Vidanta Vallarta is a par 5 golf course with some other holes attached. There are four of them, they average 593 yards, and between them they account for 32 percent of the total yardage. Add five par 3s and only nine par 4s are left, one of which is drivable at 297.
The 6th plays 637 yards, the 12th 603, the 8th 585 and the 3rd 548. Nobody is overpowering that set, but it is 2,373 yards of golf course on four holes, so the gap between a golfer who handles them and one who does not compounds four times a round. It is paspalum tee to green on a coastal site where the wind has a say, and Tony Finau holds the record at 260 from 2023.
One thing about the draw is worth knowing before you build. There is a three hour gap in the middle of it: the early wave goes off between 7:05 and 8:44, then nothing until 11:45, when the late wave runs to 1:24. Fifty nine golfers in each. Twelve of the late wave tee off before noon, so a clock based wave filter mis-sorts a fifth of them. Ours splits on the gap, which matches the actual draw and the DraftKings late slate exactly.
Below is the full FTA Sims breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel: golfer grades built on a price residual model, make cut and finish probabilities, why the two heaviest chalk plays of the season are both correct, where the real leverage sits, and four sample builds.
VidantaWorld Mexico Open DFS Picks and Lineups: 2026
Vidanta Vallarta is a par 5 golf course with some other holes attached. There are four of them and they average 593 yards, the longest set we have graded all season, and between them they account for 32 percent of the total yardage. Add five par 3s and you are left with only nine par 4s, one of which is drivable at 297. Almost nothing about this card is normal.
The Course: Vidanta Vallarta
The par 5s are where this tournament is decided. The 6th plays 637 yards, the 12th 603, the 8th 585 and the 3rd 548. That is not a set anyone is overpowering, but it is also 2,373 yards of golf course on four holes, so the gap between a golfer who handles them and one who does not compounds four times a round and sixteen times a week.
The five par 3s average 198 yards and swing from 170 to 235. The nine par 4s average 441, and the 13th at 297 is a genuine driver hole. It is paspalum from tee to green, which is a different surface again, and a coastal site where the wind has a say. Tony Finau holds the record at 260 from 2023 and he is in the field.
The Draw Is Not A Morning And Afternoon Split
There is a three hour gap in the middle of this draw. The early wave goes off between 7:05 and 8:44, then nothing until 11:45, when the late wave starts and runs to 1:24. Fifty nine golfers in each. That matters because twelve of the late wave tee off before noon, so a clock based split would file them with the morning players and quietly mis-sort a fifth of that wave. Our wave filter splits on the gap instead, which means it matches the actual draw and the DraftKings late slate exactly.
Worth watching given the forecast. On a coastal course with a three hour separation between waves, weather moving through hits one half of the field and not the other, and that is the cheapest leverage available on any slate when it happens.
How We Graded This Week
The cut is live, so make cut probability is in the grade. Every golfer is measured against what his own salary implies: we fit projection, ceiling, floor and projected ownership against price across the field, then grade on the gap, which keeps the grade tier neutral across a 118 man field.
EAT: What The Model Is Paying For
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own | Own for price | Pts vs price | Make cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyndham Clark | 10,900 | 81.8 | 16.3% | 19.7% | +6.72 | 82.8% |
| Brice Garnett | 6,300 | 55.3 | 1.3% | 0.6% | +5.29 | 55.6% |
| Chandler Phillips | 6,800 | 61.6 | 5.7% | 3.3% | +5.25 | 64.5% |
| Max McGreevy | 6,900 | 62.7 | 6.9% | 3.8% | +5.16 | 65.5% |
| Trent Phillips | 6,400 | 56.3 | 1.3% | 1.2% | +4.98 | 58.2% |
| Austin Eckroat | 7,200 | 65.8 | 13.1% | 5.3% | +4.96 | 68.9% |
| Doug Ghim | 9,400 | 80.0 | 33.0% | 14.7% | +4.83 | 80.5% |
| Zecheng Dou | 7,000 | 63.4 | 8.1% | 4.3% | +4.69 | 65.9% |
| Cameron Tankersley | 6,000 | 50.2 | 0.3% | 0.0% | +4.46 | 50.0% |
The Two Biggest Overlays Of The Season, And Both Are Right
Doug Ghim is 33.0 percent owned on DraftKings against a 14.7 percent fit, and Andrew Novak is 27.4 against 9.5. Those are the two largest ownership overlays we have measured this season, and on FanDuel Novak is worse still at 32.0 percent against a 9.0 percent fit, a gap of twenty three points. Normally that is the shape of a fade. Here it is not: Ghim projects +4.83 points above his price with an 80.5 percent make cut number, and Novak +3.63 with 75.5. The crowd has piled into two golfers and the model agrees with the crowd on both.
Where The Leverage Is
Wyndham Clark is the best play on the board and he is underowned. At 10,900 he projects +6.72 points above his own price curve, the largest margin in the field, with an 82.8 percent make cut number and a 47.6 percent top 20 probability. He is 16.3 percent owned against a 19.7 percent fit on DraftKings, and on FanDuel the gap is wider still at 15.6 against 21.7. The crowd spent its attention on Ghim and Novak and left the best golfer on the board cheaper than his price implies.
At the bottom of the board the same thing is happening quietly. Brice Garnett is +5.29 points above his price at 1.3 percent owned, Chandler Phillips +5.25 at 5.7, and Trent Phillips +4.98 at 1.3. These are not darts, they are golfers with make cut numbers in the fifties and sixties that the field has not priced.
Marco Penge and Max Homa are the version that looks the same and is not. They are the two biggest ownership underlays on the board, 8.7 percent against a 15.8 percent fit and 7.9 against 14.0. Check the projection column before you get excited: they are -6.81 and -5.83 points against their prices, two of the worst marks in the field. Low ownership on a golfer the model dislikes is not leverage, it is the field and the model reaching the same conclusion.
FADE: Owned Beyond The Price
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own | Own for price | Pts vs price | Make cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keita Nakajima | 7,700 | 68.2 | 17.9% | 7.7% | +2.52 | 70.7% |
| Kris Ventura | 7,900 | 68.3 | 15.7% | 8.6% | +0.96 | 70.7% |
| Taylor Moore | 7,500 | 66.5 | 13.7% | 6.7% | +2.67 | 68.9% |
| Kevin Roy | 7,500 | 66.3 | 13.4% | 6.7% | +2.42 | 69.0% |
| Trace Crowe | 7,800 | 66.8 | 9.4% | 8.1% | +0.32 | 69.8% |
| Rafael Campos | 6,200 | 47.4 | 0.4% | 0.1% | -1.26 | 44.1% |
| Kensei Hirata | 6,100 | 47.1 | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.06 | 44.1% |
A note on Tony Finau, since he shot 260 here in 2023 and that number will come up all week. He is 7,300 and 3.3 percent owned, projecting -1.64 points against his price. That is milder than the course record traps we have flagged at other venues this season, but it is the same shape: the record is three years old and the pricing already knows about it.
PIVOT: Ceiling The Field Has Not Priced
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own | Own for price | Pts vs price | Make cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Stanger | 6,100 | 49.0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | +1.83 | 46.4% |
| Jeffrey Kang | 6,300 | 51.2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | +1.18 | 49.9% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 6,700 | 56.6 | 1.6% | 2.8% | +1.39 | 57.3% |
| William Mouw | 7,100 | 60.6 | 3.4% | 4.8% | +0.79 | 62.3% |
| Karl Vilips | 6,900 | 58.5 | 2.2% | 3.8% | +0.90 | 59.8% |
| Kihei Akina | 7,100 | 60.2 | 3.0% | 4.8% | +0.39 | 61.6% |
| Joel Dahmen | 6,800 | 57.5 | 1.6% | 3.3% | +1.07 | 58.5% |
| Davis Riley | 6,600 | 53.2 | 1.2% | 2.2% | -0.72 | 52.1% |
FanDuel Prices This Field Harder
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own | Own for price | Pts vs price | Make cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Novak | 9,900 | 75.1 | 32.0% | 9.0% | +5.02 | 75.5% |
| Austin Eckroat | 8,700 | 67.6 | 20.5% | 4.7% | +6.46 | 68.9% |
| Doug Ghim | 11,600 | 83.8 | 28.8% | 16.0% | +5.63 | 80.5% |
| Ben Griffin | 11,500 | 82.1 | 25.8% | 15.6% | +4.30 | 80.0% |
| John Parry | 8,600 | 65.3 | 12.1% | 4.4% | +5.04 | 66.8% |
| Tom Kim | 12,000 | 84.2 | 24.4% | 17.9% | +5.02 | 81.5% |
Every name in that list is graded EAT, which is unusual and tells you the FanDuel crowd has concentrated hard on golfers the model likes. The consequence is that differentiation on FanDuel costs more: our tournament build there sits at 68.6 percent cumulative ownership against 73.7 on DraftKings.
Lineups
Cash maximises projection at the cap. Tournament builds run the same solver under a cumulative ownership ceiling, 75 percent on DraftKings and 70 percent on FanDuel, set by buying as much differentiation as three percent of projection can pay for. Both cash builds sit above 127 percent cumulative ownership, which is what happens when two golfers draw a third of the field between them.
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kim | 10,100 | 80.5 | 23.1% |
| Doug Ghim | 9,400 | 80.0 | 33.0% |
| Andrew Novak | 8,100 | 72.5 | 27.4% |
| Keita Nakajima | 7,700 | 68.2 | 17.9% |
| Taylor Moore | 7,500 | 66.5 | 13.7% |
| Austin Eckroat | 7,200 | 65.8 | 13.1% |
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyndham Clark | 10,900 | 81.8 | 16.3% |
| Ben Griffin | 9,800 | 78.5 | 19.5% |
| Lee Hodges | 7,500 | 65.3 | 8.8% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 7,400 | 65.7 | 10.0% |
| Austin Eckroat | 7,200 | 65.8 | 13.1% |
| John Parry | 7,200 | 63.9 | 6.0% |
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kim | 12,000 | 84.2 | 24.4% |
| Doug Ghim | 11,600 | 83.8 | 28.8% |
| Andrew Novak | 9,900 | 75.1 | 32.0% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 9,200 | 67.3 | 10.0% |
| Austin Eckroat | 8,700 | 67.6 | 20.5% |
| John Parry | 8,600 | 65.3 | 12.1% |
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyndham Clark | 12,800 | 85.7 | 15.6% |
| Benjamin James | 11,800 | 82.6 | 21.4% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 9,500 | 67.4 | 6.6% |
| Zac Blair | 8,900 | 65.7 | 8.0% |
| Zecheng Dou | 8,600 | 64.8 | 8.2% |
| Max McGreevy | 8,400 | 64.0 | 8.8% |
How To Play It
- Par 5 scoring is the edge. Four holes averaging 593 yards and a third of the total yardage means the gap between a good par 5 week and a bad one decides this tournament.
- Do not reflex fade Ghim and Novak. They are the heaviest chalk of the season and the model has both above their prices. Being different for its own sake here costs you points.
- Take Wyndham Clark. The best projection in the field at below market ownership is the cleanest edge on the board.
- Watch the wave, properly. The draw splits 59 and 59 with a three hour gap, not at noon, so if weather moves through it hits one half cleanly.
- Two withdrawals, C.T. Pan and Sami Valimaki, are removed from every board here.
Projections and projected ownership are FTA projections. Ownership moves all week, so treat the ownership columns as a read on the crowd at the time of writing.