Player props where the FTA projection disagrees with the market, rebuilt every week. Each market is priced against a single sportsbook that quotes both sides so the vig can be removed honestly, rather than by taking the best number on each side.
The edge column is the one to read. Our projections run systematically above the book on yardage markets and slightly below it on receptions, so a raw edge list would be nothing but overs. Every number here is calculated after that bias is removed.
This week's prop edges
Out of 2,374 priced outcomes, these are the 12 where a book is paying more than our projection says the bet is worth, across 9 games. Every edge is calculated after our own model bias is removed. Updated September 12, 2026.
The rest of the card
| Player | Market | Best Price | Model | Fair | Edge | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk CousinsLV vs MIA | Passing AttemptsOver 28.5 | -122Draftkings | 67% | 52% | +14.9 | +21.4% |
| Ashton JeantyLV vs MIA | ReceptionsUnder 3.5 | -127Prophetx | 72% | 55% | +14.6 | +24.1% |
| James Cook IIIBUF vs HOU | ReceptionsUnder 2.5 | +122Prophetx | 60% | 44% | +14.1 | +29.6% |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI vs CAR | Rushing YdsOver 25.5 | -115Fanatics | 70% | 50% | +13.8 | +19.3% |
| Omarion HamptonLAC vs ARI | Receiving YdsOver 12.5 | -111Novig | 69% | 50% | +12.7 | +19.2% |
| Tre TuckerLV vs MIA | Receiving YdsUnder 48.5 | -105Prophetx | 57% | 50% | +12.5 | +22.4% |
| Kenneth WalkerKC vs DEN | ReceptionsUnder 3.5 | -166Fanduel | 72% | 58% | +11.9 | +12.4% |
| Woody MarksHOU vs BUF | Receiving YdsOver 8.5 | -119Draftkings | 69% | 51% | +11.6 | +15.9% |
| Tua TagovailoaATL vs PIT | Rushing YdsOver 1.5 | -102Fanduel | 68% | 51% | +10.9 | +22.3% |
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