These are FTA’s UFC Belgrade DFS picks for Saturday’s card at Belgrade Arena, the promotion’s first-ever event in Serbia. Uros Medic meets Daniel Rodriguez in a welterweight main event on a 14-fight board that locks at 10:00 AM ET, so this is an early morning slate rather than the usual Saturday night window. Below is the full card breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, cash and GPP builds, and the one structural quirk that shapes every DraftKings lineup this week.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uros Medic 13-3 | $9,400 | 98.9 | 29.1% | 21 | 109.1 | 40.7% | 85.7% | -335 |
| Mateusz Rebecki 20-5 | $9,600 | 96.5 | 20.6% | 22 | 103.5 | 26.2% | 89.1% | -567 |
| Vlasto Cepo 14-3 | $9,100 | 94.2 | 34.5% | 19 | 101.5 | 47.4% | 83.4% | -317 |
| Michael Oliveira 9-0 | $9,200 | 87.7 | 25.0% | 19 | 90.9 | 34.2% | 84.4% | -335 |
| Aleksandar Rakic 14-6 | $9,300 | 82.4 | 18.5% | 20 | 87.8 | 23.0% | 83.9% | -335 |
| Nina Milosevic 8-1 | $9,500 | 80.3 | 11.5% | 21 | 80.0 | 5.3% | 86.8% | -400 |
| Bogdan Grad 15-4 | $8,600 | 79.3 | 35.7% | 16 | 82.6 | 48.2% | 71.3% | -190 |
| Navajo Stirling 10-0 | $9,000 | 78.4 | 22.2% | 20 | 83.1 | 16.4% | 82.3% | -305 |
| Stephanie Luciano 7-2-1 | $8,900 | 77.0 | 22.0% | 18 | 78.5 | 22.0% | 82.8% | -315 |
| Ludovit Klein 24-5-1 | $8,800 | 75.8 | 24.2% | 17 | 76.6 | 28.1% | 77.4% | -223 |
| Jovan Leka 13-2 | $8,700 | 75.2 | 27.3% | 17 | 79.5 | 34.8% | 78.1% | -235 |
| Borislav Nikolic 16-2 | $8,400 | 71.4 | 32.3% | 16 | 75.7 | 37.5% | 69.4% | -188 |
Full 28-fighter table is on the MMA DFS projections page.
UFC Belgrade DFS picks: the core plays
Mateusz Rebecki ($9,600 DK / 22 FD) is the best fighter on this board and somehow not the most owned. He carries the highest win probability on the card at 89.1% and the highest projected control time at 142 seconds. Control time is the quiet scoring engine in DraftKings MMA, and no one else on the slate is close. He is the most expensive fighter available and sits at just 20.6% ownership, which makes him a cash anchor and a leverage play at the same time.
Nina Milosevic ($9,500 DK / 21 FD) is the leverage play of the week. The model puts her at 86.8%, third-highest on the card, and she is owned at 11.5% on DraftKings and 5.3% on FanDuel. Her projected points per ownership point is 7.0, which is 48% clear of the next fighter on the list. On FanDuel, one lineup in twenty has her.
Vlasto Cepo ($9,100 DK / 19 FD) is the cash floor. His 25th percentile outcome of 106.0 is the highest on the board and his 12% quick-finish rate leads the card. He is expensive in ownership at 34.5% DK and 47.4% FD, but that floor is what 50/50s are built on.
Full card breakdown
Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uros Medic 13-3 | 85.7% | $9,400 / 98.9 | 21 / 109.1 | 29.1% | -335 |
| Daniel Rodriguez 20-5 | 14.3% | $6,800 / 29.9 | 11 / 34.0 | 15.3% | +330 |
Medic is the top FanDuel play on the slate at 109.1 projected, the only fighter in triple digits there, helped by five rounds of scoring opportunity. The model has him finishing 79% of the time, the highest finish rate on the card. The interesting wrinkle is the ownership split: 29.1% on DraftKings against 40.7% on FanDuel, so he is materially more contrarian on DK than the raw number suggests. Rodriguez at 20-5 is durable and has been finished rarely, which is the case for the fight going long.
Navajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navajo Stirling 10-0 | 82.3% | $9,000 / 78.4 | 20 / 83.1 | 22.2% | -305 |
| Jan Blachowicz 29-11-2 | 17.7% | $7,200 / 31.2 | 10 / 33.3 | 11.0% | +279 |
Stirling is 10-0 and the model gives him 82.3% against a former champion at 29-11-2. The projection is built on volume: 57.4 significant strikes is the highest figure on the entire card. Blachowicz at $7,200 and 11.0% ownership is the cheapest route to a main-card fighter, and the tournament logic writes itself. If the veteran turns back the prospect, roughly one lineup in nine has him.
Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Rakic 14-6 | 83.9% | $9,300 / 82.4 | 20 / 87.8 | 18.5% | -335 |
| Marcin Tybura 27-11 | 16.1% | $6,900 / 29.6 | 10 / 31.5 | 13.3% | +317 |
One of the best leverage spots on the slate. 83.9% to win at 18.5% ownership, with 50.3 projected significant strikes. Tybura at 27-11 has been in deep water repeatedly and the model only gives Rakic a 49% finish rate, so this projects as a decision built on accumulation rather than a quick night. Note the weigh-in gap: Tybura at 254 against Rakic at 237.5.
Robert Valentin vs Dusko Todorovic
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Valentin 11-6 | 65.6% | $8,500 / 70.0 | 15 / 73.2 | 33.3% | -152 |
| Dusko Todorovic 13-6 | 34.4% | $7,700 / 46.8 | 14 / 46.6 | 27.0% | +150 |
The weakest projection-to-ownership ratio on the card at 2.1. Valentin is 65.6% to win but carries 33.3% DraftKings and 46.5% FanDuel ownership, which is the kind of pricing that quietly caps your upside. Todorovic at +150 is the live underdog the field is skipping, and at $7,700 he is a functional salary-relief piece who still banks points through 137 seconds of projected control.
Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert Urbina
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlasto Cepo 14-3 | 83.4% | $9,100 / 94.2 | 19 / 101.5 | 34.5% | -317 |
| Gilbert Urbina 7-4 | 16.6% | $7,100 / 27.2 | 11 / 29.2 | 14.8% | +300 |
The best pure cash play on DraftKings. Cepo’s 25th percentile outcome is 106.0, the highest floor on the board, and his 12% quick-finish rate leads the card. He is expensive in ownership terms at 34.5% DK and 47.4% FD, but a floor that high is worth paying for in 50/50s. Urbina at 7-4 has the thinner record of the two and the model gives him 16.6%.
Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gugnon 9-2 | 52.2% | $8,000 / 57.7 | 15 / 58.6 | 32.6% | -120 |
| Milos Janicic 19-3 | 47.8% | $8,200 / 55.7 | 15 / 57.1 | 28.2% | +105 |
This is the fade. Gugnon sits at 32.6% DraftKings ownership for a fight the model scores 52.2% to 47.8%, essentially a coin flip, and the market agrees with a -120 and +105 pricing. You are committing $8,000 and matching a third of the field on a fight nobody can call. Janicic at 19-3 and +105 is the cheaper side of the same coin flip at 28.2% ownership.
Ludovit Klein vs Tofiq Musayev
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovit Klein 24-5-1 | 77.4% | $8,800 / 75.8 | 17 / 76.6 | 24.2% | -223 |
| Tofiq Musayev 23-6 | 22.6% | $7,400 / 40.2 | 13 / 40.8 | 17.5% | +213 |
Quietly one of the best values on the card at $8,800. 77.4% to win, 136 seconds of projected control which ranks third on the slate, and a 24-5-1 record against Musayev’s 23-6. Ownership at 24.2% DK and 28.1% FD is mid-tier for a fighter projecting like a core piece. The control-time projection is what makes him work in DraftKings scoring specifically.
Michael Oliveira vs Oban Elliott
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Oliveira 9-0 | 84.4% | $9,200 / 87.7 | 19 / 90.9 | 25.0% | -335 |
| Oban Elliott 12-4 | 15.6% | $7,000 / 27.1 | 12 / 26.6 | 11.0% | +317 |
Undefeated at 9-0 and the model has him at 84.4% with 116 seconds of control and 1.22 takedowns. That grappling-led profile gives him a floor that does not depend on landing a finish, which is exactly what cash lineups want. Elliott is the ranked fighter at #49 welterweight and is still a +317 underdog, which tells you how the market reads the prospect.
Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borislav Nikolic 16-2 | 69.4% | $8,400 / 71.4 | 16 / 75.7 | 32.3% | -188 |
| Mark Vologdin 12-4-2 | 30.6% | $7,800 / 42.9 | 14 / 45.2 | 18.6% | +160 |
16-2 and 69.4% to win, but priced at $8,400 with 32.3% ownership for a fighter the model only finishes 38% of the time. Not an outright fade, just an uncomfortable price. Vologdin at 12-4-2 and +160 has seen enough rounds to make this closer than the ownership implies.
Bogdan Grad vs Dennis Buzukja
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad 15-4 | 71.3% | $8,600 / 79.3 | 16 / 82.6 | 35.7% | -190 |
| Dennis Buzukja 12-6 | 28.7% | $7,600 / 42.0 | 13 / 46.4 | 18.7% | +186 |
The heaviest ownership on the slate at 35.7% DraftKings and 48.2% FanDuel, and the lowest win probability of anyone in that ownership range at 71.3%. Nearly half the FanDuel field is on a fighter with a better than one in four chance of scoring almost nothing. Buzukja at +186 is genuinely live. This is where tournament leverage is cheapest to find.
Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki 20-5 | 89.1% | $9,600 / 96.5 | 22 / 103.5 | 20.6% | -567 |
| Kyle Prepolec 18-10 | 10.9% | $6,600 / 23.4 | 8 / 26.2 | 10.3% | +575 |
The strongest single play on the card. 89.1% is the highest win probability on the slate and 142 seconds is the highest projected control time, and control time is where DraftKings MMA scoring quietly pays. He costs $9,600, the most on the board, yet sits at 20.6% ownership because the field is spending up elsewhere. Cash anchor and leverage piece simultaneously, which almost never happens.
Nina Milosevic vs Hailey Cowan
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Milosevic 8-1 | 86.8% | $9,500 / 80.3 | 21 / 80.0 | 11.5% | -400 |
| Hailey Cowan 7-5 | 13.2% | $6,700 / 29.2 | 9 / 27.5 | 14.3% | +390 |
The biggest leverage play on the card by a wide margin. 86.8% to win, third-highest on the slate, at 11.5% DraftKings and 5.3% FanDuel ownership. Projected points per ownership point comes out at 7.0, which is 48% clear of the next name on the list. On FanDuel in particular, roughly one lineup in twenty has her. If she wins, that is close to a free roll on the field.
Jovan Leka vs Alexander Poppeck
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovan Leka 13-2 | 78.1% | $8,700 / 75.2 | 17 / 79.5 | 27.3% | -235 |
| Alexander Poppeck 21-5 | 21.9% | $7,500 / 33.1 | 13 / 34.7 | 12.0% | +220 |
The weigh-in tells the story here. Leka came in at 262.5 pounds against Poppeck at 215, a 47.5-pound difference in a heavyweight bout. The model gives him 78.1% with a 47% finish rate, and at $8,700 DK and 17 FD he is priced well below where that profile usually lands. Poppeck is 21-5 but is giving up too much size.
Stephanie Luciano vs Marina Spasic
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Luciano 7-2-1 | 82.8% | $8,900 / 77.0 | 18 / 78.5 | 22.0% | -315 |
| Marina Spasic 7-1 | 17.3% | $7,300 / 35.4 | 12 / 35.3 | 12.2% | +279 |
Slate-opening fighters are reliably underowned and Luciano is the clean example. 82.8% to win at 22.0% ownership, with 115 seconds of projected control and 1.22 takedowns supporting the floor. Spasic at 7-1 and $7,300 is a usable punt on the other side, since her own 112 seconds of projected control means she banks points even in defeat.
Lineups
DK Cash
Five model favorites plus the single cheapest dog. The cap forces exactly one.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlasto Cepo | $9,100 | 94.2 | 83.4% | 34.5% |
| Michael Oliveira | $9,200 | 87.7 | 84.4% | 25.0% |
| Bogdan Grad | $8,600 | 79.3 | 71.3% | 35.7% |
| Borislav Nikolic | $8,400 | 71.4 | 69.4% | 32.3% |
| Noah Gugnon | $8,000 | 57.7 | 52.2% | 32.6% |
| Hailey Cowan | $6,700 | 29.2 | 13.2% | 14.3% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 419.4 | 174.4% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point. Triple-dog build, low cumulative ownership.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki | $9,600 | 96.5 | 89.1% | 20.6% |
| Aleksandar Rakic | $9,300 | 82.4 | 83.9% | 18.5% |
| Nina Milosevic | $9,500 | 80.3 | 86.8% | 11.5% |
| Marina Spasic | $7,300 | 35.4 | 17.3% | 12.2% |
| Jan Blachowicz | $7,200 | 31.2 | 17.7% | 11.0% |
| Oban Elliott | $7,000 | 27.1 | 15.6% | 11.0% |
| Totals | $49,900 | 352.8 | 84.8% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki | $9,600 | 96.5 | 89.1% | 20.6% |
| Vlasto Cepo | $9,100 | 94.2 | 83.4% | 34.5% |
| Borislav Nikolic | $8,400 | 71.4 | 69.4% | 32.3% |
| Milos Janicic | $8,200 | 55.7 | 47.8% | 28.2% |
| Dusko Todorovic | $7,700 | 46.8 | 34.4% | 27.0% |
| Daniel Rodriguez | $6,800 | 29.9 | 14.3% | 15.3% |
| Totals | $49,800 | 394.4 | 157.9% |
FD Cash
All five model favorites. FanDuel’s cap allows it, DraftKings’ does not.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uros Medic | 21 | 109.1 | 85.7% | 40.7% |
| Mateusz Rebecki | 22 | 103.5 | 89.1% | 26.2% |
| Vlasto Cepo | 19 | 101.5 | 83.4% | 47.4% |
| Michael Oliveira | 19 | 90.9 | 84.4% | 34.2% |
| Bogdan Grad | 16 | 82.6 | 71.3% | 48.2% |
| Totals | 97 units | 487.6 | 196.9% |
FD GPP Leverage
Milosevic at 5.3% ownership is the anchor.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki | 22 | 103.5 | 89.1% | 26.2% |
| Aleksandar Rakic | 20 | 87.8 | 83.9% | 23.0% |
| Navajo Stirling | 20 | 83.1 | 82.3% | 16.4% |
| Nina Milosevic | 21 | 80.0 | 86.8% | 5.3% |
| Marina Spasic | 12 | 35.3 | 17.3% | 6.0% |
| Totals | 95 units | 389.8 | 76.9% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Three fighters carry ownership their win probability does not support. Noah Gugnon at 32.6% is the sharpest example: the model scores his fight 52.2% to 47.8% and the market prices it at -120 and +105, which is to say nobody has an opinion, yet a third of the field is committing $8,000 to one side of it. Bogdan Grad draws 35.7% DK and 48.2% FD ownership on a 71.3% win probability, the lowest of anyone in that ownership tier. Robert Valentin has the worst projection-to-ownership ratio on the card at 2.1.
Fading those three does not require reaching for bad fighters. Rebecki, Milosevic, Rakic, and Stirling are all high-probability winners sitting under 25% ownership, so the leverage is available without sacrificing projection.
A note on the betting side
We are publishing model leans this week rather than graded bets. Testing the model’s win probabilities against seven books showed the output tracks the market line almost exactly once you account for the model running hotter at the extremes, which means the disagreements that look like edges are mostly an artifact of that stretch rather than genuine differences of opinion. Where a model agrees with the market, there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC Belgrade?
Mateusz Rebecki. The highest win probability on the card at 89.1%, the highest projected control time at 142 seconds, and only 20.6% DraftKings ownership.
Can you roster six favorites on DraftKings?
No. The six cheapest model favorites total $51,000 against a $50,000 cap, so at least one underdog is mandatory. FanDuel is unconstrained.
What time does the card lock?
10:00 AM ET on Saturday, August 1, 2026, when the first prelim starts. Both main slates lock together.
Who is the biggest leverage play?
Nina Milosevic, at 86.8% to win and 11.5% DraftKings ownership.
FTA+ members get the full UFC Belgrade cheat sheet with every fighter tiered, plus the complete projections board.