MLB Vegas Odds Today
Every game on the board with the FTA simulated total beside the market number, implied team runs for both sides, and the moneyline. The edge column is our model probability minus the de vigged market number.
| Game | Total | Away Runs | Home Runs | Away ML | Home ML | Park | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Dodgers at ColoradoCoors Field · 8:40 ET | 11.23no market total posted | 6.73LAD | 4.50COL | -24567.3% model vs 70.4% market-3.1 | +23532.7% model vs 29.6% market+3.1 | +38% runs+28% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| Atlanta at MinnesotaTarget Field · 7:40 ET | 10.42no market total posted | 5.49ATL | 4.93MIN | -11554.7% model vs 53.6% market+1.1 | +11645.3% model vs 46.4% market-1.1 | +2% runs+1% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| St. Louis at CincinnatiGreat American Ball Park · 1:40 ET | 10.33no market total posted | 5.20STL | 5.13CIN | -10848.2% model vs 51.1% market-2.9 | +10151.8% model vs 48.9% market+2.9 | +15% runs+30% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| St. Louis at CincinnatiGreat American Ball Park · 6:40 ET | 10.28no market total posted | 4.96STL | 5.32CIN | -11643.9% model vs 53.1% market-9.2 | +11156.1% model vs 46.9% market+9.2 | +10% runs+17% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| The Athletics at Kansas CityKauffman Stadium · 7:40 ET | 9.23no market total posted | 4.21ATH | 5.03KC | +17440.0% model vs 36.4% market+3.6 | -17560.0% model vs 63.6% market-3.6 | +1% runs+5% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| Miami at PhiladelphiaCitizens Bank Park · 6:40 ET | 9.16no market total posted | 4.03MIA | 5.13PHI | +22836.4% model vs 30.4% market+6.0 | -23063.6% model vs 69.6% market-6.0 | +7% runs+13% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| Detroit at PittsburghPNC Park · 7:05 ET | 9.16no market total posted | 4.48DET | 4.68PIT | -10643.6% model vs 50.8% market-7.2 | +10156.4% model vs 49.2% market+7.2 | +4% runs-6% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| Arizona at BostonFenway Park · 7:10 ET | 9.07no market total posted | 4.35ARI | 4.71BOS | +13144.2% model vs 42.9% market+1.3 | -13655.8% model vs 57.1% market-1.3 | +0% runs-15% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| The White Sox at The CubsWrigley Field · 8:05 ET | 8.79no market total posted | 3.98CHW | 4.82CHC | +15038.6% model vs 39.6% market-1.0 | -15661.4% model vs 60.4% market+1.0 | -4% runs+8% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| Baltimore at Tampa BayTropicana Field · 6:05 ET | 8.32no market total posted | 3.85BAL | 4.46TB | +14741.1% model vs 39.9% market+1.2 | -15758.9% model vs 60.1% market-1.2 | -6% runs-4% HR | n/ano report supplied |
| San Diego at The MetsCiti Field · 7:10 ET | 7.96no market total posted | 3.99SD | 3.98NYM | +11148.6% model vs 46.9% market+1.7 | -11651.4% model vs 53.1% market-1.7 | -12% runs-6% HR | n/ano report supplied |
Moneyline prices are the best of nine sportsbooks as of the morning and the edge is measured against the de vigged pair, so a book’s hold is not counted as our edge. No game total market was posted, so that column carries our simulation only.
How To Read This Board
Game total
The gold number is the FTA simulated total, not the market line. The edge underneath compares our chance of going over the posted number against the chance that the over price implies. Do not shortcut this by eyeballing the two totals, because the run distribution is right skewed and a game projected at exactly ten runs is under fifty percent to clear nine and a half.
Implied team runs
The two runs columns are what the simulation gives each side on its own. They are the fastest read on which offence to stack, because a team projected near five runs is carrying far more upside than the game total alone tells you.
Moneyline
Each side shows our model win percentage and the fair price that percentage implies. No book has posted this game yet, so there is nothing to compare against and we are not going to manufacture an edge out of our own number.
Why Vegas Odds Matter For DFS
A daily fantasy slate is really a set of bets on run scoring, and the betting market is the fastest public estimate of where those runs land. Team implied totals tell you which offences are being priced for a big night, and that is the single best starting point for a stack. When our simulation and the market agree on a game, the read is safe and usually expensive in ownership. When they disagree, that is where the leverage sits.
The trap is treating a high total as an automatic green light. Ownership follows totals closely, so the top game on the board is almost always the chalkiest offence on it. The board is a map of where the field will be, and reading it that way is more useful than reading it as a list of recommendations.
Totals, Park Factors And Weather
A park factor is an input, not a conclusion. A hitter friendly stadium raises the ceiling on a game but it cannot manufacture runs out of two arms who are pitching well, and a pitcher friendly park does not make a bad matchup safe. The right way to use the two columns together is to let the simulated total set the priority and let the park explain the shape, particularly on home runs, where the spread between stadiums is far wider than it is on runs.
The top run environment on the August 17, 2026 board is The Dodgers at Colorado at a projected 11.23 runs, in a park playing +38% on runs and +28% on home runs. The park factors already fold the forecast in, which is why a stadium can read very differently from one pull to the next: Wrigley moved nineteen points on runs today purely on the wind.
Finding Value Rather Than Following It
Value on this board is the gap between our number and the posted one, not the biggest total or the shortest price. A game where the simulation and the market are three points apart on the over is worth more attention than a game where they agree at a high number, because the disagreement is the only place an edge can live.
Treat every edge here as a starting point rather than a bet slip. These are morning prices, lineups have not posted, and a scratch or a late arm change can move a total by half a run. Shop the number, confirm the lineup, and let the size of the disagreement decide how much of your roster you are willing to build around it.