These are FTA’s UFC 332 DFS picks for Saturday’s card at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Natalia Silva meets Wang Cong for the vacant flyweight title over five rounds, on a 14-fight board that locks at 4:00 PM ET on both sites. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, showdown captain leverage, and cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobe Smith 12-0 |
$9,800 | 109.7 | 27.9% | 24 | 117.2 | 39.0% | 89.9% | -872 |
| Damian Pinas 10-1 |
$9,400 | 91.5 | 27.2% | 22 | 97.9 | 31.9% | 83.0% | -491 |
| Anthony Wint 8-0 |
$9,300 | 91.3 | 28.7% | 21 | 94.8 | 30.3% | 82.9% | -491 |
| Payton Talbott 11-1 |
$9,600 | 87.1 | 19.1% | 23 | 94.7 | 18.8% | 86.0% | -611 |
| Marcus McGhee 11-2 |
$8,500 | 80.5 | 33.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 82.7% | -450 |
| Roberto Soldic 21-4 |
$9,200 | 78.2 | 25.7% | 19 | 85.7 | 37.9% | 66.1% | -209 |
| Alexander Hernandez 18-9 |
$9,100 | 77.1 | 21.3% | 19 | 81.4 | 26.8% | 71.6% | -260 |
| Natalia Silva 20-5-1 |
$8,700 | 75.1 | 26.1% | 20 | 78.4 | 18.1% | 65.7% | -200 |
| Eric Nolan 8-5 |
$9,000 | 67.2 | 17.7% | 18 | 71.5 | 20.5% | 68.0% | -225 |
| Wang Cong 10-1 |
$7,500 | 61.0 | 30.3% | 15 | 64.8 | 25.7% | 34.3% | +180 |
| Khaos Williams 16-5 |
$7,000 | 45.2 | 25.8% | 9 | 49.7 | 31.6% | 33.9% | +210 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo 25-7-1 |
$6,600 | 30.0 | 10.7% | 8 | 30.8 | 9.5% | 14.0% | +575 |
Full 28-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
The best play is in the co-main, and the reason is the other guy’s name
Payton Talbott is 86.0% to win and draws 19.1% DraftKings ownership. That is a 4.57 leverage figure, the highest we have measured in weeks, and it exists for one reason: Deiveson Figueiredo is a former flyweight champion with 25 wins, and the field is treating this fight as closer than it is.
The model gives Figueiredo 14.0%. The market gives him 14.8% at +575. Both agree. Yet he still draws 10.7% ownership, and more importantly Talbott’s own ownership sits below 20% on both sites for a fighter projecting 87.1 DraftKings and 94.7 FanDuel.
This is the cleanest version of a pattern that shows up most weeks: a recognisable name on the wrong side of a fight suppresses the favorite’s ownership, and that is where the edge is.
UFC 332 DFS picks: the core plays
Jacobe Smith ($9,800 DK / 24 FD) is the top projection on the card at 109.7, built on an 81.8% finish rate, the highest on the slate by a distance. He is 12-0 and 89.9% to win at 27.9% ownership for a 3.93 figure.
Eric Nolan ($9,000 DK / 18 FD) is at 3.79, a 68.0% favorite at 17.7% ownership while Court McGee, the 22-14 veteran he is facing, draws more at 22.5%.
Alexander Hernandez ($9,100 DK / 19 FD) is at 3.61 against Rafael Dos Anjos, the same story in a different fight: a former champion’s record drawing attention the projection does not support.
Showdown: nine fights on the televised slate
The showdown covers nine fights with one captain at 1.5x salary and points plus five flex, under a $50,000 cap. The cheapest legal roster costs $32,900, so captain choice is most of the decision.
| Fighter | CPT Salary | CPT Proj | CPT Own | FLEX Own | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Pinas | $13,200 | 137.3 | 8.9% | 42.8% | 33.9 |
| Anthony Wint | $12,900 | 137.0 | 7.7% | 45.5% | 37.8 |
| Payton Talbott | $14,100 | 130.7 | 4.5% | 37.0% | 32.5 |
| Marcus McGhee | $13,500 | 120.7 | 4.0% | 34.5% | 30.5 |
| Roberto Soldic | $12,300 | 117.3 | 8.3% | 42.0% | 33.7 |
| Natalia Silva | $11,100 | 112.7 | 10.2% | 32.4% | 22.2 |
| Esteban Ribovics | $11,700 | 111.6 | 7.2% | 39.0% | 31.8 |
| Ateba Gautier | $11,400 | 110.7 | 9.5% | 39.3% | 29.8 |
| Imanol Rodriguez | $10,500 | 98.3 | 7.2% | 34.2% | 27.0 |
| Wang Cong | $9,600 | 91.6 | 9.5% | 23.7% | 14.2 |
Anthony Wint has the widest gap at 45.5% flex against 7.7% captain, a 37.8 point swing. Damian Pinas holds the top captain projection at 137.3 on 8.9% ownership, and Payton Talbott is the most extreme relative to his quality: 4.5% captain ownership on a fighter the model gives 86.0% to win.
Full card breakdown
Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalia Silva 20-5-1 | 65.7% | $8,700 / 75.1 | 20 / 78.4 | 26.1% | -200 |
| Wang Cong 10-1 | 34.3% | $7,500 / 61.0 | 15 / 64.8 | 30.3% | +180 |
The vacant flyweight title and 65.7% to win, with 154 seconds of projected control across five rounds. She projects 75.1 DraftKings and draws 26.1% ownership against Wang Cong’s 30.3%, which is unusual for a fight the market prices at -200. A 22.7% finish rate means most of her value comes from accumulation rather than a stoppage, so the five-round format matters more here than on most cards.
Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott 11-1 | 86.0% | $9,600 / 87.1 | 23 / 94.7 | 19.1% | -611 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo 25-7-1 | 14.0% | $6,600 / 30.0 | 8 / 30.8 | 10.7% | +575 |
The best play on the card at a 4.57 leverage figure, the highest we have measured in weeks. He is 86.0% to win against a market implying 85.9%, projects 87.1 DraftKings and 94.7 FanDuel, and draws only 19.1% and 18.8% ownership. The reason is on the other side of the cage: Deiveson Figueiredo is a former flyweight champion and the recognisable name, and the field is treating this as closer than it is. The model gives Figueiredo 14.0% and the market has him at +575.
King Green vs Esteban Ribovics
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green 36-17-1 | 31.9% | $7,300 / 51.5 | 12 / 56.6 | 24.4% | +175 |
| Esteban Ribovics 16-3 | 68.1% | $8,900 / 74.4 | 17 / 83.5 | 25.4% | -198 |
68.1% to win in a fight the market calls -198, projecting 74.4 DraftKings and 83.5 FanDuel. FanDuel ownership is 45.4%, the highest of any fighter on that site, against 25.4% on DraftKings. King Green is 36-17-1 and the veteran name, and the model gives him 31.9%.
Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldic
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaos Williams 16-5 | 33.9% | $7,000 / 45.2 | 9 / 49.7 | 25.8% | +210 |
| Roberto Soldic 21-4 | 66.1% | $9,200 / 78.2 | 19 / 85.7 | 25.7% | -209 |
66.1% to win at 25.7% DraftKings ownership and a 3.04 figure, with a 53.7% finish rate. The FanDuel split is the thing to watch: 37.9% there against 25.7% on DraftKings. Khaos Williams on the other side carries the worst leverage figure on the slate.
Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov 15-5 | 30.5% | $7,400 / 37.8 | 12 / 40.6 | 15.4% | +207 |
| Ateba Gautier 11-1 | 69.5% | $8,800 / 73.8 | 18 / 81.8 | 28.6% | -225 |
69.5% to win at 28.6% DraftKings and 39.0% FanDuel ownership, projecting 73.8 with a 49.4% finish rate. The market has this at -225 against Roman Kopylov. A 2.58 figure is middling, and the FanDuel exposure in particular means you are paying close to market for it.
Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alden Coria 13-3 | 41.3% | $7,600 / 49.8 | 13 / 51.0 | 20.8% | +130 |
| Imanol Rodriguez 7-0 | 58.7% | $8,600 / 65.6 | 17 / 67.8 | 23.0% | -137 |
7-0 and 58.7% to win with 123 seconds of projected control, at 23.0% ownership and a 2.85 figure. The market has this close at -137 against Alden Coria, who is 13-3 and gets 41.3%. A reasonable play without being a standout.
Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Pinas 10-1 | 83.0% | $9,400 / 91.5 | 22 / 97.9 | 27.2% | -491 |
| Andrey Pulyaev 10-5 | 17.0% | $6,800 / 26.5 | 8 / 28.9 | 9.6% | +700 |
83.0% to win with a 66.7% finish rate, projecting 91.5 DraftKings and 97.9 FanDuel at a 3.36 figure. He is 10-1 against Andrey Pulyaev at 10-5, and the market has this at -491. Ownership is reasonable at 27.2% DK and 31.9% FD for a fighter this well positioned.
Marcus McGhee vs Anthony Romero
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus McGhee 11-2 | 82.7% | $8,500 / 80.5 | n/a / n/a | 33.5% | -450 |
| Anthony Romero 7-2 | 17.3% | $6,700 / 30.4 | n/a / n/a | 11.4% | +420 |
82.7% to win and projecting 80.5 at $8,500, but read the slate note first. His original opponent Benardo Sopaj withdrew injured and Anthony Romero stepped in. DraftKings reflects that and FanDuel does not, so this fight is DraftKings only. Ownership is heavy at 33.5%, the highest on the card, which suggests the DraftKings field has noticed the replacement is a step down.
Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wint 8-0 | 82.9% | $9,300 / 91.3 | 21 / 94.8 | 28.7% | -491 |
| Lucas Armand 6-0 | 17.1% | $6,900 / 24.9 | 9 / 25.5 | 9.1% | +500 |
8-0 and 82.9% to win with a 71.4% finish rate, the second highest on the card. He projects 91.3 at $9,300 and draws 28.7% ownership. Lucas Armand is 6-0 and also unbeaten, which is presumably why the field is not more lopsided, but the model and the market both give Wint the fight comfortably at -491.
Mick Parkin vs Johnny Walker
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Parkin 10-1 | 46.6% | $7,800 / 53.6 | 13 / 57.2 | 25.9% | +110 |
| Johnny Walker 22-10 | 53.4% | $8,400 / 52.7 | 15 / 57.1 | 18.1% | -112 |
The closest fight on the card. The model gives Walker 53.4% against Mick Parkin’s 46.6%, and the market agrees at -112 and +110. Worth noting the weigh-in figures: Parkin came in at 265.5 against a 265 pound heavyweight limit, so check how that was resolved before locking lineups. Neither man is heavily owned and there is no leverage either way.
Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobe Smith 12-0 | 89.9% | $9,800 / 109.7 | 24 / 117.2 | 27.9% | -872 |
| Bruce Whitehead 8-2 | 10.1% | $6,400 / 19.2 | 7 / 20.3 | 6.9% | +800 |
12-0 and the top projection on the slate at 109.7 DraftKings and 117.2 FanDuel, built on an 81.8% finish rate, the highest on the card by a distance. He is 89.9% to win at -872 and draws 27.9% ownership for a 3.93 figure. Expensive at $9,800 and still worth it: nothing else here combines that win probability with that finish rate.
Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael Dos Anjos
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez 18-9 | 71.6% | $9,100 / 77.1 | 19 / 81.4 | 21.3% | -260 |
| Rafael Dos Anjos 32-17 | 28.4% | $7,100 / 38.9 | 10 / 41.0 | 15.1% | +228 |
71.6% to win at 21.3% ownership with 116 seconds of projected control and a 3.61 figure. Rafael Dos Anjos is 32-17 and a former lightweight champion, which is where the attention goes, but the model gives him 28.4% and the market agrees at +228. Another fight where the record and the projection point in opposite directions.
Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori 19-9-1 | 44.2% | $7,900 / 52.6 | 14 / 52.4 | 20.0% | +118 |
| Ismail Naurdiev 25-8 | 55.8% | $8,300 / 60.4 | 16 / 65.3 | 22.6% | -134 |
A near coin flip the model gives 55.8% against Marvin Vettori’s 44.2%, with the market at -134 and +118. Vettori is 19-9-1 and the far bigger name, a former middleweight title challenger, and he still draws only 20.0% DraftKings ownership against Naurdiev’s 22.6%. Naurdiev projects 60.4 with 54 seconds of control and a 26.2% finish rate, so this is a decision profile on both sides. There is no real edge here either way, which is worth saying plainly rather than manufacturing one.
Court McGee vs Eric Nolan
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Court McGee 22-14 | 32.0% | $7,200 / 48.8 | 11 / 48.2 | 22.5% | +198 |
| Eric Nolan 8-5 | 68.0% | $9,000 / 67.2 | 18 / 71.5 | 17.7% | -225 |
A 3.79 leverage figure, 68.0% to win at only 17.7% DraftKings and 20.5% FanDuel ownership, in a fight the market prices at -225. Court McGee is 22-14 and the familiar name at 32.0%, drawing 22.5% ownership, which is more than Nolan despite being the underdog. That is the wrong way round.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wint | $9,300 | 91.3 | 82.9% | 28.7% |
| Marcus McGhee | $8,500 | 80.5 | 82.7% | 33.5% |
| Natalia Silva | $8,700 | 75.1 | 65.7% | 26.1% |
| Ateba Gautier | $8,800 | 73.8 | 69.5% | 28.6% |
| Ismail Naurdiev | $8,300 | 60.4 | 55.8% | 22.6% |
| Bruce Whitehead | $6,400 | 19.2 | 10.1% | 6.9% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 400.4 | 146.3% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point, restricted to fighters at or above the median projection so the build cannot fill up on cheap bodies nobody rosters.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobe Smith | $9,800 | 109.7 | 89.9% | 27.9% |
| Damian Pinas | $9,400 | 91.5 | 83.0% | 27.2% |
| Payton Talbott | $9,600 | 87.1 | 86.0% | 19.1% |
| Wang Cong | $7,500 | 61.0 | 34.3% | 30.3% |
| Khaos Williams | $7,000 | 45.2 | 33.9% | 25.8% |
| Anthony Romero | $6,700 | 30.4 | 17.3% | 11.4% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 425.0 | 141.7% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobe Smith | $9,800 | 109.7 | 89.9% | 27.9% |
| Damian Pinas | $9,400 | 91.5 | 83.0% | 27.2% |
| Natalia Silva | $8,700 | 75.1 | 65.7% | 26.1% |
| King Green | $7,300 | 51.5 | 31.9% | 24.4% |
| Alden Coria | $7,600 | 49.8 | 41.3% | 20.8% |
| Khaos Williams | $7,000 | 45.2 | 33.9% | 25.8% |
| Totals | $49,800 | 422.9 | 152.3% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobe Smith | 24 | 117.2 | 89.9% | 39.0% |
| Damian Pinas | 22 | 97.9 | 83.0% | 31.9% |
| Roberto Soldic | 19 | 85.7 | 66.1% | 37.9% |
| Esteban Ribovics | 17 | 83.5 | 68.1% | 45.4% |
| Ateba Gautier | 18 | 81.8 | 69.5% | 39.0% |
| Totals | 100 units | 466.2 | 193.1% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Pinas | 22 | 97.9 | 83.0% | 31.9% |
| Payton Talbott | 23 | 94.7 | 86.0% | 18.8% |
| Natalia Silva | 20 | 78.4 | 65.7% | 18.1% |
| Eric Nolan | 18 | 71.5 | 68.0% | 20.5% |
| Imanol Rodriguez | 17 | 67.8 | 58.7% | 21.7% |
| Totals | 100 units | 410.4 | 111.0% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Khaos Williams carries the worst leverage figure on the slate at 1.75: 25.8% DraftKings and 31.6% FanDuel ownership on a 33.9% win probability against a +210 price. A 23.3% finish rate and 41 seconds of projected control mean he banks very little in defeat.
Wang Cong draws 30.3% DraftKings ownership on a 34.3% win probability in the main event. A title fight pulls exposure regardless of the numbers, and at +180 the market agrees with the model about who wins.
Esteban Ribovics is the FanDuel-specific problem at 45.4% ownership there, the highest of any fighter on that site, against 25.4% on DraftKings for a fighter priced at only -198.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again, and this week the calibration is as close to the market as it has ever come: an R squared of 0.991 with a slope of 1.003 across the priced fights. A slope of essentially 1.0 means the model is not stretching the market at all, it is reproducing it. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC 332?
Payton Talbott at 4.57, 86.0% to win at 19.1% DraftKings and 18.8% FanDuel ownership.
Is Marcus McGhee still fighting?
Yes, against Anthony Romero. Benardo Sopaj withdrew injured. FanDuel’s slate still shows the cancelled pairing.
Can you roster six favorites on DraftKings?
No. The six cheapest total $51,300 against a $50,000 cap.
What time does the card lock?
4:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 3, 2026, on both sites.
FTA+ members get the full UFC 332 cheat sheet with every fighter tiered plus a showdown tab, and the complete projections board.