South Point 400 DFS Picks: Las Vegas DraftKings and FanDuel
A fast 1.5-mile intermediate where the pole sitter is the heaviest chalk of the year. Here is how to attack Las Vegas on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Chase rolls into Las Vegas for the fifth playoff race, a fast 1.5-mile quad-oval where track position and long green-flag runs decide the day. After a stretch of Chase qualifying rainouts, the field finally time-trialed, and Denny Hamlin put his Toyota on the pole ahead of three teammates. That single lap reshaped the entire DFS board, because Hamlin is now the most popular play of the season.
The dominators
Over 267 laps on a mile-and-a-half, laps led and fastest laps are worth a fortune, and the front of the grid is stacked with speed.
Hamlin rolls off the pole with a field-high 53.7 projected laps led and 28.5 fastest laps, a 58-point ceiling, and he was also the Vegas pole-sitter a year ago. The dominator upside is the biggest on the board. The catch is enormous ownership: at 73 percent he is the heaviest chalk of the year. A near-lock for cash, but he wins you nothing in tournaments unless the rest of the lineup separates.
The best dominator play that is not Hamlin. Larson starts sixth with 19.7 projected laps led as a former Vegas winner who led 137 laps here in 2021. At 31 percent owned he is the laps-led pivot to build around when fading the chalk.
A badly underowned laps-led play. Bell is a multi-time Vegas pole winner starting third with 17.1 projected laps led, yet only 12 percent owned. Elite speed at a fraction of the chalk, one of the best tournament pivots on the board.
The leverage front-runners
The strongest edge this week sits in the cars starting right behind Hamlin, all with laps-led upside and almost no ownership.
The lowest-owned front-runner on the board at just 8 percent. Reddick starts fifth with 12.1 projected laps led and the speed to run up front all day. A pure leverage dart with laps-led upside that almost nobody in the field will have.
Gibbs starts on the outside pole with 18.3 projected laps led, the field-second total, yet only 14 percent owned. Front-running speed badly underowned, a genuine tournament separator if he can lead laps early.
Briscoe starts fourth with 14.4 projected laps led at just 14 percent owned. Another front-running Toyota the field is ignoring, a strong leverage play if he holds track position.
The place-differential plays
The lone Chase driver starting deep, which makes him the obvious place-differential play among the contenders. Logano starts 23rd with a +7.9 projection and a projectable finish. A solid core value with real upside from the back.
Berry starts 35th after failing to post a qualifying lap, and the deep start gives him a board-high +14.1 place-differential and the best value on the board. The points are elite, but at 51 percent owned he is heavy chalk. Fine in cash, a leverage sink in tournaments.
A cheap place-differential dart from 30th with a +7.8 projection and a strong value. Smith frees up salary for the top of the board and offers a projectable finish from deep at a fair price.
How to build it
Cash game core
Tournament build
Contrarian angle
The bottom line
Las Vegas comes down to one question: what do you do with Denny Hamlin? At 73 percent owned he is the heaviest chalk of the year, with the ceiling to justify it and the ownership to sink your leverage. In cash, play him. In tournaments, the edge is in the pivots, Larson for laps led, the underowned front-runners Reddick, Bell and Gibbs, and Logano climbing from deep. Fade some of that chalk and you have a lineup with the same ceiling as the field at a fraction of the ownership. Then remember it is a 1.5-mile track where a late caution can shuffle the running order, so leave room for the chaos.