UFC Vegas 120 DFS Picks: Gamrot vs Salkilld
Twelve bouts from the APEX with a 5:00 PM Eastern first bell, and the whole board is built off the round by round finish distribution rather than a flat win probability. That matters more in this sport than any other: a first round finish pays 90 points on DraftKings against 30 for a decision, so two fighters with the same win chance can be twenty points apart. Yadier del Valle carries the highest finish equity on the card at 69 percent. Salaries and projections read DraftKings first in orange and FanDuel second in blue.
Best Values On The Board
Ranked by projected points per thousand dollars of DraftKings salary. Every fighter here has a reliable rate profile, so the projection is doing real work rather than filling a gap.
| Fighter | Salary DK / FD | DK Proj | Value | Win | Finish | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quillan Salkilldvs Mateusz Gamrot · Lightweight | $8,300 / $22 | 85.5 | 10.30 | 55% | 41% | 44% |
| Mateusz Gamrotvs Quillan Salkilld · Lightweight | $7,900 / $18 | 80.9 | 10.24 | 45% | 24% | 47% |
| Yadier del Vallevs Darren Elkins · Featherweight | $9,600 / $20 | 96.4 | 10.05 | 84% | 69% | 30% |
| Alexia Thainaravs Amanda Lemos · Strawweight | $8,800 / $19 | 87.8 | 9.98 | 68% | 28% | 35% |
Leverage Plays
Projected under 22 percent owned on DraftKings but still carrying a real projection. On a twelve fight card the field piles onto the same four or five favorites, so this is where tournament equity actually comes from.
| Fighter | Salary DK / FD | DK Proj | Value | Win | Finish | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Johnsvs Gianni Vazquez · Featherweight | $8,600 / $15 | 68.7 | 7.99 | 61% | 43% | 19% |
| Billy Ray Goffvs Ty Miller · Welterweight | $7,000 / $8 | 50.3 | 7.19 | 28% | 19% | 19% |
| Amanda Lemosvs Alexia Thainara · Strawweight | $7,400 / $12 | 41.1 | 5.56 | 32% | 17% | 12% |
Fades
Popular and priced above what the finish distribution supports. These are not predictions that they lose, they are fighters whose ownership outruns their scoring ceiling.
| Fighter | Salary DK / FD | DK Proj | Value | Win | Finish | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diyar Nurgozhayvs Bruno Lopes · Light Heavyweight | $8,400 / $17 | 65.3 | 7.78 | 58% | 42% | 32% |
| Louie Sutherlandvs Jose Montanha · Heavyweight | $8,500 / $15 | 69.8 | 8.21 | 59% | 39% | 34% |
| Steven Asplundvs Guilherme Pat · Heavyweight | $9,000 / $17 | 79.9 | 8.88 | 72% | 44% | 33% |
The Main Event Is The Whole Slate
Quillan Salkilld and Mateusz Gamrot are the only fighters scheduled for five rounds, and that alone puts them in a different scoring band from everyone else. Quillan Salkilld projects 85.5 on DraftKings with a ceiling of 119.5, Mateusz Gamrot 80.9 with a ceiling of 127.3. They are also the two most owned fighters on the card at 44 and 47 percent, which means the main event is simultaneously the highest ceiling spot and the most crowded one. The distribution says this is closer to a coin flip than the ownership implies: Quillan Salkilld wins 55 percent of the time and only 41 percent of those come inside the distance.
Where The Data Runs Thin
This is a prospect card and it deserves a warning rather than a confident projection. 6 of 24 fighters have rate profiles we do not trust: Carol Foro, Gigi Canuto, Jose Montanha, Manoel Sousa, Richie Miranda, Ty Miller. Three of those carry an identical placeholder rate line that is a default rather than measured tape, and four have no record at all in the public UFC database. Their projections are built from the component forecast and the finish distribution, which are sound, but the per round striking and grappling rates behind them are not. Treat them as tournament dice rather than cash plays.
Projections are scored with each site's published rules against the opponent adjusted component forecast, then weighted across the round by round outcome distribution. Ownership is projected, not final. One fight on the card is a late replacement with no posted round market, so its finish split is modelled rather than priced.