This week’s PGA DFS slate is the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois — the Quad Cities’ long-running stop the week before The Open Championship. This is one of the most wide-open, top-heavy-free boards of the year: there’s no Scheffler-level anchor, no clear chalk stud, and the betting market is bunched with a dozen names inside +6500. Ben Griffin enters as both the projection leader and the betting favorite at +1500, with Chris Gotterup right behind at +1600. Brian Campbell returns as the defending champion after his 2025 playoff win over Emiliano Grillo. TPC Deere Run is a birdie-soaked par 71 that rewards elite iron play and hot putters — Davis Thompson set the course record here at 28-under just two years ago. Our John Deere Classic DFS picks below cover the top plays, value golfers, GPP leverage options, and finish projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel, backed by our projection and simulation models.
Last updated: 6:00 AM CT · First-round tee times begin 6:40 AM CDT · Forecast ~91°F, 12 MPH wind
Course preview: TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run is a 7,327-yard par 71 designed by D.A. Weibring, and it plays as one of the most scoreable venues on the schedule. Fairways are gettable, the bentgrass greens are pure, and the winning score is consistently deep. This is not a ball-striker’s grind — it’s a birdie-or-better contest where the winner typically laps the field on the par 5s and short scoring holes. The scoring stat that correlates best here is birdies-or-better gained, followed by strokes-gained approach and putting.
Just how low does it go? Davis Thompson set the tournament scoring record at 28-under (256) in 2024, and recent winning scores have routinely landed in the 18-to-21-under range. That has a direct DFS implication: you want aggressive scorers with high ceilings, not conservative course-managers. The heat (forecast near 91°F) and light wind should keep the greens receptive and scoring conditions soft, especially for the morning wave.
Recent John Deere Classic champions
- 2025 — Brian Campbell (18-under) — a playoff win over Emiliano Grillo; the defending champion is back this week
- 2024 — Davis Thompson (28-under) — a record-shattering, wire-to-wire runaway; he’s back in the field this week
- 2023 — Sepp Straka (21-under) — a closing 62 to steal it
- 2022 — J.T. Poston (21-under) — a bogey-free wire-to-wire win; Poston is in the field again and a strong course-fit play
- 2021 — Lucas Glover (19-under) — also back in this week’s field
- 2019 — Dylan Frittelli (21-under)
Two takeaways for DFS. First, the winning number is always deep, which confirms this is a ceiling-over-floor week — target golfers who can post 8-and-9-birdie rounds, not plodders. Second, multiple past champions are in the field and priced as mid-tier values: J.T. Poston (2022 champ, $9,300 DK), Lucas Glover (2021 champ, $6,900 DK), and defending-era course-record holder Davis Thompson ($8,000 DK). Proven form at a venue this specific is a meaningful tiebreaker on a flat board like this one.
Vegas odds — top contenders
- Ben Griffin — +1500
- Chris Gotterup — +1600
- Jackson Koivun — +2000
- Keith Mitchell, Keegan Bradley — +2200
- J.T. Poston — +2700
- Jacob Bridgeman, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Michael Thorbjornsen — +3000
- Eric Cole — +3300
- Andrew Novak, Rickie Fowler — +3500
Top PGA DFS plays for the John Deere Classic
With no dominant stud, roster construction this week is about stacking mid-priced golfers with strong projections and ceilings rather than paying up for one anchor. Here are the golfers we’re building around.
Ben Griffin — $10,500 DK / $12,000 FD
Griffin is the projection model’s top overall play at a slate-high 85.9 projected DraftKings points, and he’s also the betting favorite at +1500 — the rare week where the model and the market fully agree on the No. 1. His profile fits Deere Run cleanly: he’s a strong, consistent scorer whose recent form and approach play travel well to soft, birdie-friendly setups. His ceiling (118.5 at the 85th percentile) tops the field. At $10,500 he’s the closest thing to a “safe” anchor on a board with none, and in cash games he’s close to mandatory. In GPPs his ~28% projected ownership is high, so leverage-seekers will want to be overweight elsewhere.
Chris Gotterup — $10,700 DK / $11,900 FD
Gotterup is the second-highest projection (83.2) and second on the board at +1600. He’s one of the biggest ceiling plays in the field — a bomber whose length is a genuine weapon on the reachable par 5s here, and his 85th-percentile ceiling (117.0) is essentially tied with Griffin’s. At the top salary he eats into your budget, but the upside justifies it in tournaments. His projected ownership (~20%) is notably lower than Griffin’s, making him the better leverage option of the two co-favorites.
Jackson Koivun — $9,400 DK / $11,200 FD
Koivun is the model’s value-adjusted gem among the studs: 81.0 projected points at an 8.62 value — the best points-per-dollar figure of anyone priced above $9K — and third on the odds board at +2000. The former top amateur has elite ball-striking and a high ceiling (114.0, 85th percentile), and at $9,400 he saves you $1,100–$1,300 versus the two co-favorites while projecting within a few points of them. That salary relief is exactly what makes a Griffin-or-Gotterup + Koivun core affordable. His ownership (~34%) will be heavy, but the price-to-projection edge is real.
Value plays and salary savers
Anchoring with two of the priced-up names means you’ll need cheap golfers who can still make the cut and post a birdie-heavy weekend. These sub-$7,100 options posted the best projected value in the field.
- Lee Hodges ($7,000 DK / $8,100 FD) — 61.1 projected at an 8.73 value; a birdie-maker who fits the scoreable setup
- Zac Blair ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) — 61.1 projected at an 8.73 value; an accurate short-course specialist
- Lucas Glover ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD) — 59.7 projected at an 8.65 value; the 2021 Deere champion, pure course-history salary relief
- Chan Kim ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) — 60.3 projected at an 8.74 value, one of the best points-per-dollar plays on the board
Mid-tier targets ($7,300–$8,500)
On a flat board, the middle of the price range is where lineups are won — and this week it’s stacked with strong projections. These offer the best blend of points and value in that range.
- Ryo Hisatsune ($8,100 DK / $9,800 FD) — top mid-tier projection (72.8) at an 8.98 value; a high-ceiling scorer trending up
- Mac Meissner ($7,800 DK / $9,600 FD) — 72.0 projected at a 9.23 value; excellent points-per-dollar
- Andrew Novak ($7,400 DK / $9,100 FD) — 72.0 projected at a slate-best 9.72 value among playable names; the top raw value on the board
- Sungjae Im ($8,400 DK / $10,000 FD) — 70.7 projected at a lower 9.3% ownership; a steady, high-floor cash anchor and GPP pivot off the chalk
GPP leverage plays
For tournaments, these golfers pair a high ceiling with lower projected ownership — the combination that wins large-field GPPs on a chalk-heavy, wide-open slate.
- J.T. Poston ($9,300 DK) — an elite 108.0 ceiling (85th percentile) at just 11.7% ownership; the 2022 Deere champion, the top leverage play among the upper tier
- Michael Thorbjornsen ($9,000 DK) — 106.5 ceiling at 11.7% ownership; big upside at a manageable price
- Eric Cole ($9,100 DK) — 106.5 ceiling at 10.2% ownership; a consistent birdie-maker flying under the radar
- Denny McCarthy ($8,200 DK) — 102.0 ceiling at just 7.3% ownership; an elite putter, a perfect fit for pure greens and a strong sub-8% mid-tier leverage option
Finish projections — top contenders
| Golfer | DK Salary | Win % | Top 10 % | Proj. (DK) | Own % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Griffin | $10,500 | 4.8% | 34% | 85.9 | 28.5% |
| Chris Gotterup | $10,700 | 4.7% | 32% | 83.2 | 20.4% |
| Jackson Koivun | $9,400 | 4.4% | 26% | 81.0 | 34.0% |
| Keith Mitchell | $10,000 | 3.8% | 27% | 79.0 | 17.0% |
| Keegan Bradley | $9,700 | 3.3% | 27% | 78.2 | 20.5% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $9,500 | 2.9% | 23% | 76.8 | 15.9% |
| Jordan Spieth | $9,200 | 3.1% | 24% | 75.3 | 15.8% |
| J.T. Poston | $9,300 | 2.7% | 23% | 74.0 | 11.7% |
FTA projections for the John Deere Classic
Our full PGA DFS projection and sim models are updated throughout the week with the latest tee times and conditions. Access them below:
- PGA DFS DraftKings projections — projected points for every golfer in the field
- PGA DFS FanDuel projections — FD-scoring projections
- PGA DFS sim models — run thousands of tournament simulations
Good luck this week!
These picks reflect our best analysis as of 6:00 AM CT. Always check weather and tee times and confirmed fields before locking in your roster. Follow @advisors_team on Twitter for last-minute updates.
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