Championship Race DFS Picks: Homestead-Miami DraftKings and FanDuel
One race for the Cup Series title on a worn-out 1.5-mile oval. Here is how to attack Homestead on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Chase ends where it always seemed destined to end, at Homestead-Miami. Kyle Larson carries the points lead into the finale with Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe chasing, and the title goes to whoever has the most points when the checkered flag falls. Homestead is the most abrasive 1.5-mile track on the schedule: tire wear is huge, drivers run right against the wall, and long green-flag runs reward the cars that keep their speed late. For DFS, that means dominators who can run up front for long stretches, plus a few fast cars buried deep in the field.
The chalk dominator
Briscoe swept the speed charts. He had the fastest single lap in practice, ranked first on 30-lap average, won the pole, and sits fourth in the Chase standings. That adds up to a field-high 38.9 projected laps led, 16 fastest laps and the top DraftKings projection on the board (42.2). He finished fourth here last year and has a 109.5 driver rating on 1.5-mile tracks this season. The catch is that 52 percent of the field will have him. He is a strong cash play. In tournaments, decide on purpose how much of him you want rather than just following the crowd.
The place-differential lock
Keselowski starts dead last in 40th, priced at $7,100 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel, with a 38.6-point projection that ranks fourth on the whole DK board. His practice speed (11th on average) says this car belongs in the top 20, and his projected finish of 22nd is a +17 gain. At 71 percent owned on DK he is a near-lock in cash. In tournaments, the only real reason to fade him is leverage. On FanDuel he is much easier to play at 24 percent.
The leverage dominators
This is where you win a tournament. The cars with the best long-run speed on 1.5-mile tracks are owned at a fraction of the Briscoe chalk.
The title favorite and the defending Homestead winner. Larson has the best 1.5-mile resume of 2026: a 114 driver rating, an 8.1 average finish and almost 72 laps led per 267-lap race. He also had the best overall practice average. He starts fourth with 20.7 projected laps led, and at 22 percent owned he is the clearest leverage spot on the board. If he runs away with the title, lineups built around Briscoe get left behind.
Hamlin rolls off second with the second-most projected laps led (25.3). He has the best 2026 driver rating on 1.5-mile tracks in the field (117.7), with a 4.6 average finish. He is third in the standings, 70 points back. Practice was mixed, with a 21st-ranked overall average, but his 3-lap and 10-lap speed ranked in the top three. At 21 percent he is a strong tournament pivot off Briscoe.
Bell had the best 10-lap average in practice and ranked second on 30-lap average, which is exactly the long-run speed Homestead rewards. He won here in 2023, starts sixth and sits second in the standings, 67 points back. At 22 percent with a 14.6 laps-led projection he is a dominator the field is underrating.
Reddick starts third, projects 18.9 laps led and won this race in 2024 by running the wall. He is the lowest-owned of the front-row dominators at 18 percent, and he is cheaper than Larson and Hamlin on both sites.
Underowned upside
Byron led 362 laps at Martinsville last week and has finished 12th, 6th, 4th and 12th in his last four Homestead starts. He starts eighth and is only 7 percent owned on DraftKings. His projection is modest, but this is the kind of low-owned front-runner who can win a large-field tournament if he finds the top lane.
Blaney is the Kalshi favorite to win (16 percent), and his practice speed ranked in the top four on 10-lap and 30-lap averages. He starts ninth with the second-best DK projection. At 36 percent he is not exactly low owned, but he is the best pay-up option outside the title contenders, especially on FanDuel where he projects first (58.0).
The value plays
Allmendinger starts 29th but was third on overall practice average and fifth on 30-lap average. He has also finished 7th, 8th, 5th and 3rd in his last four Homestead starts. At $6,600 on DK and $5,800 on FD, he is the best value on the board after Keselowski. Expect him to be popular, and play him anyway.
Preece starts 32nd and projects a +10 gain. He finished ninth here last year from 31st. Practice speed was poor, so he carries more risk than Allmendinger, but the place-differential floor is real.
Van Gisbergen starts 34th with a +10 place-differential projection. He is a strong value on FanDuel at $5,500. His oval speed is still behind his road-course speed, so treat him as a tournament piece more than a cash lock.
Nemechek starts 36th and projects a +7 gain. He is the cleanest punt on DraftKings, and on FanDuel at $3,000 he projects for 13.8x value. He makes the expensive dominator builds fit.
How to build it
DraftKings cash core
DraftKings tournament build
FanDuel cash core
FanDuel tournament build
The bottom line
Homestead is a long-run track, so your lineups should start with the cars that had the best long-run speed in practice. Briscoe and Keselowski are the chalk, and both deserve it in cash. In tournaments, the edge is at the top of the board. Larson (22 percent), Hamlin (21), Bell (22) and Reddick (18) all have dominator upside, and Larson, Hamlin and Bell are the top three in the standings. One more thing: title fights change strategy. Contenders may take two tires or stay out on worn tires late to gain track position, and a late caution can reshuffle the top five. Your lineup needs at least one title contender up front to have a real ceiling.