These are FTA’s UFC Sacramento DFS picks for Saturday’s card at Golden 1 Center, the promotion’s first visit to Sacramento since 2019. Anthony Hernandez meets Gregory Rodrigues in a five-round middleweight main event on a 13-fight board that locks at 5:00 PM ET. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcio Barbosa 18-2 | $9,800 | 102.5 | 25.5% | 22 | 110.1 | 33.2% | 90.5% | -791 |
| Anthony Wint 7-0 | $9,900 | 101.0 | 21.9% | 24 | 106.3 | 18.2% | 91.7% | no line |
| Mason Jones 18-2 | $9,000 | 98.8 | 42.5% | 18 | 103.7 | 54.1% | 82.7% | -275 |
| Shanelle Dyer 7-1 | $9,700 | 98.6 | 30.0% | 21 | 104.3 | 38.6% | 90.4% | -791 |
| Carli Judice 6-2 | $9,400 | 93.3 | 27.6% | 20 | 102.0 | 38.9% | 88.6% | -530 |
| Anthony Hernandez 15-3 | $8,600 | 95.2 | 45.0% | 18 | 97.2 | 38.5% | 69.7% | -183 |
| Reinier de Ridder 21-4 | $9,200 | 86.1 | 24.1% | 19 | 84.0 | 20.4% | 84.6% | -400 |
| Vitor Petrino 14-2 | $8,500 | 67.3 | 11.2% | 16 | 70.2 | 10.2% | 61.3% | -138 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu 14-6-1 | $7,800 | 52.5 | 10.6% | 12 | 58.8 | 18.5% | 41.6% | +118 |
| Wes Schultz 9-3 | $7,500 | 42.1 | 6.9% | 12 | 45.1 | 5.3% | 32.9% | +154 |
| Jamall Emmers 22-8 | $6,900 | 31.2 | 25.6% | 12 | 34.8 | 11.9% | 14.7% | +320 |
| Elise Reed 8-5 | $6,500 | 32.2 | 31.0% | 9 | 35.1 | 20.8% | 9.7% | +700 |
Full 26-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
The best play on the card has no betting line
Anthony Wint ($9,900 DK / 24 FD) is the most expensive fighter on DraftKings, carries the highest win probability on the slate at 91.7%, and projects the highest finish rate of anyone here at 82.9%. His ownership actually fell on the latest projection run, down to 21.9%.
He is also the only fighter on the board that no sportsbook will price. Wint is 7-0 and unranked, Terrance Chatman is 5-1 and unranked, and across seven books there is not a single posted number on the fight. Every other bout on this card carries a full market down to round-by-round method of victory. This one has nothing.
That is unusual enough to name plainly: the model’s most confident read of the week is a fight the betting market has declined to have an opinion about. Treat the confidence accordingly, but the DFS case stands on its own, since salary, projection and ownership do not depend on a line existing.
UFC Sacramento DFS picks: the core plays
Marcio Barbosa ($9,800 DK / 22 FD) is the top projection on both sites at 102.5 and 110.1. His ownership dropped five points on the latest run while his projection barely moved, which makes him better now than he was earlier in the week. The cleanest anchor if you want to pay up.
Wes Schultz ($7,500 DK / 12 FD) is the leverage play of the slate at 6.07 projected points per ownership point. He is a live underdog at 32.9% against McVey’s 67.1%, and the market prices it at only -175 and +154, yet he draws 6.9% DraftKings ownership.
Vitor Petrino ($8,500 DK / 16 FD) is right behind at 5.99, a 61.3% favorite in the co-main at 11.2% ownership, with 109 seconds of projected control.
Full card breakdown
Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez 15-3 | 69.7% | $8,600 / 95.2 | 18 / 97.2 | 45.0% | -183 |
| Gregory Rodrigues 19-6 | 30.3% | $7,600 / 53.5 | 14 / 58.0 | 22.8% | +170 |
The chalk of the slate and getting chalkier: ownership climbed to 45.0% on the latest run, the highest on the card by seven points. The case is real. He now projects 311 seconds of control time, comfortably the most on the board, and the highest ceiling, across five rounds in the main event. But 69.7% is a modest win probability for nearly half the field, and the market has this at only -183. Rodrigues is live at +170.
Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac 18-6 | 38.7% | $7,700 / 51.6 | 13 / 51.8 | 19.7% | +130 |
| Vitor Petrino 14-2 | 61.3% | $8,500 / 67.3 | 16 / 70.2 | 11.2% | -138 |
Still one of the two best leverage plays on the card at 5.99. Petrino is a 61.3% favorite in the co-main sitting at 11.2% DraftKings ownership, among the lowest of any favorite on the slate. Spivac at 18-6 has faced the better competition, which is presumably why the field is hesitant, but a heavyweight favorite at one in nine ownership is a tournament piece.
Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder 21-4 | 84.6% | $9,200 / 86.1 | 19 / 84.0 | 24.1% | -400 |
| Roman Dolidze 15-5 | 15.4% | $7,000 / 31.0 | 11 / 29.5 | 18.3% | +340 |
21-4 and 84.6% to win, with 190 seconds of projected control. At 24.1% DraftKings ownership he is a core piece the field is underweighting relative to the market, which has him at -400. He moves up to light heavyweight against Dolidze, who the model gives 15.4%.
Mason Jones vs MarQuel Mederos
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Jones 18-2 | 82.7% | $9,000 / 98.8 | 18 / 103.7 | 42.5% | -275 |
| MarQuel Mederos 11-1-1 | 17.3% | $7,200 / 41.2 | 11 / 46.8 | 15.0% | +275 |
18-2 and 82.7% to win, and the heaviest FanDuel ownership on the card at 54.1%. More than half the FanDuel field is here, against 42.5% on DraftKings. The projection is real at 98.8 DK, but there is no leverage left in the price on FanDuel specifically.
Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice 6-2 | 88.6% | $9,400 / 93.3 | 20 / 102.0 | 27.6% | -530 |
| Jeisla Chaves 7-0 | 11.4% | $6,800 / 42.4 | 10 / 47.4 | 27.6% | +455 |
88.6% to win against a -530 line, projecting 93.3 DK and 102.0 FD. Ownership sits at 27.6% DK and 38.9% FD. Chaves is 7-0 but the model gives her only 11.4%, one of the widest gaps on the card between an unbeaten record and a projected outcome.
Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wint 7-0 | 91.7% | $9,900 / 101.0 | 24 / 106.3 | 21.9% | no line |
| Terrance Chatman 5-1 | 8.3% | $6,300 / 14.4 | 7 / 14.6 | 4.3% | no line |
The strangest play on the card and probably the best one. Wint is the most expensive fighter on DraftKings at $9,900, carries the highest win probability on the slate at 91.7%, and projects an 82.9% finish rate, the highest of anyone here. He is also the only fighter on the board no sportsbook will price. Wint is 7-0 and unranked, Chatman is 5-1 and unranked, and the market has simply declined to post a number. Ownership actually fell on the latest projections to 21.9%, pushing his leverage figure to 4.61. The model’s most confident read on the card is a fight the betting market refuses to have an opinion on.
Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerryan Douglas 14-5 | 85.3% | $9,300 / 97.1 | 19 / 106.3 | 29.9% | -361 |
| Jamall Emmers 22-8 | 14.7% | $6,900 / 31.2 | 12 / 34.8 | 25.6% | +320 |
85.3% to win with a finish rate near 70%, and the joint second-highest FanDuel projection at 106.3. At 29.9% DK and 38.5% FD ownership he is priced into the field, but the finish rate is what carries him: this is not a fighter who needs a decision to pay off.
Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev 14-3 | 58.4% | $8,400 / 72.8 | 16 / 75.8 | 26.9% | -135 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu 14-6-1 | 41.6% | $7,800 / 52.5 | 12 / 58.8 | 10.6% | +118 |
Shamil Gaziev is the model favorite at 58.4%. 163 seconds of projected control time supports the floor.
Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast 18-6 | 50.1% | $8,200 / 61.0 | 15 / 69.3 | 20.3% | -110 |
| Chris Padilla 17-6-1 | 49.9% | $8,000 / 65.7 | 14 / 74.3 | 27.8% | +100 |
Nasrat Haqparast is the model favorite at 50.1%.
Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcio Barbosa 18-2 | 90.5% | $9,800 / 102.5 | 22 / 110.1 | 25.5% | -791 |
| Ryan Kuse 9-2 | 9.5% | $6,400 / 19.3 | 8 / 20.6 | 6.3% | +850 |
Top projection on both sites at 102.5 DK and 110.1 FD, built on a finish rate above 80% and a -791 line the market is settled on. Notably his ownership dropped five points to 25.5% on the latest run while his projection barely moved, which makes him better now than he was earlier in the week. The cleanest anchor available.
Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauge Young 11-3 | 64.3% | $8,300 / 75.8 | 15 / 81.1 | 31.9% | -159 |
| Stan Dorsainvil 5-0 | 35.8% | $7,900 / 59.0 | 16 / 62.0 | 18.5% | +135 |
Gauge Young is the model favorite at 64.3%. But ownership is heavy at 31.9% DK and 40.0% FD.
Jackson McVey vs Wes Schultz
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McVey 7-2 | 67.1% | $8,700 / 74.4 | 17 / 79.0 | 21.1% | -175 |
| Wes Schultz 9-3 | 32.9% | $7,500 / 42.1 | 12 / 45.1 | 6.9% | +154 |
Jackson McVey is the model favorite at 67.1%.
Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanelle Dyer 7-1 | 90.4% | $9,700 / 98.6 | 21 / 104.3 | 30.0% | -791 |
| Elise Reed 8-5 | 9.7% | $6,500 / 32.2 | 9 / 35.1 | 31.0% | +700 |
90.4% to win with 163 seconds of projected control, priced at $9,700 and projecting 98.6 DK. Ownership is 30.0% DK and 38.6% FD, so she is not a differentiator, but the floor is among the best on the card and she anchors cash builds comfortably.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Jones | $9,000 | 98.8 | 82.7% | 42.5% |
| Lerryan Douglas | $9,300 | 97.1 | 85.3% | 29.9% |
| Anthony Hernandez | $8,600 | 95.2 | 69.7% | 45.0% |
| Gauge Young | $8,300 | 75.8 | 64.3% | 31.9% |
| Nasrat Haqparast | $8,200 | 61.0 | 50.1% | 20.3% |
| Elise Reed | $6,500 | 32.2 | 9.7% | 31.0% |
| Totals | $49,900 | 460.2 | 200.7% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcio Barbosa | $9,800 | 102.5 | 90.5% | 25.5% |
| Anthony Wint | $9,900 | 101.0 | 91.7% | 21.9% |
| Vitor Petrino | $8,500 | 67.3 | 61.3% | 11.2% |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | $7,800 | 52.5 | 41.6% | 10.6% |
| Wes Schultz | $7,500 | 42.1 | 32.9% | 6.9% |
| Elise Reed | $6,500 | 32.2 | 9.7% | 31.0% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 397.8 | 107.2% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerryan Douglas | $9,300 | 97.1 | 85.3% | 29.9% |
| Jackson McVey | $8,700 | 74.4 | 67.1% | 21.1% |
| Shamil Gaziev | $8,400 | 72.8 | 58.4% | 26.9% |
| Chris Padilla | $8,000 | 65.7 | 49.9% | 27.8% |
| Stan Dorsainvil | $7,900 | 59.0 | 35.8% | 18.5% |
| Gregory Rodrigues | $7,600 | 53.5 | 30.3% | 22.8% |
| Totals | $49,900 | 422.5 | 147.0% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcio Barbosa | 22 | 110.1 | 90.5% | 33.2% |
| Lerryan Douglas | 19 | 106.3 | 85.3% | 38.5% |
| Shanelle Dyer | 21 | 104.3 | 90.4% | 38.6% |
| Mason Jones | 18 | 103.7 | 82.7% | 54.1% |
| Carli Judice | 20 | 102.0 | 88.6% | 38.9% |
| Totals | 100 units | 526.4 | 203.1% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcio Barbosa | 22 | 110.1 | 90.5% | 33.2% |
| Anthony Wint | 24 | 106.3 | 91.7% | 18.2% |
| Vitor Petrino | 16 | 70.2 | 61.3% | 10.2% |
| Stan Dorsainvil | 16 | 62.0 | 35.8% | 4.6% |
| Wes Schultz | 12 | 45.1 | 32.9% | 5.3% |
| Totals | 90 units | 393.7 | 71.4% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Anthony Hernandez is now the heaviest chalk on the card at 45.0% DraftKings ownership, up more than seven points on the latest run. The case for him is real: 311 seconds of projected control, comfortably the most on the slate, and the highest ceiling, across five rounds. But 69.7% is a modest win probability for nearly half the field, and the market has this fight at only -183. Rodrigues at +170 is live.
Elise Reed carries the worst leverage figure on the board at 1.04, drawing 31.0% ownership on a 9.7% win probability. She is cheap at $6,500 and the field is using her as salary relief against a -791 favorite. A punt that loses nine times in ten is not salary relief, it is a hole in the lineup. If you need to save money, Wes Schultz at $7,500 and 6.9% ownership is the better version of the same idea.
Mason Jones is the FanDuel problem specifically: 54.1% ownership there, more than half the field, against 42.5% on DraftKings.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again, and this week we tested it harder than usual. Your odds board included full method-of-victory and round-total markets, so we ran the calibration against the distance market as well as the moneyline. The moneyline fit returns an R squared of 0.981 across the 12 priced fights. The distance market returns 0.994. Both are tracking the market rather than disagreeing with it, with an average difference of 2.5 points on the distance market.
Props were the last place an independent edge might have been hiding, and it is not there. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC Sacramento?
Anthony Wint. Highest win probability on the card at 91.7%, highest finish rate at 82.9%, 21.9% ownership, and no sportsbook will price the fight.
Who is the biggest leverage play?
Wes Schultz at 6.07 points per ownership point, just ahead of Vitor Petrino at 5.99.
Can you roster six favorites on DraftKings?
No. The six cheapest total $50,700 against a $50,000 cap, missing by $700.
What time does the card lock?
5:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 22, 2026.
FTA+ members get the full UFC Sacramento cheat sheet with every fighter tiered, plus the complete projections board.