NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Weekly Win Probability, Pick Popularity and Burn Cost

Survivor pools are not won by picking the biggest favourite every week. You get one use of each team all season, so the real question is whether this week is that team’s best spot or whether a better one is coming later.

This board carries four numbers for every team in every week: the probability they win, an estimate of how much of a typical pool is taking them, the best win probability they have in any later week, and the burn cost, which is the difference between the two. A positive burn cost means you are spending that team cheaply by using them now.

Mark off the teams you have already used and they disappear from every week, so what you are looking at is your actual remaining board rather than everyone’s.

Weeks the market has not priced yet are projected from team ratings fitted to the games that are priced, and each week is labelled so you always know which you are looking at.

Updated Nov 10, 10:03 AM CST
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