The Smokehouse

Every probable starter on one board, graded on who is getting smoked and who is doing the smoking. Salary and ownership for both sites, our matchup score and vulnerability rating, expected wOBA, expected isolated power and expected ERA allowed from Statcast, a Smoke score pairing each arm’s strikeout rate with the opponent’s home or road rate, plus projected strikeouts, quality start odds and the runs the offence across from him is projected to score.

Colours are percentile ranks inside today’s slate and always read from the pitcher’s point of view, so green favours the arm and red favours the offence. That means the board works both ways: sort it one way to find your cash pitcher, sort it the other to find the offence to stack.

Pair it with the Pitches Be Crazy matchup grades, the MLB Bacon Station for the hitter side, and the BaconLab Optimizer to build the lineups.

Preview three starters below for free. FTA+ members unlock the full board, every column sortable, and the CSV export.

Not betting advice. Projections and probabilities are estimates. For entertainment; 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How to read it

• Matchup is our slate normalised score. Higher favours the pitcher.
• Vuln runs 10 to 92 and goes the other way: higher means a more attackable arm.
• Smoke multiplies the pitcher’s strikeout rate by the opponent’s venue applicable strikeout rate, scaled so 25 percent against 25 percent reads 500.
• xwOBA, xISO and xERA are season to date from Statcast batted ball data and cover qualified pitchers, so a rookie or a returning arm can show blanks.
• Opp Runs is what the model projects for the offence he faces, and Under 3 is the chance that offence is held to three runs or fewer.