These are FTA’s UFC Paris DFS picks for Saturday’s card at Accor Arena. Dan Hooker meets UFC debutant Salahdine Parnasse over five rounds at lightweight, on a 14-fight board that locks at 12:00 PM ET when the prelims begin. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, showdown captain leverage, and cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salahdine Parnasse 23-2 | $9,500 | 99.3 | 40.8% | 24 | 105.7 | 41.0% | 89.8% | -459 |
| Kurtis Campbell 10-3 | $9,300 | 92.0 | 36.2% | 22 | 96.6 | 40.6% | 85.8% | -382 |
| Mario Pinto 11-0 | $9,100 | 90.5 | 42.2% | 20 | 95.6 | 53.5% | 81.5% | -270 |
| Daniil Donchenko 15-1 | $9,000 | 85.0 | 31.9% | 19 | 93.5 | 49.7% | 77.2% | -225 |
| Losene Keita 16-2 | $9,200 | 83.5 | 27.3% | 21 | 89.6 | 28.1% | 84.5% | -333 |
| Nathaniel Wood 21-7 | $9,200 | 78.7 | 27.6% | 18 | 82.0 | 46.1% | 81.7% | -291 |
| Oumar Sy 14-0 | $8,800 | 70.0 | 25.6% | 18 | 72.0 | 30.1% | 74.1% | -225 |
| Felipe Lima 14-1 | $8,900 | 66.7 | 19.8% | 19 | 68.9 | 19.3% | 69.3% | -191 |
| Michael Aljarouj 8-1 | $8,400 | 60.2 | 11.2% | 17 | 59.7 | 4.4% | 56.3% | -118 |
| Delphine Benouaich 8-3 | $8,500 | 61.1 | 12.2% | 15 | 58.2 | 8.7% | 62.0% | -132 |
| Klaudia Sygula 10-3 | $7,900 | 57.4 | 32.4% | 14 | 57.5 | 28.3% | 49.3% | -108 |
| Dan Hooker 24-14 | $6,700 | 31.8 | 36.3% | 8 | 34.1 | 33.4% | 10.2% | +525 |
Full 28-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
Low ownership is not the same as leverage
Three fighters on this card sit at roughly 3% DraftKings ownership: Michael Page, Ryan Spann and Modestas Bukauskas. On a naive points-per-ownership basis they look like the biggest edges of the year. They are not, and the reason is worth spelling out because it recurs every week.
Page is a 66.0% favorite and still projects only 54.1 points, because he wins by decision. His finish rate is 24.9% and he averages 73 seconds of control. DraftKings pays 0.03 per second of control and awards a large finish bonus, and Page collects neither. Spann and Bukauskas have the two lowest projections on the entire board at 25.9 and 30.6.
The field is avoiding all three correctly. Points per ownership point divides by a number close to zero, so anyone nobody rosters scores enormously regardless of whether the projection is any good. A leverage play has to clear the projection bar first, then be underowned. Only then is the low ownership worth something.
UFC Paris DFS picks: the core plays
Michael Aljarouj ($8,400 DK / 17 FD) is the real leverage play at 5.36. He is 56.3% to win in a fight the market calls a coin flip at -118, projecting 60.2 with 112 seconds of control, and he draws 11.2% DraftKings and just 4.4% FanDuel ownership.
Delphine Benouaich ($8,500 DK / 15 FD) is 62.0% to win at 12.2% DK and 8.7% FD, a 5.02 figure, with 136 seconds of projected control giving her a floor that does not need a finish.
Losene Keita ($9,200 DK / 21 FD) is the best of the expensive options at 3.05, an 84.5% favorite at 27.3% ownership.
Showdown: the captain slot
The late showdown covers eight fights, one captain at 1.5x salary and points plus five flex, under a $50,000 cap. The cheapest legal roster costs $35,500, so salary is not the binding constraint and captain selection is most of the decision.
| Fighter | CPT Salary | CPT Proj | CPT Own | FLEX Own | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salahdine Parnasse | $14,100 | 148.9 | 9.0% | 41.2% | 32.2 |
| Kurtis Campbell | $13,500 | 138.0 | 9.6% | 33.0% | 23.4 |
| Mario Pinto | $12,900 | 135.8 | 14.2% | 35.9% | 21.7 |
| Daniil Donchenko | $12,300 | 127.5 | 11.7% | 39.1% | 27.4 |
| Losene Keita | $13,200 | 125.3 | 8.7% | 29.2% | 20.5 |
| Felipe Lima | $12,000 | 100.1 | 5.9% | 27.2% | 21.3 |
| Fares Ziam | $11,100 | 94.9 | 5.8% | 41.3% | 35.5 |
| Michael Page | $11,400 | 81.1 | 4.0% | 28.8% | 24.8 |
| Axel Sola | $10,500 | 74.5 | 5.2% | 26.2% | 21.0 |
| Morgan Charriere | $9,900 | 66.9 | 5.0% | 24.0% | 19.0 |
Fares Ziam has the widest gap on the slate: 41.3% of flex lineups against 5.8% at captain, a 35.5 point swing. Parnasse is close behind at 41.2% flex and 9.0% captain. The top captain projection on the card belongs to Parnasse at 148.9, and only one lineup in eleven has him there.
Full card breakdown
Salahdine Parnasse vs Dan Hooker
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salahdine Parnasse 23-2 | 89.8% | $9,500 / 99.3 | 24 / 105.7 | 40.8% | -459 |
| Dan Hooker 24-14 | 10.2% | $6,700 / 31.8 | 8 / 34.1 | 36.3% | +525 |
The top projection on both sites at 99.3 DK and 105.7 FD, making his UFC debut at 23-2 after five straight finishes in KSW and MVP. The model gives him 89.8% against a market implying 82.1%, and a 75.9% finish rate that leads the card. He is also the heaviest chalk at 40.8% DK and 41.0% FD ownership. Worth knowing what you are buying: everything on his record was earned outside the UFC, and no fighter outside the very top of this division has finished Dan Hooker.
Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fares Ziam 18-4 | 62.1% | $8,600 / 63.3 | 16 / 65.0 | 22.4% | -150 |
| Axel Sola 12-1 | 38.0% | $7,600 / 49.7 | 15 / 48.1 | 17.8% | +143 |
62.1% to win in the co-main at 22.4% ownership, projecting 63.3 with 97 seconds of control. The market has this closer than the model does at -150. Sola at 12-1 is live at +143 and draws 17.8% ownership, so neither side of this fight is heavily exposed.
Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page 23-3 | 66.0% | $8,700 / 54.1 | 17 / 52.0 | 3.0% | -163 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev 36-9-2 | 34.0% | $7,500 / 42.5 | 14 / 40.2 | 17.8% | +173 |
A cautionary note rather than a play. Page is a 66.0% favorite at 3.0% DraftKings ownership, which looks like enormous leverage until you see why: he projects only 54.1 despite winning, because he is a decision fighter with a 24.9% finish rate and 73 seconds of control, and DraftKings pays for neither. The field is avoiding him correctly. Low ownership alone is not an edge.
Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Donchenko 15-1 | 77.2% | $9,000 / 85.0 | 19 / 93.5 | 31.9% | -225 |
| Punahele Soriano 11-6 | 22.8% | $7,200 / 38.1 | 10 / 41.3 | 20.2% | +200 |
15-1 and 77.2% to win, projecting 85.0 DK and 93.5 FD. The FanDuel ownership is the issue at 49.7%, essentially half the field, against 31.9% on DraftKings. Same fighter, very different exposure depending where you play.
Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Lima 14-1 | 69.3% | $8,900 / 66.7 | 19 / 68.9 | 19.8% | -191 |
| Morgan Charriere 21-11-1 | 30.7% | $7,300 / 44.6 | 11 / 46.9 | 17.8% | +180 |
69.3% to win at 19.8% DraftKings and 19.3% FanDuel ownership, a 3.38 leverage figure and 99 seconds of projected control. Charriere is 21-11-1 and the model gives him 30.7% against a market price of +180, so the market agrees with the direction if not the size.
Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Losene Keita 16-2 | 84.5% | $9,200 / 83.5 | 21 / 89.6 | 27.3% | -333 |
| Muhammad Naimov 13-6 | 15.5% | $7,000 / 29.4 | 9 / 31.5 | 23.0% | +312 |
84.5% to win with a 3.05 leverage figure, the best of anyone projecting above 80 points. He is $9,200 with 75 seconds of control and a 54.3% finish rate, at 27.3% DraftKings and 28.1% FanDuel ownership. Naimov is 13-6 and the model gives him 15.5%, which is one of the wider gaps on the card between a respectable record and a projected outcome.
Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pinto 11-0 | 81.5% | $9,100 / 90.5 | 20 / 95.6 | 42.2% | -270 |
| Ryan Spann 23-10 | 18.5% | $7,100 / 25.9 | 10 / 27.2 | 3.1% | +295 |
11-0 and the most owned fighter on DraftKings at 42.2%, rising to 53.5% on FanDuel, where more than half the field is on him. He is 81.5% to win with a 64.9% finish rate, so the projection is real. But a 2.14 leverage figure is among the weakest on the card, and an undefeated prospect against a 23-10 veteran is exactly the profile the field piles onto.
Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Campbell 10-3 | 85.8% | $9,300 / 92.0 | 22 / 96.6 | 36.2% | -382 |
| Trevor Peek 10-3 | 14.2% | $6,900 / 30.4 | 9 / 32.6 | 10.0% | +320 |
Second highest projection on the card at 92.0 DK and 96.6 FD, with 159 seconds of projected control, the most on the slate. He is 85.8% to win against a market implying 79.3%. Ownership is heavy at 36.2% DK and 40.6% FD. Worth noting his projections only appeared in the latest run, so anyone who built lineups earlier in the week may not have him.
Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Sy 14-0 | 74.1% | $8,800 / 70.0 | 18 / 72.0 | 25.6% | -225 |
| Modestas Bukauskas 19-7 | 25.9% | $7,400 / 30.6 | 13 / 31.3 | 3.6% | +200 |
Oumar Sy is the model favorite at 74.1%. 111 seconds of projected control time supports the floor.
Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood 21-7 | 81.7% | $9,200 / 78.7 | 18 / 82.0 | 27.6% | -291 |
| Pavel Andrusca 11-2 | 18.3% | $7,000 / 35.8 | 11 / 38.0 | 14.1% | +250 |
81.7% to win at 27.6% DraftKings ownership, but note the site split: 46.1% on FanDuel, nearly twice as much. He projects 109 seconds of control and only a 32.3% finish rate, so this is an accumulation profile rather than a finishing one. That makes him a better DraftKings piece than a FanDuel one, since DraftKings pays for control and FanDuel does not.
Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Aljarouj 8-1 | 56.3% | $8,400 / 60.2 | 17 / 59.7 | 11.2% | -118 |
| Fabia Sintes 8-2 | 43.7% | $7,800 / 49.9 | 12 / 48.7 | 20.3% | +105 |
The best leverage on the card at 5.36 once you exclude fighters the field is avoiding for good reason. He is 56.3% to win in a near coin flip the market prices at -118, projecting 60.2 with 112 seconds of control, and he draws only 11.2% DraftKings and 4.4% FanDuel ownership. On FanDuel in particular that is close to nobody.
Klaudia Sygula vs Nora Cornolle
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klaudia Sygula 10-3 | 49.3% | $7,900 / 57.4 | 14 / 57.5 | 32.4% | -108 |
| Nora Cornolle 10-3 | 50.7% | $8,300 / 56.6 | 15 / 59.9 | 14.6% | -105 |
Nora Cornolle is the model favorite at 50.7%. At only 14.6% DK ownership.
Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthieu Duclos 13-2 | 52.4% | $8,200 / 58.3 | 15 / 62.3 | 21.5% | -110 |
| Luis Felipe Dias 11-2 | 47.7% | $8,000 / 56.1 | 15 / 59.9 | 13.8% | -102 |
Matthieu Duclos is the model favorite at 52.4%.
Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delphine Benouaich 8-3 | 62.0% | $8,500 / 61.1 | 15 / 58.2 | 12.2% | -132 |
| Sofia Montenegro 6-2 | 38.0% | $7,700 / 46.2 | 12 / 43.6 | 20.3% | +130 |
62.0% to win at 12.2% DraftKings ownership and 8.7% on FanDuel, a 5.02 leverage figure. She projects 136 seconds of control, third most on the card, which gives her a floor that does not depend on finding a finish. The market has her at -132, so this is a fight it considers close, and the field has priced her like an afterthought.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Campbell | $9,300 | 92.0 | 85.8% | 36.2% |
| Mario Pinto | $9,100 | 90.5 | 81.5% | 42.2% |
| Michael Aljarouj | $8,400 | 60.2 | 56.3% | 11.2% |
| Matthieu Duclos | $8,200 | 58.3 | 52.4% | 21.5% |
| Nora Cornolle | $8,300 | 56.6 | 50.7% | 14.6% |
| Dan Hooker | $6,700 | 31.8 | 10.2% | 36.3% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 389.5 | 162.0% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point, restricted to fighters at or above the median projection so the build cannot fill up on cheap bodies nobody rosters.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Losene Keita | $9,200 | 83.5 | 84.5% | 27.3% |
| Felipe Lima | $8,900 | 66.7 | 69.3% | 19.8% |
| Delphine Benouaich | $8,500 | 61.1 | 62.0% | 12.2% |
| Michael Aljarouj | $8,400 | 60.2 | 56.3% | 11.2% |
| Nora Cornolle | $8,300 | 56.6 | 50.7% | 14.6% |
| Dan Hooker | $6,700 | 31.8 | 10.2% | 36.3% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 359.9 | 121.3% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Campbell | $9,300 | 92.0 | 85.8% | 36.2% |
| Daniil Donchenko | $9,000 | 85.0 | 77.2% | 31.9% |
| Michael Aljarouj | $8,400 | 60.2 | 56.3% | 11.2% |
| Matthieu Duclos | $8,200 | 58.3 | 52.4% | 21.5% |
| Axel Sola | $7,600 | 49.7 | 38.0% | 17.8% |
| Morgan Charriere | $7,300 | 44.6 | 30.7% | 17.8% |
| Totals | $49,800 | 389.8 | 136.4% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Campbell | 22 | 96.6 | 85.8% | 40.6% |
| Mario Pinto | 20 | 95.6 | 81.5% | 53.5% |
| Daniil Donchenko | 19 | 93.5 | 77.2% | 49.7% |
| Losene Keita | 21 | 89.6 | 84.5% | 28.1% |
| Nathaniel Wood | 18 | 82.0 | 81.7% | 46.1% |
| Totals | 100 units | 457.3 | 218.0% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salahdine Parnasse | 24 | 105.7 | 89.8% | 41.0% |
| Losene Keita | 21 | 89.6 | 84.5% | 28.1% |
| Luis Felipe Dias | 15 | 59.9 | 47.7% | 11.2% |
| Michael Aljarouj | 17 | 59.7 | 56.3% | 4.4% |
| Delphine Benouaich | 15 | 58.2 | 62.0% | 8.7% |
| Totals | 92 units | 373.0 | 93.4% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Dan Hooker is the worst leverage figure on the board at 0.88, drawing 36.3% DraftKings ownership on a 10.2% win probability against a +525 market price. He is the recognisable name in a main event against a debutant, and the field is paying for 24 UFC fights of history.
Mario Pinto is the heaviest chalk at 42.2% DK and 53.5% FD, more than half the FanDuel field. The 81.5% win probability is real and so is the 64.9% finish rate, but a 2.14 leverage figure means you are matching the room rather than beating it.
Klaudia Sygula draws 32.4% ownership on a 49.3% win probability in a fight the market prices as a true pick’em at -108 and -105. A third of the field on a coin flip is a lot of exposure for no information.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again. The calibration returns an R squared of 0.994 with a slope of 1.435 across all 14 fights, the tightest fit we have measured. The model is tracking the market line and stretching it at the extremes rather than disagreeing with it. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC Paris?
Michael Aljarouj at 5.36 points per ownership point, 56.3% to win at 11.2% DraftKings and 4.4% FanDuel ownership.
Is Michael Page a leverage play at 3% ownership?
No. He projects 54.1 despite being a 66.0% favorite, because he wins by decision and DraftKings pays for finishes and control time. Low ownership alone is not an edge.
Can you roster six favorites on DraftKings?
No. The six cheapest total $50,700 against a $50,000 cap.
What time does the card lock?
12:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 5, 2026, when the prelims begin.
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