Every game on the board ranked by projected total, so stacking priorities read from the top down. Each card carries the model total against the posted market total, the implied points for each side, win probability and the spread, then the top projected players on both offenses.
Salaries and projections read DraftKings first and FanDuel second, stacked around a slash. An n/a means that player is not on the other site’s main board.
Implied points per side matter more than the game total for lineup building, because you are rostering one team. A game total of fifty splits very differently at a pick em spread than it does at a touchdown.
NFL Game By Game Breakdown: Week 4
All 11 games on the Week 4 board, sorted by projected total so stacking priorities read from the top down. The highest projected environment is Titans at Ravens at 53.0 points. Depth charts and snap shares are projected rather than confirmed, so treat the player lists as the model's expectation and check inactives before lock. Salaries and projections read DraftKings first and FanDuel second, and an n/a means the player is not on that site's main board.
September 30, 2026 · 11 games
Every Game, Ranked by Projected Total
#1Titans at Ravens
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
53.0Model Total
18.5 - 28.4Proj Score
20 / 80Win %
Ravens by 11.5Spread
42.5Market Total
+10.5Model vs Market
Titans offense
vs Ravens defense, allowing 28.4 projected pointssoft
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Cam Ward | $5,100 / $6,600 | 13.2 / 13.2 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Tony Pollard Q | $5,400 / $5,700 | 10.2 / 9.4 | 0% / 1% |
| RB Tyjae Spears Q | $4,900 / $4,900 | 9.4 / 7.9 | 0% / 2% |
| WR Carnell Tate | $5,000 / $5,500 | 8.9 / 7.2 | 0% / 1% |
| WR Wan'Dale Robinson | $4,500 / $5,100 | 8.4 / 6.5 | 0% / 1% |
| TE Gunnar Helm | $2,900 / $4,700 | 6.1 / 4.7 | 1% / 0% |
| WR Elic Ayomanor | $3,300 / $4,900 | 4.3 / 3.5 | 0% / 0% |
Ravens offense
vs Titans defense, allowing 18.5 projected pointstough
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Lamar Jackson | $7,500 / $8,600 | 22.7 / 22.7 | 7% / 14% |
| RB Derrick Henry | $7,700 / $9,000 | 19.2 / 18.6 | 13% / 14% |
| WR Zay Flowers Q | $6,900 / $7,500 | 16.2 / 13.6 | 12% / 20% |
| TE Mark Andrews | $4,400 / $5,300 | 11.7 / 9.6 | 13% / 17% |
| WR Rashod Bateman | $4,700 / $5,600 | 10.0 / 8.4 | 7% / 9% |
| RB Justice Hill | $4,200 / $4,600 | 6.2 / 5.3 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Devontez Walker | $3,500 / $4,800 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 0% / 0% |
#2Cowboys at Texans
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Indoors
53.0Model Total
24.6 - 22.4Proj Score
41 / 59Win %
Texans by 3Spread
48.5Market Total
+4.5Model vs Market
Cowboys offense
vs Texans defense, allowing 22.4 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Dak Prescott | $6,700 / $8,300 | 20.2 / 20.2 | 5% / 6% |
| WR CeeDee Lamb | $7,800 / $8,600 | 19.4 / 16.1 | 19% / 18% |
| RB Javonte Williams | $6,700 / $7,300 | 15.4 / 14.0 | 4% / 7% |
| WR George Pickens | $6,600 / $7,700 | 14.5 / 11.9 | 6% / 3% |
| TE Jake Ferguson | $4,100 / $5,400 | 8.8 / 6.9 | 1% / 0% |
| WR Ryan Flournoy | $3,800 / $5,100 | 8.2 / 6.5 | 6% / 4% |
| RB Emari Demercado | $4,200 / $4,800 | 3.3 / 3.1 | 0% / 0% |
Texans offense
vs Cowboys defense, allowing 24.6 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB C.J. Stroud | $5,500 / $7,000 | 16.8 / 16.8 | 2% / 2% |
| TE Dalton Schultz | $4,200 / $5,800 | 13.0 / 10.4 | 26% / 14% |
| RB David Montgomery | $6,000 / $6,600 | 11.1 / 10.3 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Xavier Hutchinson | $4,000 / $5,800 | 9.5 / 7.8 | 8% / 1% |
| WR Kayshon Boutte | $4,500 / $5,500 | 8.6 / 7.2 | 1% / 1% |
| RB Woody Marks | $5,000 / $5,700 | 7.6 / 6.9 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Jaylin Noel | $3,600 / $5,500 | 6.8 / 5.6 | 0% / 0% |
#3Patriots at Bills
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
50.5Model Total
21.5 - 29.4Proj Score
32 / 68Win %
Bills by 6.5Spread
48.5Market Total
+2.0Model vs Market
Patriots offense
vs Bills defense, allowing 29.4 projected pointssoft
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Drake Maye | $6,100 / $7,400 | 18.2 / 18.2 | 2% / 3% |
| RB Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,400 / $5,900 | 10.6 / 9.4 | 0% / 1% |
| TE Hunter Henry | $3,900 / $5,100 | 10.4 / 8.4 | 9% / 8% |
| RB TreVeyon Henderson | $5,200 / $6,500 | 9.7 / 8.8 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Romeo Doubs | $5,100 / $5,800 | 9.4 / 7.7 | 0% / 1% |
| WR Mack Hollins | $4,200 / $5,500 | 8.1 / 6.5 | 1% / 0% |
| WR DeMario Douglas | $3,700 / $5,000 | 7.7 / 6.2 | 3% / 2% |
Bills offense
vs Patriots defense, allowing 21.5 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Josh Allen | $8,000 / $9,100 | 25.9 / 25.9 | 12% / 19% |
| RB James Cook III | $6,900 / $8,100 | 16.9 / 16.0 | 9% / 8% |
| TE Dalton Kincaid | $5,500 / $5,700 | 12.9 / 10.7 | 4% / 21% |
| WR DJ Moore Q | $5,800 / $6,700 | 11.8 / 9.9 | 3% / 7% |
| WR Khalil Shakir | $4,800 / $5,900 | 10.9 / 8.9 | 11% / 9% |
| WR Keon Coleman Q | $4,300 / $5,400 | 4.8 / 4.0 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Joshua Palmer | $3,500 / $4,900 | 4.6 / 3.9 | 1% / 1% |
#4Lions at Panthers
Sun 8:20 PM ET · Outdoors
48.6Model Total
27.9 - 22.5Proj Score
60 / 40Win %
Lions by 3.5Spread
51.5Market Total
-2.9Model vs Market
Lions offense
vs Panthers defense, allowing 22.5 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Jahmyr Gibbs | $8,800 / $9,200 | 24.9 / 22.7 | 28% / 42% |
| WR Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,900 / $9,000 | 19.9 / 16.4 | 22% / 16% |
| QB Jared Goff | $6,300 / $7,900 | 19.4 / 19.4 | 9% / 8% |
| WR Jameson Williams | $5,400 / $6,600 | 12.7 / 10.7 | 10% / 11% |
| TE Sam LaPorta | $4,300 / $6,200 | 11.9 / 9.6 | 14% / 3% |
| WR Isaac TeSlaa | $3,400 / $4,900 | 4.4 / 3.7 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Sione Vaki | $4,300 / $4,500 | 4.1 / 3.7 | 0% / 0% |
Panthers offense
vs Lions defense, allowing 27.9 projected pointssoft
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Bryce Young | $5,600 / $7,600 | 17.9 / 17.9 | 8% / 4% |
| RB Chuba Hubbard | $6,100 / $6,700 | 15.6 / 14.4 | 15% / 19% |
| WR Jalen Coker Q | $5,500 / $6,200 | 14.2 / 11.6 | 21% / 30% |
| WR Tetairoa McMillan | $6,000 / $6,800 | 14.0 / 11.6 | 12% / 10% |
| TE Darren Waller | $3,400 / $5,200 | 6.5 / 5.3 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Tommy Tremble | $2,500 / $4,500 | 4.3 / 3.4 | 1% / 0% |
| RB AJ Dillon | $4,000 / $4,500 | 4.2 / 3.9 | 0% / 0% |
#5Cardinals at Giants
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
48.5Model Total
19.3 - 20.8Proj Score
57 / 43Win %
Cardinals by 2.5Spread
44.5Market Total
+4.0Model vs Market
Cardinals offense
vs Giants defense, allowing 20.8 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE Trey McBride | $6,700 / $7,300 | 16.5 / 12.9 | 9% / 7% |
| QB Jacoby Brissett | $4,800 / $6,800 | 14.8 / 14.8 | 1% / 0% |
| RB Jeremiyah Love | $5,500 / $5,800 | 12.4 / 10.9 | 3% / 6% |
| WR Michael Wilson | $5,200 / $5,800 | 10.2 / 8.2 | 1% / 2% |
| RB Tyler Allgeier | $5,000 / $5,600 | 8.9 / 8.0 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | $4,700 / $5,600 | 6.9 / 5.7 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Kendrick Bourne | $3,700 / $5,000 | 6.4 / 5.0 | 1% / 0% |
Giants offense
vs Cardinals defense, allowing 19.3 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Jameis Winston | $4,000 / $6,400 | 13.7 / 13.7 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Cam Skattebo | $6,200 / $6,900 | 13.6 / 12.6 | 1% / 3% |
| WR Malik Nabers Q | $6,500 / $7,900 | 13.3 / 10.9 | 1% / 0% |
| TE Isaiah Likely | $4,700 / $5,600 | 10.3 / 8.3 | 0% / 1% |
| WR Malachi Fields | $4,400 / $5,400 | 6.3 / 5.2 | 0% / 1% |
| WR Darnell Mooney | $4,100 / $5,300 | 4.6 / 3.8 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Devin Singletary | $4,200 / $5,600 | 4.3 / 3.7 | 0% / 0% |
#6Chiefs at Raiders
Sun 4:25 PM ET · Indoors
46.3Model Total
29.2 - 20.6Proj Score
63 / 37Win %
Chiefs by 4.5Spread
47.5Market Total
-1.2Model vs Market
Chiefs offense
vs Raiders defense, allowing 20.6 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Kenneth Walker III | $7,400 / $8,300 | 22.2 / 20.6 | 34% / 40% |
| QB Patrick Mahomes | $6,200 / $8,100 | 20.8 / 20.8 | 10% / 8% |
| TE Travis Kelce | $4,500 / $5,500 | 13.1 / 10.7 | 23% / 23% |
| WR Rashee Rice | $6,400 / $7,600 | 12.8 / 10.7 | 2% / 1% |
| WR Xavier Worthy | $4,400 / $6,000 | 10.0 / 8.2 | 10% / 2% |
| RB Emmett Johnson | $4,400 / $5,400 | 7.4 / 6.6 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Tyquan Thornton | $3,300 / $5,200 | 5.2 / 4.5 | 1% / 0% |
Raiders offense
vs Chiefs defense, allowing 29.2 projected pointssoft
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Ashton Jeanty | $7,100 / $7,700 | 17.7 / 15.8 | 12% / 12% |
| QB Kirk Cousins | $4,800 / $6,800 | 13.7 / 13.7 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Brock Bowers Q | $6,600 / $6,500 | 12.1 / 9.7 | 0% / 1% |
| WR Tre Tucker | $5,000 / $5,800 | 9.6 / 7.8 | 2% / 1% |
| WR Jalen Nailor | $3,700 / $5,100 | 6.2 / 5.0 | 1% / 0% |
| TE Michael Mayer | $3,300 / $5,000 | 5.9 / 4.8 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Jack Bech | $3,500 / $5,000 | 4.5 / 3.6 | 1% / 0% |
#7Jaguars at Bengals
Sun 1:00 PM ET · Outdoors
45.6Model Total
24.1 - 23.4Proj Score
43 / 57Win %
Bengals by 2.5Spread
51.5Market Total
-5.9Model vs Market
Jaguars offense
vs Bengals defense, allowing 23.4 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Trevor Lawrence | $5,700 / $7,700 | 18.6 / 18.6 | 7% / 3% |
| WR Parker Washington | $6,000 / $7,100 | 14.8 / 12.4 | 16% / 13% |
| RB Bhayshul Tuten | $5,600 / $6,400 | 11.6 / 10.8 | 1% / 1% |
| WR Jakobi Meyers Q | $4,800 / $5,200 | 9.1 / 7.4 | 1% / 5% |
| WR Brian Thomas Jr. | $4,600 / $5,700 | 9.1 / 7.6 | 1% / 1% |
| TE Brenton Strange | $3,400 / $5,000 | 8.0 / 6.5 | 4% / 1% |
| RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. | $4,600 / $5,200 | 5.6 / 5.2 | 0% / 0% |
Bengals offense
vs Jaguars defense, allowing 24.1 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Ja'Marr Chase | $8,100 / $8,900 | 18.5 / 15.1 | 8% / 7% |
| QB Joe Burrow | $6,600 / $8,000 | 17.7 / 17.7 | 2% / 1% |
| RB Chase Brown | $6,600 / $7,500 | 16.2 / 14.5 | 9% / 8% |
| WR Tee Higgins | $6,100 / $7,000 | 13.0 / 10.8 | 2% / 3% |
| TE Mike Gesicki | $3,300 / $5,000 | 6.7 / 5.3 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Samaje Perine | $4,100 / $4,800 | 6.5 / 5.7 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Drew Sample | $2,600 / $4,400 | 2.6 / 1.9 | 0% / 0% |
#8Colts at Commanders
Sun 9:30 AM ET · Outdoors
43.2Model Total
20.8 - 16.5Proj Score
60 / 40Win %
Colts by 3.5Spread
47.5Market Total
-4.3Model vs Market
Colts offense
vs Commanders defense, allowing 16.5 projected pointstough
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Jonathan Taylor | $7,600 / $8,500 | 19.8 / 18.3 | 18% / 18% |
| QB Daniel Jones | $5,000 / $7,100 | 14.9 / 14.9 | 1% / 0% |
| WR Josh Downs | $5,700 / $6,100 | 12.5 / 10.0 | 4% / 11% |
| TE Tyler Warren | $5,300 / $5,900 | 12.1 / 9.5 | 2% / 5% |
| WR Keenan Allen | $4,600 / $5,900 | 9.2 / 7.3 | 1% / 0% |
| WR Laquon Treadwell | $3,100 / $4,500 | 6.0 / 4.9 | 1% / 1% |
| TE Mo Alie-Cox | $2,500 / $4,500 | 1.5 / 1.2 | 0% / 0% |
Commanders offense
vs Colts defense, allowing 20.8 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Marcus Mariota | $4,500 / $6,700 | 13.3 / 13.3 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Stefon Diggs | $5,500 / $6,400 | 9.7 / 7.7 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Terry McLaurin | $5,100 / $5,900 | 9.6 / 7.9 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Rachaad White | $5,100 / $5,400 | 8.6 / 7.2 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt | $5,300 / $5,900 | 7.4 / 7.0 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Chig Okonkwo Q | $3,600 / $4,800 | 5.0 / 3.9 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Antonio Williams | $4,100 / $5,200 | 4.3 / 3.4 | 0% / 0% |
#9Dolphins at Vikings
Sun 4:05 PM ET · Indoors
43.0Model Total
17.1 - 22.0Proj Score
22 / 78Win %
Vikings by 10.5Spread
38.5Market Total
+4.5Model vs Market
Dolphins offense
vs Vikings defense, allowing 22.0 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB De'Von Achane | $6,500 / $7,900 | 16.2 / 14.4 | 10% / 3% |
| QB Malik Willis | $4,900 / $6,500 | 15.0 / 15.0 | 2% / 0% |
| WR Malik Washington | $4,200 / $5,500 | 9.3 / 7.5 | 6% / 2% |
| WR Caleb Douglas Q | $3,900 / $5,000 | 7.6 / 6.2 | 1% / 2% |
| TE Greg Dulcich | $3,000 / $4,600 | 5.7 / 4.5 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Chris Bell Q | $3,400 / $4,700 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Kevin Coleman Jr. | $3,000 / $4,200 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 0% / 0% |
Vikings offense
vs Dolphins defense, allowing 17.1 projected pointstough
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Kyler Murray | $5,100 / $7,000 | 17.1 / 17.1 | 2% / 3% |
| WR Justin Jefferson | $7,500 / $8,400 | 16.2 / 13.3 | 3% / 3% |
| RB Aaron Jones Sr. Q | $5,900 / $6,200 | 14.0 / 13.0 | 4% / 16% |
| WR Jordan Addison | $4,900 / $5,700 | 9.2 / 7.5 | 0% / 1% |
| TE T.J. Hockenson | $3,200 / $5,100 | 8.5 / 6.7 | 7% / 1% |
| WR Jauan Jennings | $3,600 / $5,400 | 4.5 / 3.7 | 0% / 0% |
| TE Josh Oliver | $2,500 / $4,300 | 4.2 / 3.4 | 0% / 0% |
#10Steelers at Browns
Thu 8:15 PM ET · Outdoors
43.0Model Total
19.6 - 20.1Proj Score
57 / 43Win %
Steelers by 2.5Spread
38.5Market Total
+4.5Model vs Market
Steelers offense
vs Browns defense, allowing 20.1 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Jaylen Warren Q | $5,700 / $6,300 | 18.1 / 15.9 | 37% / 37% |
| QB Aaron Rodgers | $5,000 / $6,900 | 14.0 / 14.0 | 1% / 1% |
| WR DK Metcalf | $5,400 / $6,900 | 12.3 / 10.0 | 5% / 2% |
| TE Pat Freiermuth | $3,800 / $5,100 | 9.3 / 7.3 | 3% / 2% |
| WR Germie Bernard | $3,900 / $5,300 | 7.3 / 5.8 | 0% / 0% |
| WR Roman Wilson | $3,400 / $5,100 | 7.0 / 5.5 | 2% / 0% |
| TE Darnell Washington | $2,800 / $4,600 | 4.1 / 3.2 | 0% / 0% |
Browns offense
vs Steelers defense, allowing 19.6 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Deshaun Watson | $4,700 / $6,600 | 16.3 / 16.3 | 6% / 3% |
| RB Quinshon Judkins | $5,500 / $6,100 | 13.0 / 11.8 | 5% / 7% |
| WR Denzel Boston | $4,500 / $5,600 | 10.7 / 8.9 | 13% / 9% |
| WR KC Concepcion Jr. | $4,300 / $5,400 | 9.9 / 8.1 | 9% / 10% |
| TE Harold Fannin Jr. | $4,000 / $5,300 | 9.5 / 7.6 | 3% / 1% |
| WR Jerry Jeudy | $3,800 / $5,200 | 5.0 / 4.1 | 0% / 0% |
| RB Raheim Sanders | $4,500 / $4,700 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 0% / 0% |
#11Chargers at Seahawks
Sun 4:25 PM ET · Outdoors
40.9Model Total
21.1 - 24.4Proj Score
30 / 70Win %
Seahawks by 7Spread
42.5Market Total
-1.6Model vs Market
Chargers offense
vs Seahawks defense, allowing 24.4 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Justin Herbert | $5,800 / $7,200 | 17.3 / 17.3 | 1% / 4% |
| RB Omarion Hampton | $6,800 / $7,200 | 13.8 / 12.8 | 1% / 3% |
| WR Ladd McConkey | $5,900 / $6,300 | 12.5 / 10.1 | 3% / 11% |
| TE Oronde Gadsden II | $3,500 / $5,000 | 9.2 / 7.4 | 7% / 3% |
| WR Quentin Johnston | $4,900 / $5,600 | 9.0 / 7.4 | 1% / 3% |
| WR Tre' Harris | $3,900 / $4,900 | 7.5 / 6.0 | 2% / 3% |
| RB Keaton Mitchell | $4,300 / $4,700 | 5.8 / 5.1 | 0% / 0% |
Seahawks offense
vs Chargers defense, allowing 21.1 projected pointsneutral
| Player | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba | $8,600 / $9,200 | 20.3 / 17.0 | 11% / 14% |
| QB Drew Lock | $5,200 / $6,900 | 16.2 / 16.2 | 2% / 2% |
| RB Jadarian Price Q | $5,300 / $6,000 | 14.5 / 13.7 | 17% / 28% |
| WR Rashid Shaheed | $4,200 / $5,300 | 7.4 / 6.2 | 0% / 0% |
| TE AJ Barner | $3,100 / $4,800 | 7.2 / 5.8 | 2% / 0% |
| WR Cooper Kupp Q | $4,000 / $5,200 | 6.0 / 4.9 | 0% / 0% |
| RB George Holani Q | $4,500 / $5,100 | 5.8 / 5.2 | 0% / 0% |
How to read this page. Model Total is the FTA projection for the game, and the cell beside it is that figure against the posted market total. Proj Score splits it into implied points per side, which is the number that should drive which team you stack rather than the game total. The defence line on each pane is how many points that side is projected to allow, so a soft badge is an offence facing a generous defence. Ownership is projected, not final, and depth charts are the model's expectation rather than confirmed usage.