A 72 man field, no cut, and a golf course built almost entirely out of par 4s. Yokohama Country Club has thirteen of them, the most of any venue we have covered this season, against only three par 3s and two par 5s.
Those par 4s are the whole test. They run from 337 and 357 yards, short enough to leave a wedge, out to 510, 508 and 482 that play as three shot holes for most of the field, with four of them at 475 or longer. The same club is almost never the right answer twice. Only two par 5s means birdie chances are scarce and everyone gets the same two, and the three par 3s are oddly spread at 168, 182 and then 237. Zoysia tee to green is a full surface change from the bentgrass of the last two weeks, and the back nine plays 256 yards longer than the front.
With no cut, make cut probability is a flat 100 percent and carries no information, so our model drops it and grades every golfer against what his own salary implies instead.
Below is the full FTA Sims breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel: golfer grades built on a price residual model, finish probabilities, why the most owned golfer on the board is also the best play, where the only real leverage sits, and four sample builds.
Baycurrent Classic DFS Picks and Lineups: 2026
A 72 man field, no cut, and a golf course built almost entirely out of par 4s. Yokohama Country Club has thirteen of them, the most of any venue we have covered this season, against only three par 3s and two par 5s. Everything that mattered at Black Desert last week, where four short par 3s and two drivable par 4s created variance, is gone.
The Course: Yokohama Country Club
Thirteen par 4s is the whole story. They run from 337 and 357 yards, short enough to leave a wedge, all the way out to 510, 508 and 482, which play as three shot holes for most of the field. Four of them sit at 475 or longer. That spread means the same club is almost never the right answer twice, and it puts a premium on iron play from a wide range of distances rather than on any single skill.
Only two par 5s, at 536 and 529, and both are reachable, so the birdie opportunities are scarce and everyone gets the same two. The three par 3s are oddly spread: 168, 182, then the 16th at 237, nearly seventy yards longer than the shortest. Zoysia tee to green, which is a full surface change from the bentgrass of the last two weeks, and the back nine plays 256 yards longer than the front. The course record is 260, so it does give up low scores when the conditions allow.
How We Graded This Week
No cut, so make cut probability is a flat 100 percent across the field and carries no information. Our model drops it automatically and grades on the rest: we fit projection, ceiling, floor and projected ownership against salary across the field, then measure each golfer against what his own price implies. That keeps the grade tier neutral in a 72 man field where six roster spots put baseline ownership above eight percent and everybody is at least somewhat owned.
EAT: What The Model Is Paying For
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own | Own for price | Pts vs price | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 11,000 | 93.8 | 25.0% | 16.9% | +5.53 | 65.1% |
| Kris Ventura | 6,800 | 76.7 | 15.1% | 5.8% | +4.90 | 30.4% |
| Andrew Putnam | 6,200 | 71.1 | 3.0% | 3.2% | +4.58 | 14.0% |
| Matthew McCarty | 6,600 | 74.5 | 7.8% | 4.9% | +4.38 | 22.3% |
| Lee Hodges | 6,700 | 75.2 | 11.0% | 5.4% | +4.27 | 26.3% |
| Mac Meissner | 6,900 | 76.5 | 12.1% | 6.2% | +3.90 | 28.3% |
| Denny McCarthy | 6,500 | 73.0 | 4.3% | 4.5% | +3.72 | 19.9% |
| Pierceson Coody | 6,800 | 75.4 | 9.6% | 5.8% | +3.59 | 24.9% |
| John Parry | 6,700 | 74.3 | 6.7% | 5.4% | +3.39 | 24.1% |
Xander Schauffele is the most owned golfer on the board and the single best play on it. At 11,000 he is 25.0 percent owned against the 16.9 percent a golfer at that price normally draws, and he still projects +5.53 points above his own price curve with a ceiling +6.05 above it and a 65.1 percent top 20 probability, the best in the field. On FanDuel he is 35.6 percent owned. That is uncomfortable exposure and it is correct exposure.
Kris Ventura at 6,800 is the other side of the same coin. He is 15.1 percent owned against a 5.8 percent fit, nearly ten points of ownership beyond what his salary implies, and he backs it with +4.90 points against that price and the best ceiling residual in the field. The crowd found him and the crowd is right.
FADE: Owned Without The Edge Behind It
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own | Own for price | Pts vs price | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick McNealy | 8,700 | 84.5 | 20.5% | 12.3% | +0.76 | 46.4% |
| Doug Ghim | 9,200 | 86.0 | 21.2% | 13.6% | +0.38 | 52.2% |
| Keegan Bradley | 8,000 | 81.2 | 16.5% | 10.2% | +0.98 | 38.9% |
| Kevin Yu | 8,000 | 80.1 | 14.0% | 10.2% | -0.11 | 38.5% |
| Johnny Keefer | 7,900 | 79.9 | 12.6% | 9.9% | +0.29 | 37.6% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 7,600 | 78.1 | 11.4% | 8.8% | +0.33 | 34.7% |
| Ryan Gerard | 9,300 | 85.7 | 16.1% | 13.9% | -0.28 | 51.3% |
Maverick McNealy and Doug Ghim are the two cleanest fades. McNealy is 20.5 percent owned against a 12.3 percent fit while projecting only +0.76 points above his price, and Ghim is 21.2 against 13.6 for +0.38. Neither is a bad golfer. Both are carrying heavy ownership for an edge close to zero, which is the definition of paying retail. Ghim is worse on FanDuel, where he draws 25.9 percent against a 13.2 percent fit, the largest overlay on either board.
Where The Leverage Actually Is
Hideki Matsuyama is underowned on both sites and he is the only name near the top of the board that is. He is 10.9 percent owned on DraftKings against a 15.7 percent fit and 16.2 against 21.7 on FanDuel, the biggest underlay on that site. His projection sits essentially on his price at -0.54, so this is not a case of the model loving him. It is a case of the field being lighter on him than his salary implies, in a 72 man no cut event where there is very little else to separate you.
Jordan Spieth is the trap version of the same shape. He is 6.2 percent owned against a 11.2 percent fit, which reads identically to Matsuyama on the ownership column alone. The difference is the projection: -4.09 points against his price, one of the weakest marks in the field. Low ownership on a golfer the model dislikes is not leverage, it is the field and the model agreeing with each other.
Projected ownership correlates with our projections at 0.53 on DraftKings and 0.61 on FanDuel, which sits between the playoff weeks, where there was nothing to attack, and a full field event, where there is plenty.
PIVOT: Ceiling The Field Has Not Priced
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own | Own for price | Pts vs price | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Fisk | 7,300 | 76.7 | 8.7% | 7.7% | +1.06 | 31.5% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 6,500 | 70.3 | 4.2% | 4.5% | +1.11 | 17.6% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 6,900 | 73.4 | 5.0% | 6.2% | +0.79 | 23.8% |
| Kevin Roy | 7,100 | 74.7 | 6.3% | 7.0% | +0.56 | 26.0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 10,200 | 87.4 | 10.9% | 15.7% | -0.54 | 53.4% |
Lineups
Cash maximises projection at the cap. Tournament builds run the same solver under a cumulative ownership ceiling, 50 percent on DraftKings and 75 percent on FanDuel, set by buying as much differentiation as three percent of projection can pay for. The DraftKings pair is worth comparing side by side: the cash build sits at 106.4 percent cumulative ownership and the tournament build at 49.7, and they share no golfers at all. That is a genuinely different team, not a one player swap.
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 11,000 | 93.8 | 25.0% |
| Doug Ghim | 9,200 | 86.0 | 21.2% |
| Maverick McNealy | 8,700 | 84.5 | 20.5% |
| Zachary Bauchou | 7,400 | 78.1 | 12.5% |
| Mac Meissner | 6,900 | 76.5 | 12.1% |
| Kris Ventura | 6,800 | 76.7 | 15.1% |
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | 10,400 | 89.1 | 14.0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 10,200 | 87.4 | 10.9% |
| Rickie Fowler | 8,400 | 79.8 | 6.8% |
| Max Homa | 7,700 | 77.7 | 5.6% |
| Nick Taylor | 6,800 | 75.1 | 8.1% |
| Denny McCarthy | 6,500 | 73.0 | 4.3% |
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 13,200 | 98.5 | 35.6% |
| Justin Thomas | 11,200 | 89.8 | 20.0% |
| Maverick McNealy | 10,600 | 87.5 | 16.9% |
| Doug Ghim | 10,300 | 89.3 | 25.9% |
| Zachary Bauchou | 7,800 | 79.8 | 10.8% |
| Kris Ventura | 6,800 | 78.0 | 10.8% |
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | 12,600 | 93.2 | 21.5% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 12,400 | 91.0 | 16.2% |
| Sungjae Im | 10,100 | 84.8 | 12.6% |
| Keegan Bradley | 9,600 | 83.6 | 11.5% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 8,300 | 78.6 | 6.6% |
| Lee Hodges | 7,000 | 76.1 | 6.4% |
How To Play It
- No cut, so floor is worth less than usual. Every golfer you roster plays four rounds whatever happens Thursday.
- Thirteen par 4s across a 173 yard range rewards iron play from everywhere, not distance and not any one specialty.
- Only two par 5s means scarce birdie holes. Bogey avoidance matters more here than at a course handing out four chances.
- The wave filter is not useful this week. This is a two tee start in threesomes with every group away before 11am local, so there is no morning and afternoon split to leverage.
- Build the two sites separately. Ghim is the biggest overlay on FanDuel and Matsuyama the biggest underlay, and neither gap is as wide on DraftKings.
Projections and projected ownership are FTA projections. Ownership moves all week, so treat the ownership columns as a read on the crowd at the time of writing.