UFC Abu Dhabi DFS overview
Welcome to FTA’s UFC Abu Dhabi DFS picks, our complete DraftKings and FanDuel breakdown for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on July 25, 2026 from Etihad Arena. This is a 13-fight main slate loaded with heavy favorites, which puts a premium on nailing your anchors, because the chalk is priced up and the value is thin. The sharpest builds this week lock in the elite favorites at the top and get differentiated through ownership rather than reaching for dogs.
The model loves three fighters almost equally at the top. Islam Dulatov leads the slate at 107.2 projected points with a 94 percent win probability, a massive favorite with a strong grappling and finishing floor. Champion Magomed Ankalaev is right behind at 107.1 points and carries the card-high 194-point ceiling on a 197-second projected control time. Magomed Tuchalov rounds out the trio at 101.7 points and 91 percent win. For the full grid, see our UFC DFS projections and simulation models, updated for every card.
Because the top of the board is so strong, the leverage this week comes from ownership, not from finding live dogs. The field will pile onto Axel Sola (37 percent) and Nurullo Aliev (34 percent), two favorites whose ownership outpaces their win probability. All numbers in this UFC Abu Dhabi DFS picks guide come from the DraftKings and FanDuel projection files, with fighter stats sourced from UFCStats and scoring per the official DraftKings MMA rules.
Main event: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (Light Heavyweight)
Ankalaev DFS case: The light heavyweight champion is a premium cash and GPP anchor. He projects for 107.1 points at 93 percent win, and crucially he carries the highest ceiling on the entire card at 194 DK points thanks to a projected 197 seconds of control time and elite finishing ability in a five-round main event. His floor and ceiling are both elite, and at 31 percent ownership he is popular but far from over-owned for a fighter this dominant. He is a strong play in every format.
Guskov DFS case: Guskov has knockout power and a puncher’s chance, which is the entire case. The model gives him just 7 percent win with a 25.9 projection and a very low floor. He is a large-field GPP dart only, and even then a thin one. In a five-round fight against a dominant wrestler, his path to a usable score is narrow. Fade in cash and treat him as a pure tournament flier.
Co-main: Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov (Flyweight)
This is a true pick-em, and the model treats it as a 50/50. Both fighters project in the same range on high-volume striking, so the fantasy appeal is real, but so is the risk. Temirov carries the higher ownership (31 percent) despite the coin-flip odds, which makes Erceg the leverage side if you want exposure to this fight. In cash, this is a spot to avoid entirely given the top-of-board studs. In GPP, pick one side, ideally the lower-owned Erceg, rather than paying up for a fight the model cannot separate.
UFC Abu Dhabi main card breakdowns
Islam Dulatov is the highest-projected fighter on the slate and the safest floor at 94 percent win. A roughly -1000 favorite with strong finishing equity, he tops the board while sitting at a very reasonable 26 percent ownership for a play this safe. He is the number-one cash anchor and belongs in most GPP builds too. Turman is a heavy dog with a 18.2 projection and no realistic path, a clear fade.
The undefeated prospect Magomed Tuchalov is the third elite anchor, projecting 101.7 points at 91 percent win with the best finishing rate of the top trio (a 0.68 KO/TKO projection). At 25 percent ownership he is a strong cash-and-GPP play, and pairing him with Dulatov and Ankalaev gives you a monster high-floor core. Ribeiro is a heavy dog to avoid.
Rizvan Kuniev is an excellent value at $9,000 with an 86 percent win projection and a strong 82.1 median. Heavyweight finishing equity gives him a high ceiling to go with the floor, and he lets you fit multiple studs. Fortune is a live-ish heavyweight dog only in the sense that any heavyweight can land a punch, but at 14 percent win he is a deep GPP dart at best.
Value plays and prelim options
A strong favorite with an 88.0 projection and a 117-second control projection. 86 percent win at 24 percent ownership makes him a reliable anchor that is slightly underowned relative to his floor. Excellent cash play.
Heavy favorite over the aging Ponzinibbio with an 85 percent win and volume-striking upside (0.44 KO projection). At 21 percent ownership he is one of the more underowned premium favorites on the board. Strong cash and GPP.
A 77 percent favorite with a 150-second control projection and wrestling-based floor, at only 21 percent ownership. A nice underowned mid-tier option to differentiate from the chalkier Sola and Aliev.
Fighters to fade
FTA recommended lineup builds
UFC Abu Dhabi DFS picks: cash and GPP strategy
This is a favorite-heavy slate, so roster construction is about fitting as many of the elite anchors as you can. The top trio of Dulatov, Ankalaev, and Tuchalov all project above 100 points with 91 percent win or better, which is rare. The challenge is salary: you cannot fit all three plus other studs without paying down somewhere, so the build becomes about which value favorites you trust.
In cash, anchor with two of the top three, add value favorites like Kuniev, Hussein, and Patterson, and fill the last spot with the best remaining favorite you can afford. Every spot should be a fighter the model likes at 74 percent win or better. Avoid the coin-flip co-main entirely.
In GPP, the leverage is in ownership, not in dogs. The field will be heavy on Sola (37 percent) and Aliev (34 percent). Being underweight there and pivoting to Vagaev, Patterson, or the lower-owned Erceg side of the co-main is how you differentiate while keeping a strong projected score. For the full members breakdown, grab our MMA DFS cheat sheet before lock.