These are FTA’s Noche UFC DFS picks for Saturday’s card at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale. Alexa Grasso meets Manon Fiorot in a five-round flyweight main event on a 13-fight board that locks at 2:00 PM ET. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, showdown captain leverage, and cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva 16-2 | $9,300 | 97.5 | 37.2% | 21 | 106.1 | 42.6% | 86.5% | -382 |
| Tommy Gantt 20-6 | $9,400 | 96.0 | 37.5% | 20 | 102.9 | 49.9% | 86.6% | -382 |
| Yousri Belgaroui 12-3 | $9,700 | 91.4 | 33.0% | 22 | 101.5 | 41.3% | 90.5% | -614 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes 17-5 | $9,500 | 87.1 | 31.9% | 20 | 96.4 | 39.2% | 88.7% | -526 |
| David Martinez 12-1 | $9,200 | 79.7 | 23.8% | 19 | 84.3 | 27.8% | 85.7% | -431 |
| Manon Fiorot 12-2 | $8,900 | 75.6 | 21.8% | 18 | 78.4 | 25.2% | 77.1% | -264 |
| Regina Tarin 8-2 | $9,100 | 75.2 | 18.6% | 19 | 81.1 | 23.2% | 80.6% | -275 |
| Joseph Morales 12-3 | $8,300 | 51.9 | 8.3% | 15 | 51.4 | 3.8% | 53.1% | -113 |
| Brandon Moreno 23-8-2 | $7,900 | 54.0 | 22.6% | 15 | 52.9 | 11.7% | 46.9% | +108 |
| Tim Elliott 21-14 | $7,400 | 49.1 | 20.6% | 13 | 50.1 | 11.7% | 27.2% | +194 |
| Alexa Grasso 17-4-1 | $7,300 | 39.8 | 19.1% | 12 | 43.6 | 14.2% | 22.9% | +230 |
| Muslim Salikhov 21-5 | $6,700 | 25.5 | 25.3% | 9 | 28.5 | 19.8% | 11.3% | +425 |
Full 26-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
The main event is not close
Manon Fiorot is 77.1% to win. Alexa Grasso is 22.9%. The market agrees, pricing Fiorot at -264 and Grasso at +230. Yet Grasso draws 19.1% of DraftKings lineups against Fiorot’s 21.8%, which is close to even exposure on a fight neither the model nor the books consider competitive.
Grasso projects 39.8 DraftKings points, the lowest figure any main eventer has posted on a card we have covered. Her finish rate is 9.0% and she averages 36 seconds of projected control, so even the outcomes where she wins do not produce a score that wins you anything.
Fiorot at $8,900 with 130 seconds of projected control and a 3.47 leverage figure is simply the better side of the same fight, at almost the same ownership.
Noche UFC DFS picks: the core plays
Joseph Morales ($8,300 DK / 15 FD) is the best leverage on the card at 6.28. The market calls his fight with Brandon Moreno a coin flip at -113 and +108, the model gives Morales 53.1%, and he draws 8.3% DraftKings and 3.8% FanDuel ownership. Moreno is the former champion and the field is on him at 22.6%. This is the rare spot where being contrarian costs nothing in expectation.
Regina Tarin ($9,100 DK / 19 FD) is 80.6% to win at 18.6% ownership, a 4.05 figure, in a fight the market has at -275.
David Martinez ($9,200 DK / 19 FD) is 85.7% at 23.8% ownership with 89 seconds of control, the best win-probability-to-ownership combination on the main card.
Showdown: the widest captain gap yet
The late showdown covers eight fights, one captain at 1.5x salary and points plus five flex, under a $50,000 cap. The cheapest legal roster costs $34,400, so captain selection is effectively the entire decision.
| Fighter | CPT Salary | CPT Proj | CPT Own | FLEX Own | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | $13,800 | 146.2 | 9.8% | 33.3% | 23.5 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | $14,400 | 130.7 | 9.9% | 38.5% | 28.6 |
| David Martinez | $13,500 | 119.6 | 7.3% | 27.8% | 20.5 |
| Manon Fiorot | $12,900 | 113.4 | 6.3% | 25.7% | 19.4 |
| Tommy McMillen | $11,700 | 111.1 | 13.1% | 34.4% | 21.3 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | $12,300 | 103.7 | 4.1% | 58.5% | 54.4 |
| Edgar Chairez | $12,600 | 101.7 | 7.2% | 37.9% | 30.7 |
| Brandon Moreno | $10,500 | 81.1 | 7.2% | 25.7% | 18.5 |
| Joseph Morales | $10,800 | 77.8 | 5.3% | 24.9% | 19.6 |
| Marwan Rahiki | $9,900 | 76.4 | 8.6% | 27.3% | 18.7 |
Waldo Cortes Acosta is the most extreme split we have recorded. He appears in 58.5% of flex lineups and 4.1% of captain lineups, a 54.4 point swing, while projecting 103.7 at captain. Nearly three in five entries have him, and one in twenty-four have him where the points are multiplied.
Edgar Chairez is the next widest at 37.9% flex against 7.2% captain. Jean Silva holds the top captain projection at 146.2 on 9.8% ownership.
Full card breakdown
Alexa Grasso vs Manon Fiorot
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso 17-4-1 | 22.9% | $7,300 / 39.8 | 12 / 43.6 | 19.1% | +230 |
| Manon Fiorot 12-2 | 77.1% | $8,900 / 75.6 | 18 / 78.4 | 21.8% | -264 |
The main event is not close, and the field has not fully priced that. Fiorot is 77.1% to win against Grasso’s 22.9%, with 130 seconds of projected control, and she is the better play at $8,900 and 21.8% ownership against Grasso’s $7,300 and 19.1%. A 3.47 leverage figure on a main card favorite is unusual. Note the low finish rate at 20.0%: this is an accumulation profile across five rounds rather than a fighter hunting a stoppage.
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno 23-8-2 | 46.9% | $7,900 / 54.0 | 15 / 52.9 | 22.6% | +108 |
| Joseph Morales 12-3 | 53.1% | $8,300 / 51.9 | 15 / 51.4 | 8.3% | -113 |
The best leverage on the card at 6.28 and the most interesting spot on the slate. The market prices this fight at -113 and -108, a genuine coin flip, and the model gives Morales 53.1% against Brandon Moreno’s 46.9%. Morales draws 8.3% DraftKings and just 3.8% FanDuel ownership, because the field is on the former champion. He projects 51.9 with 90 seconds of control, so he is not a dart, he is the marginally correct side of a pick’em nobody is playing.
Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva 16-2 | 86.5% | $9,300 / 97.5 | 21 / 106.1 | 37.2% | -382 |
| Jose Delgado 12-1 | 13.5% | $6,900 / 37.5 | 11 / 41.8 | 31.5% | +340 |
Top DraftKings projection on the card at 97.5 with a 68.4% finish rate and 124 seconds of control, and the second highest on FanDuel at 106.1. He is 86.5% to win against a market implying 79.3%. Ownership is heavy at 37.2% DK and 42.6% FD, so you are paying for it, but this is the most complete profile on the slate.
Curtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Blaydes 19-5 | 28.3% | $7,500 / 44.0 | 12 / 46.4 | 13.0% | +165 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta 15-2 | 71.7% | $8,700 / 69.1 | 18 / 74.4 | 27.7% | -183 |
19-5 and a 28.3% underdog at $7,500, projecting 44.0 with 105 seconds of projected control and a 3.39 leverage figure at 13.0% ownership. The control number is what makes him usable rather than dead weight, since it banks DraftKings points even in a loss. Cortes Acosta is the model favorite at 71.7%.
David Martinez vs Dan Ige
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Martinez 12-1 | 85.7% | $9,200 / 79.7 | 19 / 84.3 | 23.8% | -431 |
| Dan Ige 19-9 | 14.3% | $7,000 / 27.4 | 10 / 30.4 | 18.6% | +440 |
85.7% to win with 89 seconds of control and a 3.34 leverage figure at 23.8% ownership. His 33.1% finish rate is modest, so the projection is built on volume rather than a stoppage, but he is the best combination of win probability and price on the main card. Ige at 19-9 is 14.3% to win against a market price of +440.
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes 17-5 | 88.7% | $9,500 / 87.1 | 20 / 96.4 | 31.9% | -526 |
| Muslim Salikhov 21-5 | 11.3% | $6,700 / 25.5 | 9 / 28.5 | 25.3% | +425 |
88.7% to win with a 65.1% projected finish rate, the second highest on the card, at $9,500. Ownership is heavy at 31.9% DraftKings and 39.2% FanDuel, so this is a play you make for the floor rather than the leverage. Salikhov on the other side is the worst leverage figure on the slate.
Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott 21-14 | 27.2% | $7,400 / 49.1 | 13 / 50.1 | 20.6% | +194 |
| Edgar Chairez 12-6 | 72.8% | $8,800 / 67.8 | 17 / 71.7 | 21.6% | -200 |
Edgar Chairez is the model favorite at 72.8%, but the interesting fighter here is Elliott. He projects 170 seconds of control, the most on the entire card, at $7,400 and 20.6% ownership. He is only 27.2% to win, so this is not a play on the outcome. It is a play on the floor: control time pays on DraftKings whether he wins or not, and nobody else on the slate generates as much of it.
Rafa Garcia vs Rong Rongzhu
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Garcia 17-5 | 34.9% | $7,700 / 52.6 | 13 / 57.4 | 24.8% | +150 |
| Rong Rongzhu 25-7 | 65.1% | $8,500 / 67.5 | 17 / 73.5 | 19.6% | -155 |
Rong Rongzhu is the model favorite at 65.1% and draws only 19.6% DraftKings ownership against Garcia’s 24.8%, which is the wrong way round for a fighter the market has at -155. 63 seconds of projected control supports the floor.
Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drakkar Klose 16-3 | 13.4% | $6,800 / 29.8 | 9 / 32.0 | 10.4% | +340 |
| Tommy Gantt 20-6 | 86.6% | $9,400 / 96.0 | 20 / 102.9 | 37.5% | -382 |
96.0 DraftKings and 102.9 FanDuel on an 86.6% win probability, with 140 seconds of projected control, second most on the card. The issue is FanDuel ownership at 49.9%, essentially half the field, against 37.5% on DraftKings. Same fighter, materially different exposure depending on where you play.
JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich 15-8 | 19.4% | $7,100 / 35.8 | 11 / 39.9 | 18.9% | +240 |
| Regina Tarin 8-2 | 80.6% | $9,100 / 75.2 | 19 / 81.1 | 18.6% | -275 |
A 4.05 leverage figure, 80.6% to win, projecting 75.2 with 65 seconds of control, at only 18.6% DraftKings and 23.2% FanDuel ownership. The market has her at -275, so this is not a fight it considers close. Aldrich is 15-8 and the recognisable name, which is presumably where the ownership is going.
Marwan Rahiki vs Tommy McMillen
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marwan Rahiki 9-1 | 36.5% | $7,600 / 50.9 | 14 / 57.8 | 19.0% | +140 |
| Tommy McMillen 8-2 | 63.5% | $8,600 / 74.0 | 16 / 82.6 | 33.0% | -154 |
Worth a caution. He projects 74.0 on a 63.5% win probability, which is reasonable, but FanDuel ownership is 55.1%, more than half the field, against 33.0% on DraftKings. The market has this fight at only -154. That combination, a modest favorite with majority ownership on one site, is where tournaments are lost rather than won.
Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yousri Belgaroui 12-3 | 90.5% | $9,700 / 91.4 | 22 / 101.5 | 33.0% | -614 |
| Djorden Santos 9-1 | 9.5% | $6,500 / 27.6 | 8 / 30.5 | 15.3% | +700 |
The highest win probability on the slate at 90.5% and a 91.4 projection at $9,700. He is the most expensive fighter available and draws 33.0% DraftKings ownership. A 59.3% finish rate supports the number, though only 53 seconds of projected control means the points come from striking rather than grappling.
Jessie Rosas vs Sean King III
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Rosas 9-2 | 28.3% | $7,800 / 38.8 | 14 / 37.9 | 9.5% | +185 |
| Sean King III 8-1 | 71.7% | $8,400 / 72.7 | 16 / 72.8 | 24.9% | -195 |
Sean King III is the model favorite at 71.7%, with 123 seconds of projected control, third most on the card. That control figure is what carries the 72.7 projection at only $8,400.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | $9,300 | 97.5 | 86.5% | 37.2% |
| Tommy McMillen | $8,600 | 74.0 | 63.5% | 33.0% |
| Sean King III | $8,400 | 72.7 | 71.7% | 24.9% |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | $8,700 | 69.1 | 71.7% | 27.7% |
| Rong Rongzhu | $8,500 | 67.5 | 65.1% | 19.6% |
| Djorden Santos | $6,500 | 27.6 | 9.5% | 15.3% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 408.4 | 157.7% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point, restricted to fighters at or above the median projection so the build cannot fill up on cheap bodies nobody rosters.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manon Fiorot | $8,900 | 75.6 | 77.1% | 21.8% |
| Regina Tarin | $9,100 | 75.2 | 80.6% | 18.6% |
| Tommy McMillen | $8,600 | 74.0 | 63.5% | 33.0% |
| Sean King III | $8,400 | 72.7 | 71.7% | 24.9% |
| Rong Rongzhu | $8,500 | 67.5 | 65.1% | 19.6% |
| Djorden Santos | $6,500 | 27.6 | 9.5% | 15.3% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 392.7 | 133.2% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yousri Belgaroui | $9,700 | 91.4 | 90.5% | 33.0% |
| Manon Fiorot | $8,900 | 75.6 | 77.1% | 21.8% |
| Sean King III | $8,400 | 72.7 | 71.7% | 24.9% |
| Rong Rongzhu | $8,500 | 67.5 | 65.1% | 19.6% |
| Marwan Rahiki | $7,600 | 50.9 | 36.5% | 19.0% |
| Jose Delgado | $6,900 | 37.5 | 13.5% | 31.5% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 395.7 | 149.8% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | 21 | 106.1 | 86.5% | 42.6% |
| Tommy Gantt | 20 | 102.9 | 86.6% | 49.9% |
| Yousri Belgaroui | 22 | 101.5 | 90.5% | 41.3% |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 | 96.4 | 88.7% | 39.2% |
| Tommy McMillen | 16 | 82.6 | 63.5% | 55.1% |
| Totals | 99 units | 489.4 | 228.0% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Silva | 21 | 106.1 | 86.5% | 42.6% |
| Yousri Belgaroui | 22 | 101.5 | 90.5% | 41.3% |
| David Martinez | 19 | 84.3 | 85.7% | 27.8% |
| Regina Tarin | 19 | 81.1 | 80.6% | 23.2% |
| Sean King III | 16 | 72.8 | 71.7% | 17.7% |
| Totals | 97 units | 445.6 | 152.6% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Muslim Salikhov carries the worst leverage figure on the slate at 1.01: 25.3% DraftKings ownership on an 11.3% win probability against a +425 price. At $6,700 he is salary relief, but a 7.2% finish rate and 56 seconds of control mean he banks almost nothing even in defeat.
Jose Delgado is close behind at 1.19, drawing 31.5% ownership on 13.5% to win. He is the opponent in the card’s most watchable fight and the field is buying the matchup.
Tommy McMillen is the FanDuel-specific problem: 55.1% ownership there against 33.0% on DraftKings, for a fighter the market prices at only -154.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again. The calibration returns an R squared of 0.988 with a slope of 1.349 across all 13 fights. The model tracks the market line and stretches it at the extremes rather than disagreeing with it. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for Noche UFC?
Joseph Morales at 6.28 points per ownership point, 53.1% to win in a coin flip, at 8.3% DraftKings and 3.8% FanDuel ownership.
Should you play Alexa Grasso?
The model gives her 22.9% and she projects 39.8, the lowest of any main eventer we have covered. Fiorot is the better side of the same fight at similar ownership.
Who is the best showdown captain?
Waldo Cortes Acosta has the widest gap at 58.5% flex against 4.1% captain. Jean Silva has the top captain projection at 146.2.
What time does the card lock?
2:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026.
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