool grades the matchups, the NFL Bacon Station carries defense-allowed and red zone usage, and the BaconLab optimizer builds the lineups. FTA+ members can export the whole board to CSV and drop it straight into their own model.