When a starter is ruled out, his minutes and shots do not disappear. They go to somebody, and that somebody is usually underpriced for one night. The NBA Usage Bump board finds him. It compares every player’s projected minutes and fantasy points tonight against his last 10 games, flags which absences are new, and shows how each teammate actually played in the games that player missed.

How the NBA Usage Bump works

Tonight’s numbers come from the FTA projections: projected minutes plus a DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy projection for every player on the slate. The baseline is each player’s average over his last 10 games, built from the official box scores. The Min Bump and FP Bump columns are simply tonight minus the baseline, so a backup projected for 28 minutes who has been playing 16 shows a 12 minute bump. Usage rate is the share of his team’s possessions a player finishes with a shot, free throws or a turnover while he is on the floor, which is the best single read on who takes over an injured star’s touches.

Fresh and ongoing absences

Not every injury creates value. If a player has been out for two weeks, his teammates’ recent averages already reflect it, and their salaries have usually caught up. The Out Tonight panel marks each absence as Fresh when the missing player has been playing most of the recent window, which is when the bump is new and the pricing may lag, or Ongoing when the baseline has already absorbed it. Fresh absences on teams with a lot of open minutes are where to look first.

Checking a bump against real games

A projection is a forecast. FTA+ members can open any player on a team with an absence to see his real minutes, usage and fantasy points in the recent games that teammate sat, along with the number of games in the sample. When the projected bump and the actual split agree, the play is on firm ground. When they disagree, it is worth a second look before lock. Early in the season the window is short, so always read the games column before trusting a big number.

Using it in DraftKings and FanDuel lineups

Sort by Min Bump to find the cheap players absorbing the most new minutes, then check value and ownership. The best spots are often the second and third beneficiaries, since the obvious replacement starter tends to be the most popular play of the night. Pair the board with the NBA DFS Cheat Sheet and NBA DFS Projections, then build and late swap in the BaconLab Optimizer as news breaks. Not betting advice. 21 plus. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.