These are FTA’s UFC Edmonton DFS picks for Saturday’s card at Rogers Place. Joaquin Buckley meets Mike Malott over five rounds at welterweight on a 13-fight board that locks at 5:00 PM ET on both sites. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, showdown captain leverage, and cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Galanti 8-1 |
$9,500 | 90.6 | 33.0% | 23 | 93.4 | 29.3% | 86.2% | -649 |
| Mandel Nallo 14-4 |
$9,100 | 85.3 | 43.1% | 20 | 93.3 | 63.9% | 71.6% | -275 |
| Cristian Perez 15-2 |
$9,200 | 83.3 | 34.7% | 21 | 87.8 | 51.8% | 76.6% | -341 |
| Melissa Croden 8-3 |
$8,900 | 77.9 | 32.2% | 18 | 80.9 | 47.2% | 74.6% | -300 |
| Kyle Daukaus 17-5 |
$8,700 | 76.2 | 37.5% | 17 | 81.8 | 32.5% | 65.1% | -185 |
| Erin Blanchfield 14-2 |
$9,300 | 71.4 | 18.6% | 22 | 74.8 | 29.1% | 74.9% | -333 |
| Mike Malott 14-2-1 |
$8,400 | 71.1 | 36.5% | 16 | 72.0 | 43.4% | 53.9% | -125 |
| Katlyn Cerminara 18-6 |
$9,000 | 61.8 | 15.9% | 19 | 62.7 | 24.6% | 71.6% | -260 |
| Joaquin Buckley 21-8 |
$7,800 | 59.9 | 31.4% | 16 | 63.0 | 36.2% | 46.1% | +114 |
| Steven Koslow 6-1 |
$8,000 | 70.5 | 39.9% | 14 | 69.9 | 47.3% | 60.3% | -158 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius 15-4 |
$6,900 | 46.3 | 17.7% | 9 | 49.5 | 25.9% | 25.1% | +279 |
| Julien Leblanc 10-3 |
$6,700 | 23.0 | 15.1% | 8 | 23.5 | 6.7% | 13.8% | +600 |
Full 26-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
The main event favorite is not the one you think
Joaquin Buckley is the higher ranked fighter, the bigger name, and the underdog. The model gives Mike Malott 53.9% and the market agrees at -125 and +114. Buckley draws 31.4% DraftKings ownership to Malott’s 36.5%, so the field has this roughly right, but the gap is narrower than the fight warrants.
What separates them is floor. Malott projects 210 seconds of control, by far the most on the card and a function of five rounds. DraftKings pays 0.03 per second of control; FanDuel pays nothing. If this one goes long rather than ending early, Malott banks points the whole way and Buckley does not.
UFC Edmonton DFS picks: the core plays
Katlyn Cerminara ($9,000 DK / 19 FD) has the best figure on the card at 3.88. She is 71.6% to win at just 15.9% DraftKings ownership in a fight the market prices at -260. Her original opponent Jamey-Lyn Horth withdrew injured and Mackenzie Stiller stepped in at 6-1, and the field has not adjusted.
Erin Blanchfield ($9,300 DK / 22 FD) is at 3.85, 74.9% to win at 18.6% ownership in the co-main. The showdown number is the one to look at: 2.2% captain ownership.
Nick Galanti ($9,500 DK / 23 FD) is the top projection at 90.6 with a 73.2% finish rate, the highest on the card, and 86.2% to win at -649.
Showdown: the Blanchfield captain gap
The showdown covers eight fights with one captain at 1.5x salary and points plus five flex, under a $50,000 cap. The cheapest legal roster costs $35,000, so captain selection is most of the decision.
| Fighter | CPT Salary | CPT Proj | CPT Own | FLEX Own | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Galanti | $14,100 | 135.9 | 7.1% | 32.4% | 25.3 |
| Mandel Nallo | $12,900 | 128.0 | 12.2% | 39.3% | 27.1 |
| Cristian Perez | $13,200 | 125.0 | 10.6% | 41.1% | 30.5 |
| Kyle Daukaus | $12,000 | 114.3 | 9.5% | 36.1% | 26.6 |
| Erin Blanchfield | $13,500 | 107.1 | 2.2% | 40.3% | 38.1 |
| Mike Malott | $11,100 | 106.7 | 11.0% | 33.5% | 22.5 |
| Jhonata Diniz | $12,300 | 103.9 | 6.8% | 29.6% | 22.8 |
| Louis Jourdain | $11,400 | 98.8 | 8.2% | 29.8% | 21.6 |
| Joaquin Buckley | $10,500 | 89.9 | 8.8% | 32.8% | 24.0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | $7,800 | 69.4 | 5.5% | 45.6% | 40.1 |
Erin Blanchfield appears in 40.3% of flex lineups and 2.2% of captain lineups. That is a 38.1 point swing on a fighter the model gives 74.9% to win, and the lowest captain ownership of any fighter projecting above 100 at captain. Jasmine Jasudavicius has a marginally wider raw gap at 45.6% against 5.5%, but she is the 25.1% underdog in that same fight.
Full card breakdown
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley 21-8 | 46.1% | $7,800 / 59.9 | 16 / 63.0 | 31.4% | +114 |
| Mike Malott 14-2-1 | 53.9% | $8,400 / 71.1 | 16 / 72.0 | 36.5% | -125 |
The main event is not what the ownership suggests. Malott is the model favorite at 53.9% and the market has him at -125, yet Joaquin Buckley is the bigger name and the higher ranked fighter. Malott projects 210 seconds of control, by far the most on the card and a product of five rounds. At 36.5% DraftKings ownership he is not cheap exposure, but he is the correct side, and the control number is a DraftKings-specific reason since FanDuel pays nothing for it.
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield 14-2 | 74.9% | $9,300 / 71.4 | 22 / 74.8 | 18.6% | -333 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius 15-4 | 25.1% | $6,900 / 46.3 | 9 / 49.5 | 17.7% | +279 |
74.9% to win in the co-main at only 18.6% DraftKings ownership, a 3.85 figure and the second best on the card. She is the ranked flyweight here at 14-2, projecting 71.4 with 87 seconds of control, and the market has her at -333. Jasudavicius is 15-4 and draws 17.7%, so neither fighter in this bout is heavily owned. The showdown number is the striking one: 2.2% captain ownership on a fighter the model gives nearly 75%.
Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson 17-7-1 | 23.4% | $7,000 / 33.6 | 9 / 35.5 | 13.7% | +290 |
| Cristian Perez 15-2 | 76.6% | $9,200 / 83.3 | 21 / 87.8 | 34.7% | -341 |
76.6% to win with 83 seconds of control and a 63.4% finish rate, projecting 83.3 DraftKings and 87.8 FanDuel. He is 15-2 and unranked against Kyle Nelson at 17-7-1. The problem is FanDuel: 51.8% ownership there, more than half the field, against 34.7% on DraftKings. Same fighter, very different exposure depending where you play.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Barriault 17-11 | 34.9% | $7,500 / 44.3 | 13 / 48.4 | 19.9% | +165 |
| Kyle Daukaus 17-5 | 65.1% | $8,700 / 76.2 | 17 / 81.8 | 37.5% | -185 |
65.1% to win projecting 76.2 with 122 seconds of control, and an unusual site split in the other direction: 37.5% DraftKings against just 32.5% FanDuel. The market has this at -185 against Marc-Andre Barriault, who is 17-11. A 2.03 figure puts him in fade territory on DraftKings specifically.
Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Jourdain 9-3 | 62.5% | $8,600 / 65.9 | 17 / 67.3 | 27.6% | -175 |
| Timmy Cuamba 10-4 | 37.5% | $7,600 / 43.2 | 13 / 43.1 | 17.1% | +152 |
62.5% to win at 27.6% DraftKings and just 21.7% FanDuel ownership, projecting 65.9 with 114 seconds of control and a 2.38 figure. The market has this at -175 against Timmy Cuamba. One of the few fighters on the card whose FanDuel exposure is lighter than his DraftKings exposure.
Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandel Nallo 14-4 | 71.6% | $9,100 / 85.3 | 20 / 93.3 | 43.1% | -275 |
| Nate Landwehr 18-8 | 28.4% | $7,100 / 38.9 | 10 / 43.8 | 19.4% | +239 |
The heaviest FanDuel chalk on the card at 63.9% ownership, nearly two in three entries, against 43.1% on DraftKings. He is 71.6% to win at -275 with a 63.0% finish rate, so the projection is real, but a 1.98 leverage figure means you are matching the room rather than beating it. If you play him, DraftKings is where it costs you less.
Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Boser 22-11-1 | 30.9% | $7,400 / 38.6 | 12 / 42.1 | 14.9% | +200 |
| Jhonata Diniz 9-2 | 69.1% | $8,800 / 69.3 | 18 / 75.6 | 27.2% | -209 |
69.1% to win at 27.2% DraftKings and 45.1% FanDuel ownership, projecting 69.3 with a 48.4% finish rate. The market has it at -209 against Tanner Boser, who is 22-11-1 and the more experienced heavyweight. A 2.55 figure is middling, and the FanDuel exposure is the part to watch.
Julien Leblanc vs Nick Galanti
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julien Leblanc 10-3 | 13.8% | $6,700 / 23.0 | 8 / 23.5 | 15.1% | +600 |
| Nick Galanti 8-1 | 86.2% | $9,500 / 90.6 | 23 / 93.4 | 33.0% | -649 |
The top projection on the slate at 90.6 DraftKings and 93.4 FanDuel, 86.2% to win with a 73.2% finish rate, the highest on the card. He is 8-1 at $9,500 against Julien Leblanc, who took this on short notice after Gilbert Urbina withdrew. A 2.74 figure at 33.0% ownership is reasonable rather than exceptional, but nothing else here combines that win probability with that finishing profile.
Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javad Mahjoub 5-0 | 48.3% | $8,300 / 53.5 | 15 / 53.9 | 25.4% | +115 |
| Joel Faglier 6-0 | 51.7% | $7,900 / 56.7 | 14 / 57.4 | 30.5% | -125 |
6-0 and 51.7% to win in a fight the market calls close at -125. He took this against Javad Mahjoub, who is 5-0, after Louie Sutherland withdrew. Both men are unbeaten, which is presumably why the field is split almost evenly at 30.5% and 25.4%. A 1.86 figure means there is nothing to gain here either way.
Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara 18-6 | 71.6% | $9,000 / 61.8 | 19 / 62.7 | 15.9% | -260 |
| Mackenzie Stiller 6-1 | 28.4% | $7,200 / 45.6 | 10 / 48.4 | 18.7% | +235 |
The best leverage figure on the card at 3.88. She is 71.6% to win at just 15.9% DraftKings and 24.6% FanDuel ownership, projecting 61.8 at $9,000 in a fight the market prices at -260. Worth knowing the context: her original opponent Jamey-Lyn Horth withdrew injured and Mackenzie Stiller stepped in at 6-1. A replacement opponent against an 18-6 veteran is the kind of spot the field tends to overlook, and at one entry in six it clearly has.
Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Anheliger 13-8 | 39.7% | $8,200 / 44.9 | 15 / 45.3 | 17.6% | +145 |
| Steven Koslow 6-1 | 60.3% | $8,000 / 70.5 | 14 / 69.9 | 39.9% | -158 |
60.3% to win with 190 seconds of projected control, third most on the card, which is what carries a 70.5 projection at $8,000. The issue is ownership at 39.9% DraftKings and 47.3% FanDuel for a fighter the market prices at only -158. His 1.77 figure is among the worst on the slate, and Chad Anheliger at 39.7% to win draws 17.6%.
Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa Croden 8-3 | 74.6% | $8,900 / 77.9 | 18 / 80.9 | 32.2% | -300 |
| Chelsea Chandler 7-4 | 25.4% | $7,300 / 40.8 | 11 / 40.5 | 14.1% | +279 |
74.6% to win and a 2.42 figure, projecting 77.9 with 140 seconds of projected control, the second most on the card. The market has her at -300 against Chelsea Chandler. Ownership is 32.2% DraftKings but 47.2% FanDuel, so this is a materially better DraftKings play than a FanDuel one, and the control time is exactly why.
SuYoung You vs Cody Chovancek
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SuYoung You 16-4 | 44.7% | $7,700 / 54.8 | 15 / 50.9 | 27.1% | +112 |
| Cody Chovancek 9-0 | 55.3% | $8,500 / 55.3 | 16 / 53.6 | 20.4% | -125 |
9-0 and 55.3% to win at 20.4% DraftKings and just 15.6% FanDuel ownership, a 2.72 figure in a fight the market prices at -125. SuYoung You is 16-4 and the more experienced fighter at 44.7%, drawing 27.1%. Close fight, light exposure, and the kind of spot worth a look in tournaments without being a core play.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Galanti | $9,500 | 90.6 | 86.2% | 33.0% |
| Melissa Croden | $8,900 | 77.9 | 74.6% | 32.2% |
| Kyle Daukaus | $8,700 | 76.2 | 65.1% | 37.5% |
| Steven Koslow | $8,000 | 70.5 | 60.3% | 39.9% |
| Joel Faglier | $7,900 | 56.7 | 51.7% | 30.5% |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | $6,900 | 46.3 | 25.1% | 17.7% |
| Totals | $49,900 | 418.2 | 190.9% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point, restricted to fighters at or above the median projection so the build cannot fill up on cheap bodies nobody rosters.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Perez | $9,200 | 83.3 | 76.6% | 34.7% |
| Erin Blanchfield | $9,300 | 71.4 | 74.9% | 18.6% |
| Steven Koslow | $8,000 | 70.5 | 60.3% | 39.9% |
| Katlyn Cerminara | $9,000 | 61.8 | 71.6% | 15.9% |
| Joaquin Buckley | $7,800 | 59.9 | 46.1% | 31.4% |
| Julien Leblanc | $6,700 | 23.0 | 13.8% | 15.1% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 370.0 | 155.5% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Perez | $9,200 | 83.3 | 76.6% | 34.7% |
| Melissa Croden | $8,900 | 77.9 | 74.6% | 32.2% |
| Mike Malott | $8,400 | 71.1 | 53.9% | 36.5% |
| Louis Jourdain | $8,600 | 65.9 | 62.5% | 27.6% |
| SuYoung You | $7,700 | 54.8 | 44.7% | 27.1% |
| Nate Landwehr | $7,100 | 38.9 | 28.4% | 19.4% |
| Totals | $49,900 | 392.0 | 177.6% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Galanti | 23 | 93.4 | 86.2% | 29.3% |
| Mandel Nallo | 20 | 93.3 | 71.6% | 63.9% |
| Cristian Perez | 21 | 87.8 | 76.6% | 51.8% |
| Kyle Daukaus | 17 | 81.8 | 65.1% | 32.5% |
| Melissa Croden | 18 | 80.9 | 74.6% | 47.2% |
| Totals | 99 units | 437.2 | 224.8% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Galanti | 23 | 93.4 | 86.2% | 29.3% |
| Kyle Daukaus | 17 | 81.8 | 65.1% | 32.5% |
| Erin Blanchfield | 22 | 74.8 | 74.9% | 29.1% |
| Louis Jourdain | 17 | 67.3 | 62.5% | 21.7% |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 19 | 62.7 | 71.6% | 24.6% |
| Totals | 98 units | 380.0 | 137.3% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Julien Leblanc carries the worst leverage figure on the slate at 1.53: 15.1% DraftKings ownership on a 13.8% win probability against a +600 price. He took this fight after Gilbert Urbina withdrew, and at $6,700 he is the cheapest body on the board, but a 9.5% finish rate and 46 seconds of projected control mean he banks almost nothing.
Steven Koslow is at 1.77, drawing 39.9% DraftKings and 47.3% FanDuel ownership on a 60.3% win probability in a fight priced at only -158.
Mandel Nallo is the FanDuel-specific problem at 63.9% ownership there, nearly two in three entries, against 43.1% on DraftKings. The 71.6% win probability is real; the exposure is the issue.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again. The calibration returns an R squared of 0.997 with a slope of 1.039 across all 13 fights, the tightest fit we have recorded. The model is reproducing the market almost exactly. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC Edmonton?
Katlyn Cerminara at 3.88, 71.6% to win at 15.9% DraftKings ownership. Erin Blanchfield is close behind at 3.85.
Is Joaquin Buckley the main event favorite?
No. Both the model and the market make Mike Malott the favorite, at 53.9% and -125. Malott also projects the most control time on the card.
Who is the best showdown captain?
Erin Blanchfield at 2.2% captain ownership against 40.3% flex, on a 74.9% win probability.
What time does the card lock?
5:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 17, 2026, on both sites.
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