Freeway Insurance 500 DFS Picks: Phoenix DraftKings and FanDuel
A flat one-mile dogleg where the chalk is split two ways. Here is how to attack Phoenix on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Chase hits the desert for the seventh playoff race, a critical Round of 8 event at Phoenix Raceway. The flat, low-banked one-mile dogleg races nothing like a traditional short track: track position is everything, long green-flag runs reward tire management, and over 312 laps the cars up front can pile up laps led. Ryan Blaney put his Penske Ford on the pole, but the bigger DFS story came a few rows back.
The dominators
Over 312 laps on a flat mile, laps led and fastest laps are worth a fortune, and the front of the grid is loaded with speed.
DOMINATOR CHALK
Blaney rolls off the pole with a field-high 53.7 projected laps led and a 52.6 projection, and he has won the last two Phoenix races. The dominator ceiling is the biggest on the board. The catch is ownership: at 63 percent he is the most popular play on the slate. A near-lock for cash, but he offers little leverage in tournaments.
BEST PIVOT
The best dominator pivot off the chalk. Bell starts fifth with 22.9 projected laps led and posted the best ten-lap average in practice, the long-run speed that matters most on the flat Phoenix mile. At 27 percent owned he is the laps-led play to build around.
LEVERAGE DOMINATOR
A badly underowned dominator. Hamlin starts fourth with 17.6 projected laps led as a multi-time Phoenix winner and the 2025 pole-sitter, yet only 13 percent owned. Elite front-running speed that the field is ignoring, one of the best leverage plays on the board.
The leverage front-runners
The strongest edge this week sits in the fast cars starting up front at low ownership, all with laps-led upside.
FRONT-ROW LAPS
Logano starts on the front row with 26.6 projected laps led, the field-second total, at 25 percent owned. A former Phoenix champion with the speed to lead laps all day, a strong pivot off the Blaney chalk.
UNDEROWNED SPEED
Briscoe starts third with 16.7 projected laps led at just 10 percent owned. Front-running speed from the second row that almost nobody will have, a genuine tournament separator if he holds track position early.
LOWEST-OWNED FRONT
The lowest-owned front-runner on the board at just 8 percent. Reddick starts sixth with 12.4 projected laps led and the speed to run up front, a pure leverage dart with laps-led upside.
The place-differential plays
TITLE LEADER DEEP
The story of the weekend. The championship leader got loose in qualifying and tumbled to 22nd, which turns his elite speed into a +8 place-differential play. A former Phoenix winner carving through the field with a title on the line, a core play at 26 percent.
CHALK ANCHOR
The chalk of the slate at 66 percent owned. Heim is an open-team entry starting 36th, and the deep start gives him a board-high +15.9 place-differential and the best value on the board. The points are elite, but with two-thirds of the field on him there is no leverage. Fine in cash, a leverage sink in tournaments.
VALUE PD
A former Phoenix winner going overlooked at 10 percent. Byron starts tenth with laps-led upside and the track record to climb, a strong leverage pivot that funds the top of the board.
How to build it
Cash game core
Tournament build
Contrarian angle
The bottom line
Phoenix gives you two chalk plays and a championship leader starting deep, which makes the middle of the board the place to win. Blaney and Heim will be everywhere, so the edge is in the pivots: Bell for the laps-led floor, the underowned Hamlin, Logano and Briscoe up front, and Larson carving from 22nd with a title on the line. Fade some of that chalk and you have a lineup with the same ceiling as the field at a fraction of the ownership. Then remember it is Phoenix in the Round of 8, where a late restart and desperate playoff drivers can reshape the whole finish.