MLB DFS Props Card
Every player prop on today’s board ranked by edge, not by hot streak. Edge is a player’s season hit rate minus the probability implied by the posted price. A prop only makes the top tier when the season number is at least three points clear of what the book is charging.
The hit rate columns are there as evidence, not as the reason a prop is on the card. A 100 percent last-ten looks great and tells you almost nothing about price. On a typical board roughly half the props with a perfect recent streak are priced above the rate the player has actually managed all season, which is why those get their own tier instead of quietly disappearing.
How to read it
- Edge is the season hit rate minus the implied probability. Green is three points or better, amber is close to fair, red means the price is asking for more than the player has delivered.
- Implied is what the posted price says the chance is, before any vig is stripped. Player props are one sided markets, so treat every edge here as a floor.
- L5, L10, L20, H2H and 2026 are hit rates over those windows. Appearances with no plate appearance are excluded, since a player who never batted could not have hit the prop.
- Last 10 is a ten game log, oldest on the left. A tall bar is a hit.
- An amber warning on a row means our own game log disagrees with the source by more than five points. We show the disagreement rather than pick a winner.
Props We Like, Close To Fair, and Fades
Props We Like clear the price by three points or more. Close To Fair sit inside three points, which makes them reasonable parlay legs but thin on their own. Priced Above Their Own Rate is the fade list, and it is usually the most useful tab on the page: these are the props a hit rate sort puts at the top, priced beyond what the player actually does.
Prices move all day. Confirm at the book before you take anything. Non-members see the first three rows of each tier; FTA+ members see the full board.
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