Today’s best MLB home run props for June 24, 2026 are ranked the way every prop bet should be: by edge. We take BallparkPal’s projected home run probability for each hitter and compare it against the best available sportsbook odds — when the market is paying more than the true odds, that’s value. Below are our top HR bets, the safer chalk plays, and the pitchers most likely to serve one up tonight.
Last updated: 11:00 AM CT · Odds move throughout the day — always confirm the current line before betting.
Top home run value plays today
These four hitters carry the largest positive edges on the board — the spots where our model meaningfully disagrees with the market in your favor.
Corbin Carroll — ARI vs STL (+464)
The biggest edge of the day. Carroll projects at a 22.6% home run probability, but the best available price of +464 implies just 17.7% — a +4.9 edge. He draws Matthew Liberatore, one of the top-ten pitchers most likely to allow a homer tonight (0.80 projected), and Carroll’s left-handed power fits the spot. This is the headline play.
Jarren Duran — BOS at COL (+398)
Coors Field plus the slate’s single most home-run-prone starter is the dream combination. Duran projects at 24.9% to go deep against Kyle Freeland — the highest projected HR-allowed arm on the day (1.10) — while +398 implies only 20.1%. That’s a +4.8 edge in the best park in baseball. Note this is an afternoon game (3:10 PM ET).
Ceddanne Rafaela — BOS at COL (+502)
The same elite Coors/Freeland environment at a longer price. Rafaela’s 19.6% model probability against a +502 line (16.6% implied) is a +3.0 edge — a genuine plus-money ticket with real model backing, not just a dart. Pairs naturally with Duran as a Red Sox home run stack.
Andy Pages — LAD at MIN (+540)
The long-shot value of the night. Pages projects at 18.2% against Joe Ryan (0.88 projected HR allowed) in a hitter-friendly Target Field tonight, while +540 implies just 15.6% — a +2.6 edge. A small-stake, high-payout play with model support behind it.
Safer chalk plays
These hitters have the highest raw home run probability but shorter odds, so the value is thinner. They’re best used as anchors in HR parlays or correlation stacks rather than standalone bets.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU at TOR, +290) — the slate’s top HR probability (26.0%) and fairly priced at a +0.4 edge. The safest single HR bet on the board, facing Trey Yesavage (0.99 projected HR allowed).
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS at COL, +390) — a third Boston bat in the Coors/Freeland spot (21.3%, +0.9 edge). Stacking the Red Sox bats together maximizes correlation if Freeland has a rough afternoon.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI vs WAS, +200) — co-leads the slate at 26.0% probability, but at +200 the market implies 33%, so there’s no betting value. He’s a name to note, not a bet.
Pitchers most likely to allow a home run
The flip side of HR props: target the bats facing these arms. Our model’s projected home runs allowed lines up with where the value hitters are concentrated.
| Pitcher | Team | Opponent | Proj. HR allowed | Bats to target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | COL | vs BOS | 1.10 | Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Contreras |
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | vs HOU | 0.99 | Alvarez, Walker |
| Tanner Bibee | CLE | vs CHW | 0.90 | Vargas, Montgomery |
| Erick Fedde | CHW | vs CLE | 0.90 | Manzardo, Hoskins |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | vs LAD | 0.88 | Ohtani, Pages |
| Matthew Liberatore | STL | vs ARI | 0.80 | Carroll |
Today’s HR prop card at a glance
| Hitter | Matchup | Model HR% | Best odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | ARI vs STL | 22.6% | +464 | +4.9 |
| Jarren Duran | BOS at COL | 24.9% | +398 | +4.8 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS at COL | 19.6% | +502 | +3.0 |
| Andy Pages | LAD at MIN | 18.2% | +540 | +2.6 |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS at COL | 21.3% | +390 | +0.9 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU at TOR | 26.0% | +290 | +0.4 |
| Willson Contreras | BOS at COL | 21.3% | +285 | -4.7 |
A note on timing: several of the best spots — the Red Sox at Coors and the Guardians–White Sox game — are afternoon games, so their lines lock earlier than the night slate. Check lock times before you bet.
More MLB tools
- Today’s MLB DFS picks — full stacks, pitchers, and value plays
- MLB DFS cheat sheet — cash & GPP plays by position
- MLB Vegas odds — totals and implied team scores
- Ballpark factors — all 30 stadiums rated
Model home run probabilities from BallparkPal projections; odds reflect the best available number across major sportsbooks at publish time and will move — always confirm the current line. Edge figures are model estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly; must be 21+ where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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