These are FTA’s UFC 333 DFS picks for Saturday’s card at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Alexander Volkanovski defends the featherweight title against undefeated Movsar Evloev, with Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili meeting for the bantamweight title in the co-main. Fourteen fights, and the slate locks at 10:00 AM ET when the early prelims begin. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, and cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 10-0 |
$9,400 | 94.7 | 37.1% | 22 | 100.0 | 50.8% | 83.7% | -488 |
| Merab Dvalishvili 21-5 |
$7,400 | 86.1 | 50.0% | 13 | 87.0 | 52.3% | 40.5% | +133 |
| Asaf Chopurov 11-0 |
$9,500 | 83.4 | 24.7% | 23 | 85.6 | 25.3% | 84.3% | -549 |
| Movsar Evloev 20-0 |
$8,000 | 83.0 | 45.6% | 16 | 84.2 | 43.6% | 49.6% | -100 |
| Petr Yan 20-5 |
$8,800 | 81.1 | 36.7% | 19 | 84.8 | 38.5% | 59.5% | -138 |
| Alexander Volkanovski 28-4 |
$8,200 | 75.2 | 35.5% | 16 | 79.8 | 38.6% | 50.4% | -104 |
| Iasmin Lucindo 18-6 |
$9,200 | 72.8 | 17.4% | 21 | 74.4 | 14.1% | 77.2% | -376 |
| Azamat Murzakanov 16-1 |
$9,000 | 70.2 | 22.6% | 20 | 77.8 | 32.0% | 66.1% | -186 |
| Abubakar Vagaev 25-4 |
$8,900 | 58.8 | 11.8% | 18 | 55.6 | 5.0% | 58.2% | -144 |
| Alexander Volkov 40-11 |
$8,400 | 54.5 | 11.6% | 15 | 56.7 | 10.3% | 53.7% | -117 |
| Grant Dawson 24-3-1 |
$8,500 | 60.3 | 16.6% | 15 | 55.2 | 8.2% | 52.0% | -108 |
| Nicolle Caliari 9-4 |
$7,000 | 38.5 | 6.3% | 9 | 38.8 | 2.7% | 22.8% | +420 |
Full 28-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
The weigh-in miss is the play
Iasmin Lucindo is 77.2% to win at 17.4% DraftKings and 14.1% FanDuel ownership. That is a 4.18 leverage figure, the best on the card, and it was already a good spot before Friday.
Then Nicolle Caliari weighed in four and a half pounds over the limit. A fighter that far over at 115 pounds has almost certainly had a bad cut, and the model does not know it: our numbers were generated before the weigh-ins, and so was the -376 line. At roughly one entry in six on DraftKings and one in seven on FanDuel, this is the clearest edge available.
Both title fights are coin flips, and both are heavily owned
The main event is as close as a fight gets. The model gives Volkanovski 50.4% and Evloev 49.6%; the market says -104 and -100. Yet between them they absorb 81.1% of DraftKings ownership.
The co-main is similar in shape and worse in degree. Merab Dvalishvili is the single most owned fighter on the card at 50.0%, and the model makes him the underdog at 40.5% against Petr Yan’s 59.5%. The market agrees with the model at +133. What Dvalishvili does offer is 358 seconds of projected control, far and away the most on the slate and a product of five championship rounds, which is a DraftKings-specific reason to tolerate him. On FanDuel, where control pays nothing, there is no case at all.
All four championship fighters sit in our fade tier. On a 14-fight card there are better places to spend.
UFC 333 DFS picks: the core plays
Asaf Chopurov ($9,500 DK / 23 FD) is 11-0 and 84.3% to win, with a 57.4% finish rate and 118 seconds of control, at only 24.7% ownership for a 3.37 figure.
Grant Dawson ($8,500 DK / 15 FD) is at 3.63, mostly because of exposure: 16.6% DraftKings and just 8.2% FanDuel in a fight the market calls a pick’em at -108. His 169 seconds of projected control is what makes a coin flip playable.
Abubakar Vagaev ($8,900 DK / 18 FD) is at 4.99 on 5.0% FanDuel ownership, the lightest on the card for a model favorite.
Six favorites fit under the cap
For the first time in months, the six cheapest fighters the model favors on DraftKings cost $49,700 against a $50,000 cap. Every week since August has forced at least one underdog into every DraftKings lineup. This week it does not.
That changes construction. You can build a straight six-favorite lineup if you want one, and the field will too, which is part of why the title-fight ownership is so concentrated. The cash build below takes a different route, using Dvalishvili’s control time rather than chasing win probability alone.
Full card breakdown
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski 28-4 | 50.4% | $8,200 / 75.2 | 16 / 79.8 | 35.5% | -104 |
| Movsar Evloev 20-0 | 49.6% | $8,000 / 83.0 | 16 / 84.2 | 45.6% | -100 |
The featherweight title and a genuine coin flip. The model gives Volkanovski 50.4% and Evloev 49.6%, and the market agrees at -104 and -100. Both men are heavily owned, at 35.5% and 45.6% on DraftKings, so there is no leverage on either side. His 171 seconds of projected control across five rounds is the main argument for him over Evloev on DraftKings specifically. A 2.12 figure in a title fight this close is the definition of paying retail.
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan 20-5 | 59.5% | $8,800 / 81.1 | 19 / 84.8 | 36.7% | -138 |
| Merab Dvalishvili 21-5 | 40.5% | $7,400 / 86.1 | 13 / 87.0 | 50.0% | +133 |
The bantamweight title and 59.5% to win, projecting 81.1 with 179 seconds of control across five rounds. He draws 36.7% DraftKings and 38.5% FanDuel ownership. The market has him at -138. He is the better side of the co-main, but see the note on Dvalishvili: between them this fight absorbs more ownership than any other on the card.
Lone’er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone’er Kavanagh 10-2 | 50.1% | $7,900 / 53.5 | 14 / 57.3 | 18.2% | -104 |
| Ramazan Temirov 20-2 | 49.9% | $8,300 / 60.0 | 13 / 65.7 | 20.1% | -100 |
The closest fight on the card. The model gives Kavanagh 50.1% to Temirov’s 49.9%, and the market has it at -104 and -100, which is as close to a true pick’em as a line gets. He projects 53.5 with 63 seconds of control at 18.2% ownership. There is no edge here in either direction, which is worth saying rather than inventing one.
Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov 40-11 | 53.7% | $8,400 / 54.5 | 15 / 56.7 | 11.6% | -117 |
| Rizvan Kuniev 15-3-1 | 46.3% | $7,800 / 52.7 | 12 / 54.3 | 14.2% | +113 |
A 4.70 figure, almost entirely because of ownership: 11.6% DraftKings and 10.3% FanDuel. He is 40-11 and 53.7% to win against Rizvan Kuniev, in a fight the market calls -117. The projection is modest at 54.5 with only 61 seconds of projected control and a 22.2% finish rate, so this is a thin play rather than a strong one, but at one entry in nine it is genuinely contrarian.
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Pico 14-5 | 54.7% | $8,300 / 64.2 | 15 / 70.0 | 27.8% | -138 |
| Losene Keita 17-2 | 45.3% | $7,900 / 52.4 | 12 / 57.7 | 17.6% | +140 |
54.7% to win at 27.8% DraftKings ownership, projecting 64.2 with 90 seconds of control. Worth knowing the context: his original opponent Arnold Allen withdrew injured and Losene Keita stepped in at 17-2. The market has this at -138 and the model is close to it. A 2.31 figure is ordinary, and the replacement is a live one rather than a step down.
Dominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes 16-5 | 33.9% | $7,200 / 39.9 | 10 / 44.8 | 12.0% | +178 |
| Azamat Murzakanov 16-1 | 66.1% | $9,000 / 70.2 | 20 / 77.8 | 22.6% | -186 |
16-1 and 66.1% to win with a 52.2% finish rate, projecting 70.2 at $9,000 and a 3.10 figure on 22.6% DraftKings ownership. The FanDuel split is worth noting at 32.0%. Dominick Reyes is 16-5 and the recognisable name here, and the model gives him 33.9% against a market price of +178.
Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov 31-12 | 16.3% | $6,800 / 27.4 | 8 / 29.1 | 4.3% | +456 |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 10-0 | 83.7% | $9,400 / 94.7 | 22 / 100.0 | 37.1% | -488 |
10-0 and the top projection on the slate at 94.7 DraftKings and 100.0 FanDuel, 83.7% to win with a 75.6% finish rate, the highest on the card, and 71 seconds of control. The cost is exposure: 37.1% DraftKings and 50.8% FanDuel, where half the field is on him. A 2.55 figure means the projection is real and the price is retail. Nikita Krylov is 31-12 and the veteran name at 16.3%.
Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abus Magomedov 29-7-1 | 53.4% | $8,400 / 61.8 | 15 / 62.2 | 20.0% | -117 |
| Cam Rowston 15-3 | 46.6% | $7,800 / 51.6 | 13 / 54.7 | 17.3% | +113 |
53.4% to win in a near coin flip the market calls -117, projecting 61.8 with 149 seconds of projected control. He draws 20.0% DraftKings and just 16.6% FanDuel ownership for a 3.09 figure. Cam Rowston is 15-3 and the model gives him 46.6%, so this is close on both sides and lightly owned on both sides.
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson 24-3-1 | 52.0% | $8,500 / 60.3 | 15 / 55.2 | 16.6% | -108 |
| Nurullo Aliev 12-0 | 48.0% | $7,700 / 53.7 | 12 / 49.1 | 17.9% | +104 |
A 3.63 figure built on very light exposure: 16.6% DraftKings and just 8.2% FanDuel. He is 52.0% to win in a fight the market calls a true pick’em at -108, with 169 seconds of projected control which is what carries the 60.3 projection. This is a coin flip nobody is playing rather than a mispriced favorite, and the control time is why it still works on DraftKings.
Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Thicknesse 9-1 | 15.7% | $6,700 / 27.7 | 8 / 27.5 | 4.0% | +525 |
| Asaf Chopurov 11-0 | 84.3% | $9,500 / 83.4 | 23 / 85.6 | 24.7% | -549 |
11-0 and 84.3% to win, the second highest on the card, with a 57.4% finish rate and 118 seconds of projected control. He projects 83.4 DraftKings and 85.6 FanDuel at $9,500, and draws only 24.7% and 25.3% ownership for a 3.37 figure. Colby Thicknesse is 9-1 and ranked, which is presumably why the field is not more lopsided, but the market has this at -549.
Jacob Malkoun vs Abubakar Vagaev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Malkoun 10-3 | 41.8% | $7,300 / 61.5 | 10 / 60.7 | 23.9% | +138 |
| Abubakar Vagaev 25-4 | 58.2% | $8,900 / 58.8 | 18 / 55.6 | 11.8% | -144 |
A 4.99 figure on 11.8% DraftKings and just 5.0% FanDuel ownership. He is 58.2% to win against Jacob Malkoun in a fight the market prices at -144, projecting 58.8 with 128 seconds of control. One entry in twenty on FanDuel is close to nobody for a fighter the model makes the favorite.
Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Santos 13-3 | 52.6% | $8,600 / 64.5 | 17 / 70.5 | 21.7% | -104 |
| Bolaji Oki 10-4 | 47.4% | $7,600 / 59.3 | 14 / 66.6 | 26.7% | +102 |
52.6% to win against Bolaji Oki in a fight the market prices at -104, projecting 64.5 with 92 seconds of control at 21.7% ownership. A 2.98 figure on a coin flip is fine without being a standout. Both fighters are reasonably owned, so there is no real gap to exploit here.
Noah Gugnon vs Kody Steele
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gugnon 10-2 | 42.1% | $7,500 / 50.6 | 11 / 55.9 | 18.1% | +138 |
| Kody Steele 8-1 | 57.9% | $8,700 / 65.2 | 17 / 70.8 | 20.4% | -144 |
57.9% to win at 20.4% DraftKings and 24.2% FanDuel ownership, a 3.20 figure in a fight the market prices at -144. He is 8-1 against Noah Gugnon at 10-2, projecting 65.2 with a 41.6% finish rate. Reasonable exposure on a modest favorite, and one of the better mid-priced options.
Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo 18-6 | 77.2% | $9,200 / 72.8 | 21 / 74.4 | 17.4% | -376 |
| Nicolle Caliari 9-4 | 22.8% | $7,000 / 38.5 | 9 / 38.8 | 6.3% | +420 |
The play of the card at a 4.18 leverage figure, and the weigh-ins make it better. She is 77.2% to win at just 17.4% DraftKings and 14.1% FanDuel ownership, projecting 72.8 with 125 seconds of control at $9,200. Her opponent Nicolle Caliari weighed 120.5 against a 116 pound strawweight limit, four and a half pounds over, and none of that is in the projection because the numbers were generated before Friday’s weigh-ins. A heavy favorite against a depleted opponent at one entry in six is the clearest edge on this slate.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | $9,400 | 94.7 | 83.7% | 37.1% |
| Merab Dvalishvili | $7,400 | 86.1 | 40.5% | 50.0% |
| Asaf Chopurov | $9,500 | 83.4 | 84.3% | 24.7% |
| Movsar Evloev | $8,000 | 83.0 | 49.6% | 45.6% |
| Abus Magomedov | $8,400 | 61.8 | 53.4% | 20.0% |
| Jacob Malkoun | $7,300 | 61.5 | 41.8% | 23.9% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 470.4 | 201.4% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point, restricted to fighters at or above the median projection so the build cannot fill up on cheap bodies nobody rosters.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | $7,400 | 86.1 | 40.5% | 50.0% |
| Asaf Chopurov | $9,500 | 83.4 | 84.3% | 24.7% |
| Movsar Evloev | $8,000 | 83.0 | 49.6% | 45.6% |
| Iasmin Lucindo | $9,200 | 72.8 | 77.2% | 17.4% |
| Jacob Malkoun | $7,300 | 61.5 | 41.8% | 23.9% |
| Grant Dawson | $8,500 | 60.3 | 52.0% | 16.6% |
| Totals | $49,900 | 447.0 | 178.3% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | $8,800 | 81.1 | 59.5% | 36.7% |
| Alexander Volkanovski | $8,200 | 75.2 | 50.4% | 35.5% |
| Daniel Santos | $8,600 | 64.5 | 52.6% | 21.7% |
| Aaron Pico | $8,300 | 64.2 | 54.7% | 27.8% |
| Jacob Malkoun | $7,300 | 61.5 | 41.8% | 23.9% |
| Ramazan Temirov | $8,300 | 60.0 | 49.9% | 20.1% |
| Totals | $49,500 | 406.6 | 165.7% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 22 | 100.0 | 83.7% | 50.8% |
| Petr Yan | 19 | 84.8 | 59.5% | 38.5% |
| Azamat Murzakanov | 20 | 77.8 | 66.1% | 32.0% |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 21 | 74.4 | 77.2% | 14.1% |
| Kody Steele | 17 | 70.8 | 57.9% | 24.2% |
| Totals | 99 units | 407.9 | 159.5% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 22 | 100.0 | 83.7% | 50.8% |
| Asaf Chopurov | 23 | 85.6 | 84.3% | 25.3% |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 21 | 74.4 | 77.2% | 14.1% |
| Kody Steele | 17 | 70.8 | 57.9% | 24.2% |
| Abus Magomedov | 15 | 62.2 | 53.4% | 16.6% |
| Totals | 98 units | 393.0 | 130.9% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Merab Dvalishvili carries a 1.72 leverage figure, the worst on the board: 50.0% DraftKings ownership on a 40.5% win probability. Half the field is on the underdog in the co-main. The control time gives him a floor on DraftKings, but the price is as high as it gets.
Movsar Evloev is at 1.82, drawing 45.6% ownership in a fight the model calls 49.6%. He is 20-0, which is doing the work here rather than the projection.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is the FanDuel-specific problem at 50.8% ownership there against 37.1% on DraftKings. The 83.7% win probability and the card-leading 75.6% finish rate are both real; you are simply paying retail for them on FanDuel.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again. The calibration returns an R squared of 0.989 with a slope of 0.991 across all 14 fights. A slope just under 1.0 means the model is reproducing the market rather than stretching it. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make.
The exception, as last week, is the weigh-in. Caliari’s four and a half pound miss happened after the lines were set, and no model output accounts for it. That is a judgement call we are flagging rather than pricing.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC 333?
Iasmin Lucindo at 4.18, 77.2% to win at 17.4% DraftKings ownership, against an opponent who missed weight by four and a half pounds.
Who missed weight?
Nicolle Caliari, 120.5 against a 116 pound limit. Everyone else made weight.
Should you play the main event?
The model and the market both call it a coin flip, and both men are heavily owned. There is no leverage on either side.
What time does the card lock?
10:00 AM ET on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Main card is at 2:00 PM ET.
FTA+ members get the full UFC 333 cheat sheet with every fighter tiered, and the complete projections board.