These are FTA’s UFC Shanghai DFS picks for Saturday’s card at the Oriental Sports Center. Umar Nurmagomedov meets Yadong Song in a five-round bantamweight main event on a 13-fight board that locks at 3:00 AM ET. That is a Shanghai start time, so lineups need setting the night before if you are in the United States. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, showdown captain leverage, and cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov 20-1 | $9,500 | 116.0 | 50.4% | 22 | 113.3 | 52.7% | 89.0% | -525 |
| Rei Tsuruya 11-1 | $9,700 | 95.4 | 24.3% | 23 | 97.5 | 24.5% | 90.1% | -721 |
| Bilal Hasan 9-0 | $9,600 | 93.1 | 35.1% | 21 | 94.7 | 38.4% | 89.8% | -662 |
| Kai Asakura 22-6 | $9,400 | 92.1 | 29.3% | 20 | 99.8 | 49.9% | 86.5% | -376 |
| Lawrence Lui 8-1 | $9,100 | 91.7 | 32.6% | 19 | 92.1 | 35.3% | 80.0% | -275 |
| Andre Lima 11-1 | $9,000 | 83.6 | 21.9% | 18 | 86.6 | 31.9% | 79.2% | -264 |
| Liu Ce 3-1 | $8,700 | 78.6 | 16.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 69.7% | -183 |
| Julia Polastri 14-6 | $8,900 | 75.3 | 19.5% | 17 | 77.4 | 27.5% | 76.7% | -225 |
| Su Sumudaerji 19-7 | $8,800 | 75.2 | 16.2% | 18 | 80.6 | 21.2% | 73.2% | -210 |
| Cam Nelson 7-1 | $7,900 | 51.3 | 10.6% | 14 | 52.0 | 6.9% | 39.7% | +134 |
| Xiong Jingnan 19-3 | $7,300 | 52.6 | 29.8% | 12 | 55.2 | 26.7% | 23.3% | +195 |
| Yadong Song 23-9-1 | $6,700 | 43.9 | 30.8% | 10 | 46.2 | 22.0% | 11.0% | +700 |
Full 26-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
The chalk is right, and that is the problem
Umar Nurmagomedov projects 116.0 on DraftKings, the highest figure on the card, built on 455 seconds of projected control time. That is more than double any other fighter here and the single largest number on the board, across five rounds. The model gives him 89.0% and the market implies 84.0%. He is correctly priced, correctly projected, and correctly favored.
He is also on 50.4% of DraftKings lineups and 52.7% of FanDuel lineups. More than half the field. Fading him is expensive and playing him is free. Neither buys you anything, which is what makes this slate awkward: the obvious play is genuinely the right play, so the edge has to come from the other five roster spots.
UFC Shanghai DFS picks: the core plays
Rei Tsuruya ($9,700 DK / 23 FD) is the best play on the card. Highest win probability on the slate at 90.1%, a 95.4 projection, 58.8% finish rate, 187 seconds of control, at 24.3% DraftKings ownership. His leverage figure of 3.93 leads everyone projecting above 70 points.
Liu Ce ($8,700 DK) has the best value figure on the main slate at 4.77, sitting at 69.7% to win and 16.5% ownership. He is also DraftKings only, so the FanDuel field cannot touch him at all.
Cam Nelson ($7,900 DK / 14 FD) is the cheapest real leverage at 4.83. A live underdog at 39.7% in a fight the market prices at +134 and -138, owned at 10.6% DK and 6.9% FD.
Showdown: the captain slot is where the edge is
The late showdown covers eight fights with one captain at 1.5x salary and points plus five flex. The cheapest legal roster costs $35,100 against a $50,000 cap, so salary is not the binding constraint. Captain selection is essentially the whole decision.
And captain ownership behaves almost independently of flex ownership:
| Fighter | CPT Salary | CPT Proj | CPT Own | FLEX Own | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | $13,500 | 173.9 | 16.8% | 39.5% | 22.7 |
| Rei Tsuruya | $14,100 | 143.1 | 6.8% | 31.5% | 24.7 |
| Bilal Hasan | $13,800 | 139.7 | 7.5% | 28.2% | 20.7 |
| Kai Asakura | $13,200 | 138.1 | 9.7% | 38.5% | 28.8 |
| Andre Lima | $12,600 | 125.4 | 7.5% | 33.1% | 25.6 |
| Liu Ce | $11,400 | 117.9 | 13.6% | 36.8% | 23.2 |
| Su Sumudaerji | $12,000 | 112.8 | 8.7% | 30.3% | 21.6 |
| Yan Xiaonan | $10,800 | 97.9 | 6.0% | 36.4% | 30.4 |
| Denise Gomes | $10,500 | 91.8 | 5.9% | 28.1% | 22.2 |
| Alex Perez | $9,600 | 73.4 | 4.5% | 23.2% | 18.7 |
Rei Tsuruya is the captain play. Second-highest captain projection on the slate at 143.1, on 6.8% captain ownership, while 31.5% of the field rosters him in a flex slot. The same fighter, nearly five times the exposure in one slot versus the other.
Yadong Song is the extreme version: 39.3% of flex lineups and 2.7% of captain lineups. If you want main event exposure without the crowd, that is where it is, though an 11.0% win probability is the reason nobody is there.
Full card breakdown
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Yadong Song
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov 20-1 | 89.0% | $9,500 / 116.0 | 22 / 113.3 | 50.4% | -525 |
| Yadong Song 23-9-1 | 11.0% | $6,700 / 43.9 | 10 / 46.2 | 30.8% | +700 |
The most owned fighter on either site and the reason this slate is hard. He projects 116.0 on DraftKings, the top figure on the card, with 455 seconds of projected control time, more than double anyone else here and the single biggest number on the board. Five rounds of that is why he prices at $9,500 and draws 50.4% DraftKings and 52.7% FanDuel ownership. Half the field is on him and the model does not disagree: 89.0% to win against a market implied 84.0%. The problem is not that he is wrong, it is that being right with him gains you nothing.
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan 19-5 | 61.1% | $8,500 / 65.3 | 16 / 66.0 | 20.0% | -152 |
| Denise Gomes 12-3 | 38.9% | $7,700 / 61.2 | 15 / 62.1 | 28.5% | +135 |
38.9% to win at 28.5% DraftKings ownership, but note the site split: only 17.2% on FanDuel. She has 173 seconds of projected control, third most on the card, which gives her a real floor even in defeat and explains why the DraftKings field is warmer on her. A reasonable contrarian piece on FanDuel specifically.
Kai Asakura vs Aori Aoriqileng
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Asakura 22-6 | 86.5% | $9,400 / 92.1 | 20 / 99.8 | 29.3% | -376 |
| Aori Aoriqileng 26-13 | 13.5% | $6,800 / 32.2 | 9 / 35.6 | 11.4% | +380 |
86.5% to win with a 65.0% finish rate, the highest on the card, and the second best FanDuel projection at 99.8. The catch is FanDuel ownership at 49.9%, nearly half the field, against 29.3% on DraftKings. Same fighter, very different exposure depending on where you are playing.
Su Sumudaerji vs Alex Perez
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Su Sumudaerji 19-7 | 73.2% | $8,800 / 75.2 | 18 / 80.6 | 16.2% | -210 |
| Alex Perez 26-10 | 26.8% | $7,400 / 49.0 | 12 / 50.0 | 21.2% | +180 |
73.2% to win at 16.2% ownership gives him a 4.63 leverage figure, third best on the card. He is $8,800 with a 42.0% finish rate against Perez, who the model gives 26.8% despite a 26-10 record. Perez has been around a long time and the field seems to be pricing reputation rather than the current version.
Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liu Ce 3-1 | 69.7% | $8,700 / 78.6 | n/a / n/a | 16.5% | -183 |
| Levi Rodrigues Jr. 5-1 | 30.3% | $7,500 / 38.4 | n/a / n/a | 6.4% | +163 |
The best value on the main slate at 4.77 points per ownership point. He is 69.7% to win at 16.5% DraftKings ownership, priced at $8,700 with a 60.9% finish rate. Note this fight is not on the FanDuel slate, so DraftKings players get a piece the FanDuel field cannot touch. Rodrigues Jr. steps in at 5-1 after Junior Tafa withdrew, which is part of why the market is thinner here than elsewhere.
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Hasan 9-0 | 89.8% | $9,600 / 93.1 | 21 / 94.7 | 35.1% | -662 |
| Nilson Rojas 9-0 | 10.2% | $6,600 / 27.5 | 8 / 26.4 | 25.8% | +650 |
9-0 and 89.8% to win, second highest on the slate, with a 58.8% finish rate and 147 seconds of control. At 35.1% DraftKings ownership he is chalk, but the profile is legitimate rather than reputational. Rojas is also unbeaten at 9-0 and the model still gives him only 10.2%.
Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Lima 11-1 | 79.2% | $9,000 / 83.6 | 18 / 86.6 | 21.9% | -264 |
| Namsrai Batbayar 10-1 | 20.8% | $7,200 / 37.6 | 11 / 37.8 | 12.5% | +230 |
79.2% to win with 129 seconds of control and a 48.4% finish rate, at 21.9% DraftKings ownership and a 3.82 leverage figure. He opens the prelims against Batbayar, who is 10-1 but unranked, and slate-opening fighters are consistently underowned relative to what they project.
Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rei Tsuruya 11-1 | 90.1% | $9,700 / 95.4 | 23 / 97.5 | 24.3% | -721 |
| Kevin Borjas 11-5 | 9.9% | $6,500 / 21.4 | 9 / 21.8 | 4.0% | +590 |
The best play on the card. 90.1% to win, the highest win probability on the slate, a 95.4 DraftKings projection, 58.8% finish rate and 187 seconds of projected control, at only 24.3% DraftKings and 24.5% FanDuel ownership. His leverage figure of 3.93 is the best of anyone projecting above 70 points. He is also the showdown story: 143.1 at captain on 6.8% captain ownership while 31.5% of the field rosters him in a flex slot.
Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Woodson 13-2-1 | 61.1% | $8,400 / 67.6 | 16 / 71.9 | 25.5% | -140 |
| Jack Jenkins 14-4 | 38.9% | $7,800 / 60.6 | 14 / 65.1 | 26.8% | +128 |
Sean Woodson is the model favorite at 61.1%.
Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiao Long 27-11 | 68.0% | $8,600 / 75.5 | 17 / 77.6 | 26.8% | -167 |
| Francesco Nuzzi 11-2 | 32.1% | $7,600 / 53.5 | 13 / 54.8 | 19.4% | +152 |
Xiao Long is the model favorite at 68.0%. 128 seconds of projected control time supports the floor.
Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Lui 8-1 | 80.0% | $9,100 / 91.7 | 19 / 92.1 | 32.6% | -275 |
| Hector Santiago 6-1 | 20.0% | $7,100 / 39.2 | 11 / 40.2 | 16.5% | +240 |
80.0% to win at $9,100 with 204 seconds of projected control, second only to Nurmagomedov. That control number makes him a DraftKings piece specifically, since the site pays 0.03 per second and FanDuel pays nothing for it. Ownership is 32.6% DK and 35.3% FD.
Julia Polastri vs Xiong Jingnan
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Polastri 14-6 | 76.7% | $8,900 / 75.3 | 17 / 77.4 | 19.5% | -225 |
| Xiong Jingnan 19-3 | 23.3% | $7,300 / 52.6 | 12 / 55.2 | 29.8% | +195 |
76.7% to win at 19.5% ownership, a 3.85 leverage figure, and 110 seconds of projected control. The model likes her considerably more than the market does, which has her at only -225. Xiong Jingnan is the more recognisable name at 19-3 and draws 29.8% ownership on a 23.3% win probability, which is the inverse of what it should be.
Ding Meng vs Cam Nelson
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ding Meng 35-10 | 60.3% | $8,300 / 71.0 | 15 / 73.5 | 29.1% | -138 |
| Cam Nelson 7-1 | 39.7% | $7,900 / 51.3 | 14 / 52.0 | 10.6% | +134 |
The cheapest genuine leverage on the board at 4.83. He is a live underdog at 39.7% against Ding Meng’s 60.3%, and the market has it closer still at +134 and -138. Ownership is 10.6% DraftKings and just 6.9% FanDuel. At $7,900 he is not a punt, he is a coin flip nobody is playing.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Lui | $9,100 | 91.7 | 80.0% | 32.6% |
| Xiao Long | $8,600 | 75.5 | 68.0% | 26.8% |
| Julia Polastri | $8,900 | 75.3 | 76.7% | 19.5% |
| Ding Meng | $8,300 | 71.0 | 60.3% | 29.1% |
| Sean Woodson | $8,400 | 67.6 | 61.1% | 25.5% |
| Yadong Song | $6,700 | 43.9 | 11.0% | 30.8% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 425.0 | 164.3% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Lima | $9,000 | 83.6 | 79.2% | 21.9% |
| Liu Ce | $8,700 | 78.6 | 69.7% | 16.5% |
| Julia Polastri | $8,900 | 75.3 | 76.7% | 19.5% |
| Su Sumudaerji | $8,800 | 75.2 | 73.2% | 16.2% |
| Cam Nelson | $7,900 | 51.3 | 39.7% | 10.6% |
| Kevin Borjas | $6,500 | 21.4 | 9.9% | 4.0% |
| Totals | $49,800 | 385.3 | 88.8% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Asakura | $9,400 | 92.1 | 86.5% | 29.3% |
| Andre Lima | $9,000 | 83.6 | 79.2% | 21.9% |
| Liu Ce | $8,700 | 78.6 | 69.7% | 16.5% |
| Denise Gomes | $7,700 | 61.2 | 38.9% | 28.5% |
| Jack Jenkins | $7,800 | 60.6 | 38.9% | 26.8% |
| Alex Perez | $7,400 | 49.0 | 26.8% | 21.2% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 425.0 | 144.3% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 22 | 113.3 | 89.0% | 52.7% |
| Kai Asakura | 20 | 99.8 | 86.5% | 49.9% |
| Bilal Hasan | 21 | 94.7 | 89.8% | 38.4% |
| Lawrence Lui | 19 | 92.1 | 80.0% | 35.3% |
| Andre Lima | 18 | 86.6 | 79.2% | 31.9% |
| Totals | 100 units | 486.4 | 208.2% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 22 | 113.3 | 89.0% | 52.7% |
| Lawrence Lui | 19 | 92.1 | 80.0% | 35.3% |
| Su Sumudaerji | 18 | 80.6 | 73.2% | 21.2% |
| Cam Nelson | 14 | 52.0 | 39.7% | 6.9% |
| Kevin Borjas | 9 | 21.8 | 9.9% | 1.1% |
| Totals | 82 units | 359.7 | 117.2% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Yadong Song draws 30.8% DraftKings ownership on an 11.0% win probability, a 1.42 leverage figure and a +700 market price. He is the recognisable half of the main event and the field is buying the name.
Xiong Jingnan is the worst leverage figure on the board at 1.77: 29.8% ownership on 23.3% to win, against +195. Julia Polastri on the other side is 76.7% to win at 19.5% ownership, which is the same fight with the numbers the right way round.
Nilson Rojas at 25.8% ownership on a 10.2% win probability produces a 1.07 leverage figure, the worst on the slate. Both men are 9-0, which is presumably what the field sees, but the model and the market both give Hasan the fight comfortably.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again. The calibration against the market returns an R squared of 0.98 with a slope above one across the priced fights, which means the model is tracking the market line and stretching it at the extremes rather than disagreeing with it. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC Shanghai?
Rei Tsuruya. Highest win probability on the card at 90.1%, a 95.4 DraftKings projection, and 24.3% ownership.
Should you play Umar Nurmagomedov?
He is the top projection at 116.0 with 455 seconds of control, and he is on more than half of all lineups. Playing him is fine, it just is not an edge.
Who is the best showdown captain?
Rei Tsuruya at 143.1 projected on 6.8% captain ownership, against 31.5% flex ownership.
What time does the card lock?
3:00 AM ET on Saturday, August 29, 2026.
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