How often every NFL player has actually cleared the line his book is posting right now. Pick a market, filter to home or road, favorite or underdog, day or night, and choose how far back to look. The hit rate is recalculated against the live line, so it moves when the line moves.

What win percent actually means here

Most trend pages precompute a hit rate and leave it there. The problem is that a hit rate belongs to a specific number: a receiver who cleared 75.5 yards in four of five games has a different record against 84.5, and the line moves all week. This board carries every player’s game log, 2025 and 2026, and counts the games against whatever line is posted at the moment you load it. Change the split or the sample size and it recounts instantly, because the counting happens in your browser rather than on our server.

Reading the matchup grade

The grade is specific to the market you are looking at, not a general rating of the defense. A defense can be an A matchup for receptions and a D for rushing yards, and a single rating hides exactly the thing you are trying to find. Each grade comes from what that defense has actually allowed in that market per game, with last season counted at a third of the weight of this one, then ranked one to thirty two.

Edge, and how far to trust it

Edge is the hit rate minus the probability the posted price implies. It is a screen, not a verdict, because it compares something backward looking to something forward looking. Five games is five coin flips, so a 100 percent hit rate on a last five window is thin evidence, and splits thin it further: three of three on the road tells you less than six of ten overall. Widen the sample size and see whether the trend survives. Pushes, where a player lands exactly on the line, are excluded from the record rather than counted as wins.

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