Every NFL game this week with its spread, moneyline, game total and, most usefully for lineup building, the implied team total behind each side. The board is built from the consensus schedule feed and refreshed weekly, so it does not go stale between seasons.
Why implied team totals matter more than the spread. A game total tells you how many points the market expects on the field. The implied team total splits that between the two offenses, and that split is what actually drives fantasy scoring. A 27-point implied total on a road underdog is a better stacking spot than a 44-point game total on its own would suggest.
How Our Projections Are Actually Doing
The board above is what we expect. Below is what happened. Every completed game carries its final score beside the projection, the actual DraftKings and FanDuel points every projected player scored, and a grade for how well the model ranked them.
Grades use the correlation between projected and actual points rather than raw error, because ranking players correctly is what matters for a lineup, and a game where everyone outscored expectations should not be marked down for it. A single game is a small sample, so the season figure is the number worth reading.
How the projections have actually done. Across 79 completed games and 1713 player scores this season, mean absolute error is 4.33 DraftKings points with a bias of -0.42, correlation between projected and actual is +0.709, and that is +36.4 percent better than simply projecting every player at the slate average. Season grade B. A positive bias means the projections run high. A single game is far too small a sample to judge, which is why the season figure leads.
Completed Games
6grade A
6grade B
1grade C
1grade D
1grade F
15games graded
Show
ABills 37, Rams 34MAE 4.65 · corr +0.917 · 24 players
Projected 26.3 to 29.8 for a total of 56.2, against a market total of 55.5. Actual total 71.
4.65Mean abs error
-1.99Bias
+0.917Correlation
+54.1 percentvs baseline
24Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka NacuaLA WR | 23.2 | 40.7 | +17.5 | 29.2 | 33.0% |
| Josh AllenBUF QB | 24.6 | 34.5 | +9.9 | 31.5 | 9.0% |
| Matthew StaffordLA QB | 21.8 | 30.3 | +8.6 | 27.3 | 10.1% |
| James Cook IIIBUF RB | 16.1 | 26.8 | +10.7 | 22.3 | 3.9% |
| Davante AdamsLA WR | 15.3 | 22.1 | +6.8 | 19.6 | 6.2% |
| Kyren WilliamsLA RB | 19.1 | 19.6 | +0.5 | 16.6 | 32.6% |
| Blake CorumLA RB | 7.3 | 16.2 | +8.9 | 14.7 | 0.1% |
| Tyler HigbeeLA TE | 7.4 | 13.3 | +5.9 | 10.8 | 0.4% |
| Ty JohnsonBUF RB | 5.5 | 11.2 | +5.7 | 9.2 | 0.0% |
| Khalil ShakirBUF WR | 12.1 | 11.0 | -1.1 | 9.5 | 9.8% |
ALions 45, Cardinals 21MAE 5.08 · corr +0.81 · 22 players
Projected 30.3 to 24.7 for a total of 55.1, against a market total of 55.5. Actual total 66.
5.08Mean abs error
-0.79Bias
+0.81Correlation
+46.3 percentvs baseline
22Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsDET RB | 27.9 | 40.7 | +12.8 | 35.2 | 29.0% |
| Jared GoffDET QB | 21.7 | 28.9 | +7.3 | 28.9 | 8.2% |
| Jacoby BrissettARI QB | 20.1 | 26.3 | +6.2 | 25.8 | 16.3% |
| Trey McBrideARI TE | 20.9 | 21.6 | +0.7 | 17.1 | 31.3% |
| Sam LaPortaDET TE | 13.3 | 19.8 | +6.5 | 17.3 | 14.8% |
| Jameson WilliamsDET WR | 12.2 | 18.7 | +6.5 | 17.7 | 1.7% |
| Teagan QuitorianoARI TE | 1.2 | 15.5 | +14.2 | 14.5 | 0.0% |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET WR | 21.2 | 12.9 | -8.3 | 9.9 | 13.5% |
| Kendrick BourneARI WR | 8.4 | 12.0 | +3.6 | 9.5 | 6.0% |
| Elijah HigginsARI TE | 3.5 | 8.7 | +5.2 | 7.2 | 0.1% |
CBuccaneers 24, Cowboys 16MAE 4.86 · corr +0.607 · 21 players
Projected 19.7 to 29.8 for a total of 49.5, against a market total of 49.5. Actual total 40.
4.86Mean abs error
-0.78Bias
+0.607Correlation
+34.4 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky IrvingTB RB | 12.4 | 34.5 | +22.1 | 30.5 | 1.2% |
| George PickensDAL WR | 15.7 | 31.0 | +15.3 | 23.5 | 11.2% |
| Dak PrescottDAL QB | 22.2 | 17.6 | -4.6 | 14.6 | 7.8% |
| Emeka EgbukaTB WR | 9.5 | 17.2 | +7.7 | 14.2 | 2.6% |
| Javonte WilliamsDAL RB | 18.2 | 14.2 | -4.0 | 13.2 | 9.5% |
| Jalon DanielsTB QB | 17.5 | 13.9 | -3.6 | 13.9 | 12.4% |
| Ryan FlournoyDAL WR | 8.4 | 12.0 | +3.6 | 10.5 | 7.6% |
| Tez JohnsonTB WR | 4.1 | 7.4 | +3.3 | 6.9 | 1.4% |
| Chris Godwin Jr.TB WR | 8.8 | 7.0 | -1.8 | 5.5 | 2.4% |
| Kenny GainwellTB RB | 6.3 | 5.8 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 0.1% |
A49ers 32, Seahawks 29MAE 3.16 · corr +0.822 · 21 players
Projected 22.2 to 25.1 for a total of 47.3, against a market total of 46.5. Actual total 61.
3.16Mean abs error
+0.64Bias
+0.822Correlation
+52.7 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansSF WR | 12.6 | 29.3 | +16.7 | 22.8 | 0.1% |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA WR | 21.9 | 25.8 | +3.9 | 20.3 | 5.4% |
| Christian McCaffreySF RB | 19.3 | 17.3 | -2.0 | 15.8 | 3.4% |
| Brock PurdySF QB | 18.2 | 17.2 | -1.0 | 17.2 | 0.4% |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA RB | 15.1 | 14.2 | -0.8 | 12.2 | 11.5% |
| Sam DarnoldSEA QB | 17.3 | 10.3 | -7.0 | 10.3 | 1.2% |
| Brandin CooksSF WR | 1.9 | 7.7 | +5.8 | 7.2 | 0.0% |
| George KittleSF TE | 12.7 | 7.4 | -5.3 | 4.9 | 9.6% |
| George HolaniSEA RB | 7.4 | 6.1 | -1.3 | 3.1 | 0.1% |
| AJ BarnerSEA TE | 6.9 | 5.0 | -1.9 | 3.5 | 3.0% |
BBears 7, Packers 31MAE 5.1 · corr +0.685 · 21 players
Projected 24.0 to 23.1 for a total of 47.1, against a market total of 46.5. Actual total 38.
5.1Mean abs error
-0.79Bias
+0.685Correlation
+32.9 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian WatsonGB WR | 13.8 | 35.3 | +21.4 | 29.3 | 1.1% |
| Jordan LoveGB QB | 17.3 | 28.3 | +11.0 | 25.3 | 1.0% |
| Matthew GoldenGB WR | 12.9 | 23.3 | +10.4 | 17.3 | 5.6% |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI RB | 19.4 | 17.3 | -2.1 | 15.3 | 2.8% |
| MarShawn LloydGB RB | 10.3 | 16.7 | +6.4 | 16.2 | 0.1% |
| Tucker KraftGB TE | 11.7 | 11.6 | -0.1 | 9.1 | 8.5% |
| Roschon JohnsonCHI RB | 4.3 | 9.0 | +4.7 | 6.5 | 0.0% |
| Luther Burden IIICHI WR | 11.8 | 8.9 | -2.9 | 6.9 | 12.3% |
| Rome OdunzeCHI WR | 9.6 | 6.0 | -3.6 | 3.5 | 0.7% |
| Bo MeltonGB WR | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0% |
BRaiders 17, Patriots 45MAE 5.82 · corr +0.674 · 23 players
Projected 21.1 to 25.0 for a total of 46.1, against a market total of 45.5. Actual total 62.
5.82Mean abs error
-2.67Bias
+0.674Correlation
+23.4 percentvs baseline
23Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeNE QB | 20.3 | 42.5 | +22.1 | 39.5 | 2.7% |
| Brock BowersLV TE | 18.2 | 27.0 | +8.8 | 19.0 | 13.2% |
| DeMario DouglasNE WR | 7.1 | 22.5 | +15.4 | 20.5 | 0.8% |
| Kyle WilliamsNE WR | 4.3 | 18.1 | +13.8 | 16.6 | 0.0% |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE RB | 12.8 | 17.5 | +4.7 | 16.0 | 9.9% |
| Kirk CousinsLV QB | 15.5 | 13.7 | -1.8 | 13.7 | 0.3% |
| Hunter HenryNE TE | 10.2 | 13.4 | +3.2 | 11.9 | 1.5% |
| Dylan LaubeLV RB | 1.0 | 11.5 | +10.5 | 10.0 | 0.0% |
| Efton Chism IIINE WR | 6.0 | 10.9 | +4.9 | 8.4 | 1.8% |
| Eli RaridonNE TE | 3.7 | 10.7 | +7.0 | 8.2 | 0.0% |
BBengals 31, Dolphins 24MAE 3.98 · corr +0.724 · 21 players
Projected 26.8 to 18.5 for a total of 45.3, against a market total of 44.5. Actual total 55.
3.98Mean abs error
-0.76Bias
+0.724Correlation
+34.9 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe BurrowCIN QB | 20.4 | 24.6 | +4.2 | 24.6 | 0.5% |
| Malik WillisMIA QB | 15.7 | 21.9 | +6.2 | 20.9 | 0.8% |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN WR | 20.0 | 19.7 | -0.3 | 16.7 | 0.0% |
| Samaje PerineCIN RB | 5.5 | 15.8 | +10.3 | 14.8 | 0.0% |
| Ollie Gordon IIMIA RB | 10.7 | 14.8 | +4.1 | 14.8 | 0.2% |
| Malik WashingtonMIA WR | 11.9 | 12.1 | +0.2 | 9.1 | 4.6% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA WR | 4.8 | 12.0 | +7.2 | 10.5 | 0.0% |
| Tanner HudsonCIN TE | 2.2 | 10.4 | +8.2 | 8.9 | 0.0% |
| Greg DulcichMIA TE | 7.0 | 9.7 | +2.7 | 7.7 | 0.2% |
| Chase BrownCIN RB | 18.8 | 8.0 | -10.8 | 5.5 | 34.9% |
ARavens 30, Falcons 23MAE 3.67 · corr +0.835 · 20 players
Projected 20.7 to 24.0 for a total of 44.7, against a market total of 44.5. Actual total 53.
3.67Mean abs error
-1.51Bias
+0.835Correlation
+45.7 percentvs baseline
20Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler HuntleyBAL QB | 15.6 | 24.0 | +8.4 | 24.0 | 0.8% |
| Derrick HenryBAL RB | 16.0 | 24.0 | +8.0 | 20.5 | 1.4% |
| Drake LondonATL WR | 18.7 | 21.8 | +3.1 | 15.3 | 19.5% |
| Bijan RobinsonATL RB | 23.2 | 15.8 | -7.5 | 13.8 | 17.0% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL TE | 6.8 | 15.2 | +8.3 | 12.7 | 0.0% |
| Zay FlowersBAL WR | 15.2 | 14.6 | -0.6 | 10.6 | 1.3% |
| Michael Penix Jr.ATL QB | 15.2 | 14.4 | -0.8 | 14.4 | 1.0% |
| Rashod BatemanBAL WR | 5.3 | 11.2 | +5.9 | 8.7 | 0.2% |
| Justice HillBAL RB | 5.1 | 9.8 | +4.7 | 8.8 | 0.0% |
| Devontez WalkerBAL WR | 3.1 | 8.9 | +5.8 | 7.9 | 0.0% |
BColts 22, Steelers 34MAE 5.22 · corr +0.7 · 20 players
Projected 20.2 to 22.6 for a total of 42.8, against a market total of 41.5. Actual total 56.
5.22Mean abs error
-1.08Bias
+0.7Correlation
+34.1 percentvs baseline
20Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WarrenPIT RB | 18.3 | 39.8 | +21.5 | 33.8 | 0.3% |
| Aaron RodgersPIT QB | 15.8 | 22.0 | +6.2 | 22.0 | 1.2% |
| Pat FreiermuthPIT TE | 8.7 | 21.5 | +12.8 | 19.0 | 0.6% |
| Tyler WarrenIND TE | 12.1 | 21.4 | +9.3 | 17.9 | 10.3% |
| Germie BernardPIT WR | 5.9 | 14.4 | +8.5 | 11.4 | 0.1% |
| Jonathan TaylorIND RB | 19.3 | 11.2 | -8.1 | 9.7 | 13.5% |
| Daniel JonesIND QB | 13.9 | 11.1 | -2.9 | 11.1 | 2.6% |
| Keenan AllenIND WR | 8.3 | 9.5 | +1.2 | 7.0 | 0.7% |
| Josh DownsIND WR | 13.0 | 7.7 | -5.3 | 6.2 | 5.8% |
| Laquon TreadwellIND WR | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | 4.4 | 0.0% |
AEagles 17, Jaguars 19MAE 3.38 · corr +0.819 · 24 players
Projected 17.0 to 25.7 for a total of 42.7, against a market total of 41.5. Actual total 36.
3.38Mean abs error
-0.75Bias
+0.819Correlation
+48.1 percentvs baseline
24Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker WashingtonJAX WR | 14.9 | 33.4 | +18.5 | 27.4 | 4.3% |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX QB | 18.6 | 25.7 | +7.1 | 22.7 | 3.4% |
| Darius CooperPHI WR | 6.1 | 15.1 | +9.0 | 14.1 | 5.8% |
| Brenton StrangeJAX TE | 8.6 | 13.8 | +5.2 | 10.3 | 4.8% |
| Jalen HurtsPHI QB | 16.0 | 13.0 | -3.0 | 13.0 | 0.2% |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX RB | 14.4 | 11.6 | -2.8 | 10.6 | 3.6% |
| Dontayvion WicksPHI WR | 9.8 | 11.3 | +1.5 | 8.8 | 0.7% |
| Dallas GoedertPHI TE | 10.3 | 9.8 | -0.5 | 6.8 | 0.0% |
| Makai LemonPHI WR | 8.3 | 9.3 | +0.9 | 6.8 | 3.3% |
| Will ShipleyPHI RB | 9.7 | 8.3 | -1.4 | 7.8 | 0.0% |
FBroncos 23, Chargers 17MAE 4.48 · corr +0.332 · 21 players
Projected 23.3 to 19.4 for a total of 42.7, against a market total of 42.5. Actual total 40.
4.48Mean abs error
+1.75Bias
+0.332Correlation
-23.2 percentvs baseline
21Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. DobbinsDEN RB | 9.5 | 15.4 | +5.9 | 14.4 | 0.4% |
| Kimani VidalLAC RB | 4.0 | 12.6 | +8.6 | 12.1 | 0.0% |
| Justin HerbertLAC QB | 15.7 | 12.2 | -3.5 | 11.2 | 1.3% |
| Courtland SuttonDEN WR | 10.0 | 9.8 | -0.2 | 8.8 | 1.6% |
| Evan EngramDEN TE | 5.6 | 9.5 | +3.9 | 7.5 | 0.4% |
| Bo NixDEN QB | 17.5 | 8.9 | -8.6 | 7.9 | 1.9% |
| Hayden RucciLAC TE | 0.6 | 7.7 | +7.1 | 7.2 | 0.0% |
| Keaton MitchellLAC RB | 8.6 | 5.9 | -2.7 | 4.4 | 0.4% |
| Charlie KolarLAC TE | 3.3 | 5.7 | +2.4 | 3.2 | 0.0% |
| Omarion HamptonLAC RB | 9.3 | 4.9 | -4.4 | 4.4 | 0.0% |
AGiants 27, Commanders 27MAE 5.08 · corr +0.847 · 23 players
Projected 19.2 to 23.3 for a total of 42.5, against a market total of 41.5. Actual total 54.
5.08Mean abs error
-2.58Bias
+0.847Correlation
+42.2 percentvs baseline
23Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden DanielsWAS QB | 18.3 | 35.3 | +16.9 | 32.3 | 3.8% |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG TE | 12.0 | 32.4 | +20.4 | 26.9 | 5.5% |
| Malik NabersNYG WR | 13.2 | 32.1 | +18.9 | 23.6 | 1.4% |
| Jameis WinstonNYG QB | 13.2 | 29.7 | +16.5 | 25.7 | 0.3% |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS RB | 10.1 | 14.2 | +4.1 | 14.2 | 6.3% |
| Terry McLaurinWAS WR | 9.6 | 12.2 | +2.6 | 10.2 | 0.0% |
| Chig OkonkwoWAS TE | 7.3 | 10.0 | +2.7 | 8.0 | 0.7% |
| Cam SkatteboNYG RB | 13.8 | 8.1 | -5.7 | 6.1 | 3.1% |
| Antonio WilliamsWAS WR | 9.1 | 6.1 | -3.0 | 4.6 | 9.0% |
| Theo JohnsonNYG TE | 2.5 | 5.5 | +3.0 | 4.5 | 0.0% |
BVikings 23, Saints 13MAE 4.03 · corr +0.669 · 22 players
Projected 22.0 to 20.4 for a total of 42.4, against a market total of 41.5. Actual total 36.
4.03Mean abs error
+1.81Bias
+0.669Correlation
+15.3 percentvs baseline
22Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr.MIN RB | 17.6 | 22.7 | +5.1 | 17.2 | 20.7% |
| Justin JeffersonMIN WR | 18.9 | 18.8 | -0.1 | 15.8 | 0.0% |
| Kyler MurrayMIN QB | 17.3 | 18.3 | +1.0 | 18.3 | 2.4% |
| Kendre MillerNO RB | 5.6 | 9.0 | +3.4 | 9.0 | 0.0% |
| Chris OlaveNO WR | 17.8 | 8.6 | -9.2 | 6.6 | 1.2% |
| Gavin BartholomewMIN TE | 1.5 | 8.3 | +6.8 | 5.8 | 0.0% |
| Devaughn VeleNO WR | 10.1 | 6.6 | -3.5 | 4.6 | 0.1% |
| Juwan JohnsonNO TE | 10.1 | 5.6 | -4.5 | 3.6 | 0.7% |
| Tai FeltonMIN WR | 3.7 | 4.7 | +1.0 | 3.7 | 0.2% |
| Jeshaun JonesMIN WR | 0.9 | 4.2 | +3.3 | 3.7 | 0.0% |
BBrowns 12, Jets 17MAE 3.75 · corr +0.733 · 22 players
Projected 18.9 to 20.6 for a total of 39.5, against a market total of 38.5. Actual total 29.
3.75Mean abs error
+0.69Bias
+0.733Correlation
+33.9 percentvs baseline
22Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett WilsonNYJ WR | 16.4 | 26.4 | +10.0 | 19.9 | 12.1% |
| Braelon AllenNYJ RB | 16.1 | 21.6 | +5.5 | 18.1 | 20.2% |
| Denzel BostonCLE WR | 10.5 | 13.6 | +3.1 | 12.1 | 1.1% |
| Deshaun WatsonCLE QB | 16.2 | 13.2 | -3.0 | 12.2 | 3.3% |
| Geno SmithNYJ QB | 14.9 | 11.0 | -3.9 | 10.0 | 1.2% |
| Isaiah BondCLE WR | 0.8 | 10.4 | +9.6 | 8.9 | 0.1% |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE RB | 13.9 | 8.0 | -5.9 | 6.5 | 6.9% |
| Mason TaylorNYJ TE | 4.8 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 3.9 | 0.2% |
| Jerry JeudyCLE WR | 3.8 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 3.4 | 0.0% |
| Tim PatrickNYJ WR | 0.8 | 4.6 | +3.8 | 3.6 | 0.0% |
DTexans 26, Titans 3MAE 4.12 · corr +0.545 · 22 players
Projected 23.1 to 15.9 for a total of 38.9, against a market total of 37.5. Actual total 29.
4.12Mean abs error
+0.69Bias
+0.545Correlation
+7.3 percentvs baseline
22Players graded
| Player | Proj DK | Actual DK | Diff | Actual FD | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. StroudHOU QB | 17.4 | 20.9 | +3.5 | 20.9 | 0.4% |
| Jaylin NoelHOU WR | 5.5 | 15.2 | +9.7 | 12.7 | 0.2% |
| Woody MarksHOU RB | 8.8 | 12.5 | +3.7 | 10.5 | 0.0% |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN WR | 9.0 | 11.3 | +2.3 | 8.3 | 0.5% |
| Tyjae SpearsTEN RB | 6.3 | 10.8 | +4.5 | 5.3 | 0.0% |
| Nico CollinsHOU WR | 17.5 | 10.6 | -6.9 | 8.1 | 7.3% |
| Xavier HutchinsonHOU WR | 4.3 | 10.5 | +6.2 | 8.5 | 0.0% |
| Kayshon BoutteHOU WR | 6.5 | 6.8 | +0.3 | 5.3 | 0.0% |
| Dalton SchultzHOU TE | 9.7 | 6.0 | -3.7 | 4.5 | 0.2% |
| Cam WardTEN QB | 12.3 | 6.0 | -6.3 | 6.0 | 0.1% |
How to read the board
Games are grouped by day in kickoff order. The favorite on each card is picked out in gold, and the chip in the top right tags the game shape: a grind at 42 points or under, a shootout at 49 or over, average in between. Those are the same bands the FTA showdown research uses, so the language carries across the site.
Win probability is de-vigged from the two moneylines, so the pair adds to 100 rather than the 104 or so the raw prices imply. The second tab ranks all 32 implied team totals on the slate, which is the fastest way to find the offences the market likes before you start building.
What this pairs with
Once you have the spots, the NFL Strength of Schedule tool grades the matchups, the NFL Bacon Station carries defense-allowed and red zone usage, and the BaconLab optimizer builds the lineups. FTA+ members can export the whole board to CSV and drop it straight into their own model.