The PGA Tour regular season ends at Sedgefield Country Club, and for a large part of this field it ends for good. Only the top seventy in FedExCup points reach the FedEx St. Jude Championship next week, which means the leaderboard and the bubble are two different competitions being played on the same golf course.
Sedgefield is the only Donald Ross design the Tour visits in its regular schedule. It plays as a par 70 at 7,131 yards with twelve par 4s, four par 3s and only two par 5s, both reachable. Eight of those par 4s measure between 400 and 450 yards, which produces an unusually high share of approach shots from 150 to 175 yards and rewards precision over distance.
Below is the full FTA Sims breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel: golfer tiers with EAT, PIVOT and FADE verdicts, win and finish probabilities, ownership leverage, the AM and PM wave picture, and four sample builds.
Wyndham Championship DFS Picks 2026: DraftKings and FanDuel Breakdown
The PGA Tour regular season ends at Sedgefield, and for a large part of this field it ends for good. Only the top seventy in FedExCup points reach Memphis next week, which means the leaderboard and the bubble are two different competitions being played on the same golf course. FTA Sims has the full board for DraftKings and FanDuel below: golfer tiers with EAT, PIVOT and FADE verdicts, win and finish probabilities, ownership leverage, the AM and PM wave picture, and four sample builds.
Three Withdrawals, and One of Them Is Still Owned
Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger and Garrick Higgo have all withdrawn. David Skinns replaces Berger and Jimmy Stanger replaces Higgo, and neither replacement carries a four round projection yet. All three of the withdrawn golfers are out of every board on this page.
Worth knowing before you build: Cantlay was still carrying 13.5 percent projected ownership on DraftKings when this data was pulled, because the ownership snapshot predates his withdrawal. That is roughly one in eight lineups holding a golfer who is not teeing off, and all of it redistributes.
The Golf Course
Sedgefield opened in 1926 and is the only Donald Ross design the Tour visits in its regular schedule. It is a par 70 at 7,131 yards, which is short by modern standards and short deliberately. There are twelve par 4s, four par 3s and only two par 5s, and both of those are reachable at 529 and 545 yards.
The character sits in the par 4s. Eight of them measure between 400 and 450 yards, which produces an unusually high share of approach shots from 150 to 175 yards. Precision with a short to mid iron matters far more here than raw distance, and the Champion Bermuda greens reward players who have already learned the surface. Nine of the last ten winning totals have finished between eighteen and twenty two under par. The 507 yard par 4 eighteenth is the hardest hole on the property and has decided this tournament more than once.
The Defending Champion Is Also the Top Projection
Cameron Young won here last year by six shots and tied the tournament scoring record at 258. He comes back as the highest projected golfer in the field at 83.68 DraftKings points, the best win probability on the board at 7.8 percent, and a 52.1 percent chance to finish inside the top twenty, which is eleven points clear of anyone else. He is $10,400 on DraftKings and $12,800 on FanDuel at 34.8 percent projected ownership.
That is a rare combination. Usually the best golfer in a field is also the most expensive relative to his edge. Here the model has Young as both the top projection and a positive value play at 8.05 points per thousand, which is why he grades EAT rather than as a tournament-only leverage piece.
Tier Board: EAT
Above the field median on both salary efficiency and make cut probability. These are the golfers worth paying for.
| Golfer | DK | FD | Proj | Own | Value | Cut | Top 20 | FTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Young | $10,400 | $12,800 | 83.68 | 34.8% | 8.05 | 80.3% | 52.1% | EAT |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,000 | $10,400 | 77.70 | 35.6% | 8.63 | 75.7% | 46.2% | EAT |
| Justin Thomas | $9,400 | $11,100 | 77.03 | 29.7% | 8.19 | 75.4% | 45.8% | EAT |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $8,700 | $9,900 | 74.95 | 35.6% | 8.61 | 73.4% | 42.9% | EAT |
| Alex Noren | $7,900 | $9,500 | 74.42 | 51.8% | 9.42 | 73.1% | 41.0% | EAT |
| Aaron Rai | $8,800 | $10,700 | 73.67 | 27.3% | 8.37 | 72.6% | 41.4% | EAT |
Alex Noren is the single largest chalk on the board at 51.8 percent, and the model does not fight it. At $7,900 he returns 9.42 points per thousand, the best figure in the field, with a 73.1 percent cut probability. Chalk is only wrong when the price of it is wrong, and this price is not.
Tier Board: PIVOT
Ranked by leverage, which is top twenty probability divided by projected ownership. These are the golfers the field is not paying for.
| Golfer | DK | FD | Proj | Own | Value | Cut | Top 20 | FTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Horschel | $7,100 | $8,700 | 53.43 | 0.7% | 7.53 | 50.7% | 11.9% | PIVOT |
| Austin Eckroat | $7,100 | $8,000 | 51.06 | 0.5% | 7.19 | 47.9% | 8.0% | PIVOT |
| Beau Hossler | $7,000 | $8,500 | 55.75 | 1.1% | 7.96 | 53.3% | 15.6% | PIVOT |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $7,000 | $8,400 | 54.93 | 0.9% | 7.85 | 53.4% | 12.6% | PIVOT |
| Taylor Pendrith | $7,100 | $8,000 | 54.05 | 1.0% | 7.61 | 51.1% | 12.9% | PIVOT |
| Kevin Roy | $7,100 | $8,200 | 54.19 | 1.2% | 7.63 | 51.4% | 13.9% | PIVOT |
Tier Board: FADE
Owned at or above the field median while sitting below it on salary efficiency or cut probability. A fade is not a prediction that a golfer plays badly, only that the price and the ownership together are worse than the alternatives.
| Golfer | DK | FD | Proj | Own | Value | Cut | Top 20 | FTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Koivun | $10,100 | $11,800 | 72.83 | 11.6% | 7.21 | 72.7% | 35.2% | FADE |
| Ben Griffin | $9,100 | $10,900 | 72.54 | 18.6% | 7.97 | 71.7% | 37.0% | FADE |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,500 | $11,600 | 72.10 | 14.5% | 7.59 | 71.5% | 34.7% | FADE |
| Ryan Gerard | $9,300 | $11,400 | 69.65 | 10.9% | 7.49 | 69.4% | 33.2% | FADE |
| Tom Kim | $9,200 | $10,800 | 68.54 | 9.6% | 7.45 | 67.0% | 34.5% | FADE |
The interesting name here is Jackson Koivun. The twenty one year old won his first Tour event in his third start and arrives sitting exactly seventieth in FedExCup points, so his week has more riding on it than almost anyone else in the field. He is also only 11.6 percent owned, which reads like leverage. The model disagrees: at $10,100 he returns 7.21 points per thousand against a field median of 8.02, so he grades FADE on price rather than on ability. Low ownership on an overpriced golfer is not leverage, it is just low ownership.
Value Board
Projected points per one thousand dollars of salary, DraftKings pricing.
| Golfer | DK | FD | Proj | Own | Value | Cut | Top 20 | FTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Noren | $7,900 | $9,500 | 74.42 | 51.8% | 9.42 | 73.1% | 41.0% | EAT |
| Alex Smalley | $7,600 | $9,200 | 70.10 | 34.5% | 9.22 | 69.4% | 35.7% | EAT |
| Bud Cauley | $7,400 | $9,300 | 67.66 | 21.3% | 9.14 | 67.5% | 32.1% | EAT |
| J.T. Poston | $7,400 | $9,100 | 67.40 | 23.2% | 9.11 | 66.3% | 32.3% | EAT |
| Jason Day | $7,200 | $8,400 | 65.43 | 16.9% | 9.09 | 64.0% | 29.9% | EAT |
| Sahith Theegala | $7,300 | $8,900 | 65.77 | 15.5% | 9.01 | 65.1% | 28.9% | EAT |
| Sepp Straka | $7,300 | $8,700 | 64.71 | 12.5% | 8.86 | 63.5% | 28.1% | EAT |
| Keith Mitchell | $7,900 | $10,100 | 69.94 | 25.6% | 8.85 | 68.6% | 35.5% | EAT |
Sample Builds
DraftKings Cash
$50,000 used · 441.86 projected · 208.4% cumulative ownership
| Justin Thomas | $9,400 | 77.03 | 29.7% |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,000 | 77.70 | 35.6% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $8,700 | 74.95 | 35.6% |
| Alex Noren | $7,900 | 74.42 | 51.8% |
| Alex Smalley | $7,600 | 70.10 | 34.5% |
| Bud Cauley | $7,400 | 67.66 | 21.3% |
DraftKings GPP
$50,000 used · 423.58 projected · 118.3% cumulative ownership
| Cameron Young | $10,400 | 83.68 | 34.8% |
| Maverick McNealy | $9,000 | 77.70 | 35.6% |
| Brooks Koepka | $8,500 | 68.29 | 12.2% |
| Jordan L. Smith | $7,500 | 63.43 | 7.7% |
| Sahith Theegala | $7,300 | 65.77 | 15.5% |
| Sepp Straka | $7,300 | 64.71 | 12.5% |
FanDuel Cash
$60,000 used · 458.73 projected · 227.7% cumulative ownership
| Justin Thomas | $11,100 | 79.99 | 35.1% |
| Aaron Rai | $10,700 | 76.23 | 30.5% |
| Maverick McNealy | $10,400 | 80.85 | 47.4% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | $9,900 | 77.67 | 47.1% |
| Alex Noren | $9,500 | 76.99 | 49.7% |
| Jason Day | $8,400 | 67.00 | 17.9% |
FanDuel GPP
$60,000 used · 432.92 projected · 119.0% cumulative ownership
| Cameron Young | $12,800 | 87.43 | 37.6% |
| Ben Griffin | $10,900 | 75.01 | 22.8% |
| Harris English | $9,900 | 67.87 | 8.6% |
| Bud Cauley | $9,300 | 69.43 | 18.3% |
| Sepp Straka | $8,700 | 66.18 | 13.7% |
| Jason Day | $8,400 | 67.00 | 17.9% |
Cash builds maximise projection outright. GPP builds maximise projection under a 120 percent cumulative ownership cap, which is where the leverage comes from rather than from picking unpopular golfers for their own sake.
Waves and Late Swap
The field splits 67 in the morning wave and 71 in the afternoon, with first tee at 6:50 and the last group away at 2:22. Round one wave advantage at Sedgefield is usually small because the course is short and the greens hold early, but the BaconLab optimizer groups golfers by wave and lets you exclude either side in one click if the forecast turns.
Withdrawal and cut line alerts run automatically inside the optimizer, so a golfer who pulls out after this is published is excluded from your builds without you having to catch it.
How To Use This Board
Value
Projected points per thousand dollars. It is how you buy the same production for less, and it is the term that decides most cash builds.
Leverage
Top twenty probability divided by projected ownership. Above about four means the field is not paying for the finish the sims see.
Cut probability
A golfer who misses the cut scores nothing across two rounds. In a 144 player field this is the term that separates cash from tournaments.
All salaries, projections, ownership, win and finish probabilities are FTA Sims for the 2026 Wyndham Championship. Three withdrawals removed. Nine late field additions are excluded from every board because they carry no four round simulation yet.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.