The PGA Tour turns the page from Royal Birkdale to Minnesota for the 2026 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. It is Minnesota’s only Tour stop, and this year it gets a headliner it has never had: Scottie Scheffler, making his 3M Open debut four days removed from a T4 finish at The Open. Behind him sits a genuinely soft board, a low-scoring parkland setup, and a FedExCup bubble that has half the field playing must-win golf over the next two weeks.
Tournament Breakdown: TPC Twin Cities
Defending Champ
Kurt Kitayama
Primary Defense
Wide, soft, scorable
TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer design that plays nothing like the links turf the Tour just left behind. Wide corridors, grown-out rough, and 27 bodies of water reward accuracy off the tee and aggressive wedge play into a scorable set of greens. The winning score has been 15-under or lower every year since 2019, and Lee Hodges set the tournament record at 24-under in 2023. That is the defining fact of this DFS slate: birdies are cheap here, so the separator is who avoids the big number, not who survives brutal conditions.
Scheffler is playing a course he has never seen, which tempers some of the usual pay-up-for-the-best-player logic, but a bad ball striker does not suddenly become a good one because the course is friendly. The bigger swing factor is the wave split. The stud tier is split almost evenly between the AM and PM waves this week, Scheffler, Matsuyama, Mitchell, Knapp, Conners, and Meissner go off in the morning, while McNealy, Kitayama, Tom Kim, Koivun, Woodland, and Finau go off in the afternoon. Check the forecast before lock. FTA Sims already prices tee times into the projections, but a wind or rain shift on Thursday morning is a live, late edge.
Golfer Tiers: EAT / PIVOT / FADE
Stud Tier ($9,000+ DK)
Scottie SchefflerDK $14,900 · FD $15,800
EAT
22.7% win | 80.2% top 20 | 92.5% cut | Proj DK own: 18.0%
Scheffler projects for 113.0 DK points, more than 30 clear of the next man on the board, with the best make-cut number in the field by nearly 17 points. He has never played TPC Twin Cities, but he is also the best ball striker alive on a course that hands the field wedges. At 18 percent ownership he is not even the most-owned golfer in his own tier. Pay up.
Keith MitchellDK $9,500 · FD $10,900
EAT
34.5% top 20 | 72.1% cut | Proj DK own: 10.8% | Lev 3.2
The best leverage number among the true stud-priced golfers. Mitchell projects inside the top five of the tier while sitting well down the ownership board, a rare combination of salary-relief-free ceiling and real safety.
Jake KnappDK $9,400 · FD $10,800
EAT
29.6% top 20 | 66.5% cut | Proj DK own: 6.3% | Lev 4.7
Knapp’s cut number is the shakiest of the group, but at 6 percent ownership with legitimate top-20 equity, he is the clearest leverage swing at the top of the salary board.
Tom KimDK $9,300 · FD $10,700
FADE
39.0% top 20 | 74.0% cut | Proj DK own: 34.5% | Lev 1.1
Fresh off a Genesis Scottish Open win, Tom Kim is the single most-owned golfer in the entire field. The number is good, but it is not 34-percent-owned good, and his leverage score is the worst in the stud tier. Fine as a cash-game floor play off the make-cut number. In large-field GPPs, this is the clearest fade on the board.
Kurt KitayamaDK $9,800 · FD $11,600
PIVOT
41.1% top 20 | 75.2% cut | Proj DK own: 27.6% | Lev 1.5
The defending champion, with a real course-history edge, he shot a tournament-record-tying 60 here last year, but the field knows it. Own the projection in cash. In GPPs, the ownership erases most of the edge.
Maverick McNealyDK $9,900 · FD $11,400
PIVOT
42.6% top 20 | 75.9% cut | Proj DK own: 20.4% | Lev 2.1
The highest raw projection outside of Scheffler, but at 20 percent own with middling leverage, he is a solid, unspectacular piece rather than a differentiator. Better in cash than GPP.
Mid Tier ($7,800 to $8,900 DK)
Gary WoodlandDK $8,800 · FD $9,900
EAT
23.4% top 20 | 62.2% cut | Proj DK own: 3.1% | Lev 7.5
The best leverage score in the mid tier by a wide margin. The cut number is the risk, but the ceiling-to-ownership ratio is exactly what a GPP build needs at this price point.
Tony FinauDK $8,200 · FD $9,800
EAT
23.6% top 20 | 62.6% cut | Proj DK own: 3.5% | Lev 6.8
Finau’s 3M Open history includes a win and five other made cuts. At 3.5 percent ownership with real top-20 equity, this is a contrarian, course-history-backed leverage play.
Sudarshan YellamarajuDK $7,900 · FD $9,700
EAT
21.0% top 20 | 61.3% cut | Proj DK own: 2.9% | Lev 7.3
The rookie name on the board nobody is rostering. Cheap, live top-20 equity, and basically free in GPP construction.
Corey ConnersDK $8,700 · FD $10,200
FADE
32.2% top 20 | 72.0% cut | Proj DK own: 21.4% | Lev 1.5
The most-owned golfer in the mid tier and the worst leverage score among the tier’s real plays. A fine cash piece off the cut floor, a GPP fade on principle.
Mac Meissner / Sungjae Im / Jordan L. SmithDK $8,100 · FD $9,500
PIVOT
All project 72.5+ DK points | Cut 68-71% | Own 11-19%
The steady anchors of the mid tier. None of them are a leverage differentiator, but all three carry real make-cut floors at fair ownership. When you spend up for Scheffler, these are the reliable pieces that round out a cash build.
Value Tier ($7,000 to $7,700 DK)
Davis ThompsonDK $7,600 · FD $9,600
EAT
21.4% top 20 | 59.6% cut | Proj DK own: 3.1% | Lev 6.9
One of the best pure leverage scores on the entire slate. Cheap and genuinely live for a top-20.
Taylor PendrithDK $7,400 · FD $9,100
EAT
19.6% top 20 | 61.7% cut | Proj DK own: 3.5% | Lev 5.7
A near-identical profile to Thompson: real ceiling, real cut equity, almost nobody rostering him.
William MouwDK $7,500 · FD $9,000
EAT
20.3% top 20 | 63.3% cut | Proj DK own: 4.2% | Lev 4.8
The best cut number of the value-tier leverage trio, which makes him the safer of the three GPP plays at the bottom of the roster.
Ben KohlesDK $7,300 · FD $8,400
FADE
27.5% top 20 | 66.5% cut | Proj DK own: 27.7% | Lev 1.0
The single most-owned golfer in the value tier, and it is not particularly close. He is the salary-saver everyone is landing on this week. Cut equity is fine, but the leverage is the worst in the field among plays this cheap. If you play him, you are matching the field, not beating it.
Casey JarvisDK $7,300 · FD $8,900
FADE
27.2% top 20 | 65.8% cut | Proj DK own: 25.5% | Lev 1.1
The second value-trap play. Similar profile to Kohles: real projection, popular price point, no leverage to show for it.
Rasmus Neergaard-PetersenDK $7,700 · FD $10,600
PIVOT
25.4% top 20 | 65.4% cut | Proj DK own: 10.1% | Lev 2.5
A reasonable middle ground between the Kohles and Jarvis chalk and the true value-tier leverage plays. Fair ownership, fair floor.
Win and Finish Probability Board
FTA Sims, top of the stud tier. Full field in the cheat sheet and BaconLab.
| Golfer |
DK |
FD |
Win% |
Top 5 |
Top 10 |
Top 20 |
Make Cut |
| Scottie Scheffler |
$14,900 |
$15,800 |
22.7% |
53.3% |
67.6% |
80.2% |
92.5% |
| Maverick McNealy |
$9,900 |
$11,400 |
3.4% |
15.8% |
26.7% |
42.6% |
75.9% |
| Kurt Kitayama |
$9,800 |
$11,600 |
3.3% |
15.3% |
25.6% |
41.1% |
75.2% |
| Hideki Matsuyama |
$9,700 |
$11,300 |
2.6% |
13.5% |
23.4% |
38.7% |
75.0% |
| Tom Kim |
$9,300 |
$10,700 |
2.3% |
13.3% |
22.9% |
39.0% |
74.0% |
| Keith Mitchell |
$9,500 |
$10,900 |
2.1% |
11.1% |
20.0% |
34.5% |
72.1% |
| Jackson Koivun |
$9,200 |
$11,100 |
2.0% |
11.1% |
20.0% |
33.5% |
71.2% |
| Doug Ghim |
$9,000 |
$10,400 |
1.7% |
9.8% |
18.1% |
32.7% |
70.4% |
| Corey Conners |
$8,700 |
$10,200 |
1.6% |
9.7% |
18.0% |
32.2% |
72.0% |
| Jake Knapp |
$9,400 |
$10,800 |
1.8% |
9.1% |
16.6% |
29.6% |
66.5% |
| Mac Meissner |
$8,100 |
$9,500 |
1.2% |
8.5% |
16.2% |
29.8% |
70.8% |
| Gary Woodland |
$8,800 |
$9,900 |
1.1% |
6.5% |
12.6% |
23.4% |
62.2% |
| Tony Finau |
$8,200 |
$9,800 |
1.1% |
6.6% |
12.8% |
23.6% |
62.6% |
Ownership Leverage Notes
The chalk to fade: Tom Kim (34.5% DK), Ben Kohles (27.7%), and Kurt Kitayama (27.6%) will be on a huge share of DK lineups this week. All three are fairly priced for their projections, but all three carry among the worst leverage scores on the board. Underweight in large-field GPPs and push that ownership toward Mitchell, Knapp, Woodland, Finau, and the value-tier leverage trio.
The value trap: Ben Kohles at $7,300 is projected for 27.7 percent ownership, the salary-saver everyone is landing on this week. His cut equity is fine, but that ownership level is untenable if you are trying to differentiate. Casey Jarvis carries an almost identical profile one price point up.
Wave watch: the stud tier is split nearly evenly across the AM and PM waves. If a front moves through Thursday morning, whichever wave draws the calmer window gains a real scoring edge. Use the wave filter in BaconLab once the forecast firms up.
Sample Builds
Cash Game Core (DK)
Every golfer 65%+ cut
Maverick McNealy$9,900
Tom Kim$9,300
Mac Meissner$8,100
Christiaan Bezuidenhout$7,900
Ben Kohles$7,300
Casey Jarvis$7,300
Total $49,800
GPP Leverage Build (DK)
No golfer above 3.5% own
Gary Woodland 3.1%$8,800
Steven Fisk 2.4%$7,500
Rasmus Hojgaard 2.0%$7,500
Tony Finau 3.5%$8,200
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 2.9%$7,900
Davis Thompson 3.1%$7,600
Total $47,500
Every golfer in the cash build carries a cut number of 65 percent or better. Ownership does not matter in cash, only survival to the weekend and a stable floor. The GPP build keeps every golfer under 3.5 percent projected ownership with a real make-cut number north of 58 percent, the leverage build if you want to be genuinely different from the field.
