Every game on the board ranked by projected total, so stacking priorities read from the top down. Each card carries the model total against the posted market total, the implied points for each side, win probability and the spread, then the top projected players on both offenses.
Salaries and projections read DraftKings first and FanDuel second, stacked around a slash. An n/a means that player is not on the other site’s main board.
Implied points per side matter more than the game total for lineup building, because you are rostering one team. A game total of fifty splits very differently at a pick em spread than it does at a touchdown.
NFL Game By Game Breakdown: Week 5
All 10 games on the Week 5 board, sorted by projected total so stacking priorities read from the top down. The highest projected environment is Lions at Cardinals at 54.9 points. Depth charts and snap shares are projected rather than confirmed, so treat the player lists as the model's expectation and check inactives before lock. Salaries and projections read DraftKings first and FanDuel second, and an n/a means the player is not on that site's main board.
October 7, 2026 · 10 games
Every Game, Ranked by Projected Total
#1Lions at Cardinals
Sun 4:25 PM ET · Indoors
54.9Model Total
30.2 - 24.7Proj Score
63 / 37Win %
Lions by 4.5Spread
54.5Market Total
+0.4Model vs Market
Lions offense
vs Cardinals defense, allowing 24.7 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Jahmyr Gibbs | $9,800 / $10,000 | 29.2 / 26.9 | 37% / 54% |
| QB Jared Goff | $6,600 / $8,100 | 21.4 / 21.4 | 17% / 19% |
| WR Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,900 / $9,000 | 20.1 / 16.6 | 25% / 23% |
| TE Sam LaPorta | $4,900 / $6,000 | 14.1 / 11.5 | 22% / 17% |
| WR Jameson Williams | $5,900 / $6,500 | 11.5 / 9.8 | 3% / 12% |
| WR Isaac TeSlaa | $3,400 / $5,400 | 6.8 / 5.7 | 8% / 4% |
| RB Sione Vaki | $4,300 / $5,100 | 3.2 / 2.8 | 0% / 0% |
Cardinals offense
vs Lions defense, allowing 30.2 projected pointssoft
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE Trey McBride | $6,700 / $7,200 | 21.0 / 16.8 | 40% / 39% |
| QB Jacoby Brissett | $5,500 / $6,800 | 19.6 / 19.6 | 20% / 26% |
| WR Michael Wilson | $6,200 / $6,400 | 15.9 / 13.0 | 28% / 47% |
| RB Jeremiyah Love Q | $6,100 / $6,600 | 13.8 / 12.5 | 5% / 8% |
| WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | $4,400 / $5,600 | 8.8 / 7.3 | 4% / 6% |
| RB Tyler Allgeier | $5,100 / $5,600 | 8.3 / 7.4 | 0% / 1% |
| WR Kendrick Bourne | $3,400 / $4,900 | 6.2 / 5.0 | 4% / 3% |
#249ers at Seahawks
Sun 4:25 PM ET · Outdoors
46.8Model Total
22.1 - 24.7Proj Score
41 / 59Win %
Seahawks by 3Spread
47.5Market Total
-0.7Model vs Market
49ers offense
vs Seahawks defense, allowing 24.7 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Christian McCaffrey | $8,200 / $8,400 | 19.9 / 17.4 | 10% / 12% |
| QB Brock Purdy | $6,500 / $8,300 | 18.0 / 18.0 | 1% / 2% |
| TE George Kittle | $5,200 / $6,700 | 14.2 / 11.6 | 16% / 5% |
| WR Mike Evans | $6,500 / $7,100 | 12.5 / 10.3 | 1% / 4% |
| WR Deebo Samuel Sr. | $5,500 / $6,900 | 9.8 / 8.0 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Kaelon Black | $4,700 / $5,000 | 4.0 / 3.6 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Brandin Cooks | $3,500 / $4,900 | 2.0 / 1.6 | 0% / 0% |
Seahawks offense
vs 49ers defense, allowing 22.1 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba | $8,800 / $9,300 | 21.4 / 17.9 | 15% / 23% |
| QB Sam Darnold | $5,800 / $7,200 | 17.4 / 17.4 | 4% / 7% |
| RB Emanuel Wilson | $5,300 / $6,000 | 14.1 / 13.1 | 13% / 16% |
| TE AJ Barner | $3,200 / $4,800 | 7.8 / 6.3 | 4% / 1% |
| RB George Holani | $4,500 / $4,900 | 7.7 / 6.8 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Cooper Kupp | $3,800 / $5,300 | 7.0 / 5.8 | 1% / 0% |
| WR Rashid Shaheed | $4,000 / $5,000 | 6.6 / 5.6 | 0% / 0% |
#3Bears at Packers
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
46.3Model Total
24.3 - 22.0Proj Score
59 / 41Win %
Bears by 3Spread
45.5Market Total
+0.8Model vs Market
Bears offense
vs Packers defense, allowing 22.0 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Tyson Bagent | $4,700 / $6,700 | 15.8 / 15.8 | 8% / 5% |
| RB D'Andre Swift | $6,200 / $6,500 | 15.3 / 14.2 | 11% / 19% |
| WR Luther Burden III | $4,900 / $5,900 | 12.7 / 10.3 | 22% / 14% |
| TE Colston Loveland | $4,600 / $5,700 | 10.5 / 8.4 | 2% / 1% |
| RB Kyle Monangai Q | $5,200 / $6,400 | 9.8 / 9.3 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Rome Odunze | $4,700 / $6,200 | 9.3 / 7.7 | 2% / 0% |
| WR Kalif Raymond | $3,900 / $5,100 | 8.0 / 6.3 | 3% / 1% |
Packers offense
vs Bears defense, allowing 24.3 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Jordan Love | $5,700 / $7,400 | 16.7 / 16.7 | 3% / 4% |
| WR Matthew Golden | $5,700 / $6,300 | 13.5 / 11.2 | 12% / 16% |
| WR Christian Watson | $6,400 / $7,000 | 13.3 / 11.1 | 4% / 5% |
| TE Tucker Kraft | $4,700 / $5,600 | 12.5 / 10.1 | 10% / 8% |
| RB MarShawn Lloyd | $4,800 / $5,500 | 7.6 / 6.8 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Kaleb Johnson | $4,600 / $5,500 | 6.8 / 6.5 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Skyy Moore | $3,200 / $4,900 | 3.9 / 3.2 | 0% / 0% |
#4Raiders at Patriots
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
45.8Model Total
20.7 - 25.1Proj Score
40 / 60Win %
Patriots by 3.5Spread
45.5Market Total
+0.3Model vs Market
Raiders offense
vs Patriots defense, allowing 25.1 projected pointssoft
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE Brock Bowers | $7,000 / $7,800 | 17.9 / 14.6 | 11% / 10% |
| RB Ashton Jeanty | $7,200 / $7,800 | 17.7 / 15.7 | 12% / 10% |
| QB Kirk Cousins | $5,400 / $7,100 | 14.3 / 14.3 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Michael Mayer | $3,500 / $4,700 | 8.1 / 6.3 | 2% / 1% |
| WR Tre Tucker | $4,800 / $5,700 | 7.2 / 5.9 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Cody White | $3,300 / $5,300 | 5.3 / 4.3 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Mike Washington Jr. | $4,200 / $4,900 | 5.0 / 4.7 | 0% / 0% |
Patriots offense
vs Raiders defense, allowing 20.7 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Drake Maye | $6,300 / $7,800 | 18.1 / 18.1 | 4% / 6% |
| RB Rhamondre Stevenson Q | $5,500 / $5,900 | 14.4 / 13.0 | 14% / 16% |
| RB TreVeyon Henderson | $5,000 / $5,800 | 11.9 / 11.1 | 4% / 5% |
| WR Romeo Doubs | $5,000 / $6,000 | 11.8 / 9.8 | 10% / 8% |
| TE Hunter Henry | $3,700 / $5,100 | 9.0 / 7.4 | 3% / 1% |
| WR DeMario Douglas | $3,500 / $5,000 | 7.5 / 6.1 | 4% / 2% |
| WR Efton Chism III | $3,200 / $4,700 | 6.8 / 5.5 | 4% / 1% |
#5Colts at Steelers
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
45.1Model Total
21.8 - 23.3Proj Score
43 / 57Win %
Steelers by 2.5Spread
44.5Market Total
+0.6Model vs Market
Colts offense
vs Steelers defense, allowing 23.3 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Jonathan Taylor | $7,800 / $8,600 | 20.3 / 18.9 | 20% / 28% |
| QB Daniel Jones | $5,000 / $6,900 | 15.3 / 15.3 | 4% / 4% |
| WR Josh Downs | $6,000 / $6,100 | 14.0 / 11.2 | 9% / 18% |
| TE Tyler Warren | $5,000 / $5,500 | 13.3 / 10.4 | 10% / 10% |
| WR Keenan Allen Q | $4,300 / $5,800 | 8.6 / 6.8 | 2% / 0% |
| WR Laquon Treadwell | $3,600 / $4,900 | 4.4 / 3.5 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Ashton Dulin | $3,000 / $4,800 | 2.7 / 2.2 | 0% / 0% |
Steelers offense
vs Colts defense, allowing 21.8 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Aaron Rodgers | $5,300 / $7,000 | 16.1 / 16.1 | 4% / 2% |
| RB Jaylen Warren | $6,700 / $6,700 | 13.3 / 12.2 | 1% / 3% |
| WR DK Metcalf | $5,400 / $6,800 | 12.2 / 10.2 | 7% / 3% |
| RB Rico Dowdle Q | $4,700 / $5,400 | 9.1 / 8.4 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Pat Freiermuth | $3,900 / $5,000 | 8.7 / 7.0 | 1% / 1% |
| WR Roman Wilson | $3,700 / $5,600 | 8.4 / 6.8 | 8% / 0% |
| WR Michael Pittman Jr. | $4,400 / $5,600 | 6.8 / 5.4 | 0% / 0% |
#6Bengals at Dolphins
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
43.2Model Total
25.7 - 17.5Proj Score
70 / 30Win %
Bengals by 7Spread
42.5Market Total
+0.7Model vs Market
Bengals offense
vs Dolphins defense, allowing 17.5 projected pointstough
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Chase Brown | $6,900 / $8,000 | 21.8 / 19.7 | 39% / 36% |
| QB Joe Burrow | $6,900 / $8,700 | 18.0 / 18.0 | 3% / 3% |
| WR Tee Higgins Q | $7,100 / $7,500 | 16.2 / 13.5 | 7% / 18% |
| TE Mike Gesicki | $4,100 / $5,200 | 8.4 / 6.8 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Dohnte Meyers | $3,500 / $5,400 | 8.3 / 6.8 | 9% / 0% |
| WR Mitch Tinsley | $3,300 / $4,900 | 6.3 / 5.1 | 2% / 0% |
| RB Samaje Perine | $4,400 / $5,200 | 5.9 / 5.1 | 0% / 0% |
Dolphins offense
vs Bengals defense, allowing 25.7 projected pointssoft
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Malik Willis | $4,600 / $6,600 | 13.9 / 13.9 | 2% / 1% |
| WR Malik Washington | $4,600 / $5,700 | 11.3 / 9.2 | 15% / 8% |
| RB Ollie Gordon II | $5,300 / $6,100 | 10.8 / 10.0 | 0% / 1% |
| WR Caleb Douglas Q | $3,900 / $5,300 | 7.6 / 6.3 | 1% / 1% |
| RB Jaylen Wright | $4,800 / $5,600 | 6.6 / 6.0 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Greg Dulcich | $3,100 / $4,800 | 5.9 / 4.7 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Chris Bell | $3,600 / $5,100 | 3.9 / 3.2 | 0% / 0% |
#7Broncos at Chargers
Sun 4:05 PM ET · Outdoors
43.1Model Total
23.2 - 20.0Proj Score
60 / 40Win %
Broncos by 3.5Spread
42.5Market Total
+0.6Model vs Market
Broncos offense
vs Chargers defense, allowing 20.0 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Bo Nix | $5,600 / $7,600 | 17.8 / 17.8 | 6% / 4% |
| WR Jaylen Waddle | $6,100 / $6,600 | 12.9 / 10.6 | 3% / 6% |
| RB RJ Harvey | $5,200 / $6,000 | 12.3 / 10.2 | 7% / 1% |
| RB J.K. Dobbins | $5,000 / $5,900 | 9.9 / 9.5 | 1% / 1% |
| WR Courtland Sutton | $4,600 / $5,900 | 9.8 / 8.1 | 4% / 2% |
| TE Evan Engram | $2,800 / $4,900 | 5.6 / 4.4 | 1% / 0% |
| WR Troy Franklin | $3,200 / $4,300 | 4.8 / 4.0 | 0% / 0% |
Chargers offense
vs Broncos defense, allowing 23.2 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Justin Herbert | $5,100 / $7,100 | 15.7 / 15.7 | 3% / 1% |
| TE Oronde Gadsden II | $3,600 / $5,000 | 9.9 / 7.9 | 8% / 4% |
| WR Tre' Harris | $4,100 / $5,500 | 9.4 / 7.6 | 8% / 2% |
| RB Keaton Mitchell | $4,500 / $5,300 | 9.0 / 8.0 | 1% / 0% |
| WR Quentin Johnston | $5,100 / $5,300 | 8.8 / 7.3 | 0% / 2% |
| RB Omarion Hampton | $6,000 / $7,100 | 8.2 / 7.7 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Kimani Vidal | $4,300 / $4,400 | 4.6 / 4.1 | 0% / 0% |
#8Vikings at Saints
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Indoors
42.9Model Total
22.1 - 20.8Proj Score
54 / 46Win %
Vikings by 1.5Spread
42.5Market Total
+0.4Model vs Market
Vikings offense
vs Saints defense, allowing 20.8 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Aaron Jones Sr. | $6,500 / $6,200 | 18.2 / 16.7 | 27% / 39% |
| QB Kyler Murray | $5,200 / $7,000 | 15.7 / 15.7 | 3% / 2% |
| TE T.J. Hockenson | $4,800 / $5,200 | 14.3 / 11.2 | 23% / 22% |
| WR Jordan Addison | $5,800 / $6,700 | 14.0 / 11.5 | 15% / 8% |
| WR Jauan Jennings | $4,100 / $5,300 | 6.6 / 5.2 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Tai Felton | $3,000 / $4,300 | 3.9 / 3.1 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Demond Claiborne | $4,000 / $5,000 | 2.2 / 2.1 | 0% / 0% |
Saints offense
vs Vikings defense, allowing 22.1 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Chris Olave | $7,700 / $8,300 | 16.3 / 13.3 | 2% / 4% |
| QB Tyler Shough | $6,100 / $7,700 | 16.1 / 16.1 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Alvin Kamara | $5,400 / $6,300 | 11.7 / 10.2 | 2% / 0% |
| WR Devaughn Vele | $5,200 / $6,000 | 9.8 / 7.9 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Juwan Johnson | $4,500 / $5,400 | 8.5 / 6.8 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Kendre Miller | $4,900 / $5,700 | 6.0 / 5.5 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Noah Fant Q | $3,000 / $4,900 | 3.6 / 2.8 | 0% / 0% |
#9Browns at Jets
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
41.0Model Total
19.9 - 21.1Proj Score
43 / 57Win %
Jets by 2.5Spread
39.5Market Total
+1.5Model vs Market
Browns offense
vs Jets defense, allowing 21.1 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Deshaun Watson | $5,100 / $6,900 | 17.0 / 17.0 | 9% / 6% |
| RB Quinshon Judkins | $5,700 / $6,100 | 14.5 / 13.2 | 12% / 12% |
| WR Denzel Boston | $5,200 / $5,800 | 11.0 / 9.2 | 2% / 8% |
| WR KC Concepcion Jr. | $4,200 / $5,600 | 10.8 / 8.7 | 20% / 7% |
| TE Harold Fannin Jr. | $4,400 / $5,400 | 10.5 / 8.3 | 3% / 2% |
| RB Raheim Sanders | $4,700 / $4,700 | 5.1 / 4.1 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Jerry Jeudy | $3,700 / $5,100 | 3.5 / 2.8 | 0% / 0% |
Jets offense
vs Browns defense, allowing 19.9 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Garrett Wilson | $6,600 / $7,400 | 16.8 / 13.6 | 20% / 19% |
| RB Braelon Allen | $5,400 / $5,900 | 15.8 / 14.7 | 28% / 30% |
| QB Geno Smith | $5,000 / $6,700 | 15.2 / 15.2 | 4% / 4% |
| TE Kenyon Sadiq | $3,800 / $5,100 | 8.4 / 6.8 | 1% / 0% |
| WR Adonai Mitchell | $4,500 / $5,500 | 7.0 / 5.7 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Isaiah Williams | $3,700 / $5,400 | 4.9 / 3.9 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Isaiah Davis | $4,200 / $4,900 | 4.6 / 4.1 | 0% / 0% |
#10Texans at Titans
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
38.8Model Total
23.5 - 15.4Proj Score
68 / 32Win %
Texans by 6.5Spread
39.5Market Total
-0.7Model vs Market
Texans offense
vs Titans defense, allowing 15.4 projected pointstough
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Nico Collins | $7,500 / $7,800 | 19.3 / 16.3 | 24% / 34% |
| QB C.J. Stroud | $5,900 / $7,300 | 16.4 / 16.4 | 2% / 3% |
| RB David Montgomery | $5,800 / $6,800 | 12.6 / 11.9 | 2% / 3% |
| TE Dalton Schultz | $4,000 / $5,300 | 7.8 / 6.2 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Woody Marks | $4,800 / $5,800 | 7.7 / 7.1 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Kayshon Boutte | $3,900 / $5,100 | 5.5 / 4.6 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Jaylin Noel | $3,200 / $5,400 | 5.5 / 4.5 | 0% / 0% |
Titans offense
vs Texans defense, allowing 23.5 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Carnell Tate | $5,300 / $5,900 | 12.8 / 10.2 | 13% / 12% |
| QB Cam Ward | $4,900 / $6,500 | 12.0 / 12.0 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Tony Pollard | $5,600 / $5,800 | 10.1 / 9.3 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Wan'Dale Robinson | $4,500 / $5,200 | 9.4 / 7.2 | 1% / 3% |
| RB Tyjae Spears | $4,600 / $4,800 | 6.3 / 5.2 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Gunnar Helm | $2,800 / $4,600 | 5.4 / 4.1 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Elic Ayomanor | $3,000 / $4,800 | 4.1 / 3.3 | 0% / 0% |
How to read this page. Model Total is the FTA projection for the game, and the cell beside it is that figure against the posted market total. Proj Score splits it into implied points per side, which is the number that should drive which team you stack rather than the game total. The defence line on each pane is how many points that side is projected to allow, so a soft badge is an offence facing a generous defence. Ownership is projected, not final, and depth charts are the model's expectation rather than confirmed usage.