Every projectable NFL player, graded across twelve markets, with fair odds you can hold a book’s line up against. Pick a position, pick a market, and type the number your book is offering to see the probability the projection implies.

How the projections are built

Each player’s per-game rate is taken from the prior season, then pulled toward the average for their position. That step matters more than it sounds. A linebacker who posted eleven tackles a game across thirteen appearances is not an eleven-tackle linebacker, he is a very good one who also got a favorable run of opponents, and publishing the raw rate would tell you he is close to a lock at a line no book would ever hang. Regressing the number gives you something you can actually bet into.

The projection is then adjusted for the Week 1 opponent, capped so no single matchup swings a player more than fourteen percent. The adjustment runs both directions: for a receiver it reflects how much a defense gave up through the air, and for a defender it reflects how many tackles the opposing offense handed to the players lined up against them.

Reading the fair odds

Fair odds are the no-vig price implied by our projection. If the model says a player clears his line 55 percent of the time, fair is roughly minus 122. Anything a book pays longer than that is the side with value, and anything shorter is the book taking the better of it. Nothing on this board is a book line, so treat it as the number to shop against rather than a number to bet blind.

Different markets use different math, because they should. Anytime touchdown is a yes or no outcome and publishes a probability directly. Receptions and tackles are counting stats that vary more game to game than a simple average allows for, so their spread is measured from real game logs. Yardage markets use the player’s own volatility rather than a league default.

Preseason mode

Until real games are played, the board is seeded from last season and says so at the top. FTA+ members can open the weight controls and retune it, dialing the regression down if they trust a player’s recent form or turning the matchup adjustment up if they think the schedule is doing more work than we credit. Both sliders move the model itself, not the display, and members can export any market to CSV.