These are FTA’s UFC 330 DFS picks for Saturday’s card at Xfinity Mobile Arena, the promotion’s first numbered event in Philadelphia since 2011. Islam Makhachev defends the welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry in the main event, with Mackenzie Dern defending at strawweight underneath, on a board that locks at 5:30 PM ET. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, cash and GPP builds, and the scoring quirk that splits this slate cleanly between the two sites.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics 15-3 | $9,400 | 98.8 | 35.7% | 21 | 108.8 | 50.2% | 88.9% | -590 |
| Islam Makhachev 28-1 | $9,200 | 98.5 | 39.5% | 22 | 88.2 | 19.0% | 83.7% | -300 |
| Myktybek Orolbai 16-2-1 | $9,600 | 96.2 | 25.5% | 23 | 94.4 | 19.3% | 91.4% | -872 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik 9-1-1 | $9,500 | 85.9 | 20.9% | 21 | 90.7 | 29.5% | 90.1% | -567 |
| Mackenzie Dern 16-5 | $9,000 | 84.2 | 32.4% | 18 | 80.5 | 34.7% | 73.1% | -186 |
| Donte Johnson 8-0 | $8,800 | 83.3 | 38.3% | 17 | 86.8 | 52.4% | 77.5% | -275 |
| Joel Alvarez 23-4 | $8,900 | 82.3 | 33.1% | 18 | 88.6 | 45.1% | 81.9% | -300 |
| Lucas Fernando 13-3 | $9,100 | 80.8 | 29.5% | 19 | 86.2 | 39.9% | 81.1% | -275 |
| Jalin Turner 15-9 | $8,600 | 69.4 | 35.9% | 16 | 75.0 | 50.2% | 63.7% | -144 |
| Gillian Robertson 17-8 | $7,200 | 57.5 | 40.2% | 13 | 54.4 | 25.0% | 26.9% | +178 |
| Ian Machado Garry 17-1 | $7,000 | 37.2 | 21.7% | 12 | 35.5 | 10.4% | 16.3% | +285 |
| Edson Barboza 24-14 | $6,800 | 26.7 | 15.7% | 10 | 30.8 | 10.7% | 11.1% | +600 |
Full 22-fighter table is on the MMA DFS projections page.
UFC 330 DFS picks: the core plays
Myktybek Orolbai ($9,600 DK / 23 FD) is the best play on the board and the field has not noticed. He carries the highest win probability on the card at 91.4%, projects 96.2 on DraftKings with 221 seconds of control, and sits at just 25.5% DraftKings and 19.3% FanDuel ownership. He is the single most expensive fighter available, which is usually enough to draw a crowd, and it has not.
Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9,500 DK / 21 FD) has the best points-per-ownership figure on the slate at 4.12. The model gives him 90.1%, the market agrees at -567, and he draws 20.9% ownership. Stoltzfus is durable enough that this likely goes to accumulation rather than a fast finish, which suits a 60% finish rate and 84 seconds of projected control.
Esteban Ribovics ($9,400 DK / 21 FD) is the top raw projection on both sites. He is also on half the FanDuel field at 50.2%. Play him, but understand you are matching the room rather than beating it.
The Makhachev split, and why it matters
The most useful thing on this slate is not a fighter, it is a scoring rule. Islam Makhachev projects 420 seconds of control time, more than double anyone else on the card. DraftKings pays 0.03 points per second of control. FanDuel pays nothing for it at all.
That one difference produces a 98.5 DraftKings projection against 88.2 on FanDuel, and the field has priced it correctly: 39.5% ownership on DraftKings, 19.0% on FanDuel. He is chalk on one site and a leverage play on the other, in the same fight, on the same night. If you are playing both sites, that asymmetry is worth more than any single pick on this card.
Full card breakdown
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev 28-1 | 83.7% | $9,200 / 98.5 | 22 / 88.2 | 39.5% | -300 |
| Ian Machado Garry 17-1 | 16.3% | $7,000 / 37.2 | 12 / 35.5 | 21.7% | +285 |
The most interesting ownership split on the card, and it is a scoring quirk rather than an opinion. Makhachev projects 420 seconds of control time, more than double anyone else on the slate. DraftKings pays 0.03 per second of control; FanDuel pays nothing for it. That single difference is why he projects 98.5 on DK against 88.2 on FD, and why he is owned 39.5% on DraftKings but only 19.0% on FanDuel. He is chalk on one site and leverage on the other.
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern 16-5 | 73.1% | $9,000 / 84.2 | 18 / 80.5 | 32.4% | -186 |
| Gillian Robertson 17-8 | 26.9% | $7,200 / 57.5 | 13 / 54.4 | 40.2% | +178 |
Five rounds of scoring opportunity in a title defense, with 251 seconds of projected control and a 164.8 ceiling, the second highest on the card. The model has her at 73.1% against Robertson’s 26.9%. Ownership is heavy at 32.4% DK, but a five-round grappling match against another grappler is the kind of spot where control time compounds.
Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner 15-9 | 63.7% | $8,600 / 69.4 | 16 / 75.0 | 35.9% | -144 |
| Kaue Fernandes 11-2 | 36.3% | $7,600 / 48.9 | 13 / 53.6 | 30.8% | +138 |
The weakest projection-to-ownership ratio among the favorites at 1.94. Turner is 63.7% to win and carries 35.9% DK and 50.2% FD ownership, which is a lot of field for a fight the market prices at only -144. Fernandes at 11-2 and +138 is live, and Turner’s 19.9 floor is the lowest of any favorite on the card.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansur Abdul-Malik 9-1-1 | 90.1% | $9,500 / 85.9 | 21 / 90.7 | 20.9% | -567 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus 16-8 | 9.9% | $6,700 / 25.5 | 9 / 26.8 | 14.5% | +575 |
Highest leverage score on the card at 4.12. The model gives him 90.1% and the market agrees at -567, yet he draws only 20.9% DraftKings ownership. Stoltzfus is 16-8 and durable, so this projects as accumulation rather than a quick night, but 84 seconds of control and a 60% finish rate give him both floor and ceiling.
Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics 15-3 | 88.9% | $9,400 / 98.8 | 21 / 108.8 | 35.7% | -590 |
| Edson Barboza 24-14 | 11.1% | $6,800 / 26.7 | 10 / 30.8 | 15.7% | +600 |
Top projection on the board on both sites at 98.8 DK and 108.8 FD, and the model has him at 88.9% with a 68% finish rate. The problem is everyone can see it: 35.7% DraftKings and 50.2% FanDuel ownership. Half the FanDuel field is on him. Barboza at 24-14 is 37 fights deep and has been finished before, so the path is real, but you are paying full freight in ownership terms.
Joel Alvarez vs Chidi Njokuani
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Alvarez 23-4 | 81.9% | $8,900 / 82.3 | 18 / 88.6 | 33.1% | -300 |
| Chidi Njokuani 25-12 | 18.1% | $7,300 / 31.3 | 11 / 34.3 | 15.0% | +252 |
81.9% to win with a 60% finish rate at 33.1% ownership. He has finished all but one of his UFC wins and enters on a long run of form. Njokuani needs to land early on the feet, because the model gives Alvarez the ground almost by default. Solid without being a differentiator at this ownership.
Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Johnson 8-0 | 77.5% | $8,800 / 83.3 | 17 / 86.8 | 38.3% | -275 |
| Eric McConico 11-4-1 | 22.5% | $7,400 / 31.2 | 12 / 31.1 | 14.8% | +240 |
8-0 and 77.5% to win, but the field has found him: 38.3% DraftKings and 52.4% FanDuel ownership. Undefeated prospects on a numbered card draw eyes. 136 seconds of control and a 55% finish rate support the projection, and McConico at 11-4-1 is beatable, but more than half the FanDuel field is here.
Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque 24-12-1 | 46.2% | $7,800 / 54.7 | 14 / 60.9 | 33.8% | +104 |
| Tresean Gore 6-4 | 53.8% | $8,400 / 61.8 | 16 / 67.3 | 29.7% | -108 |
The other half of the card’s only true pick’em at 53.8% model and 51.9% implied. At $8,400 with 80 seconds of projected control he is the cheaper side of a fight nobody can call, and at 29.7% ownership he is slightly less exposed than Luque.
Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Fernando 13-3 | 81.1% | $9,100 / 80.8 | 19 / 86.2 | 29.5% | -275 |
| Rafael Tobias 14-2 | 18.9% | $7,100 / 31.2 | 11 / 33.0 | 16.9% | +240 |
81.1% at 29.5% DraftKings ownership, opening the card at light heavyweight. 91 seconds of control and a 53% finish rate. Slate-opening fighters are consistently underowned relative to projection, and at $9,100 he is priced as a mid-tier piece while projecting like a core one.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Neil Magny
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramiz Brahimaj 13-6 | 58.3% | $8,200 / 61.5 | 15 / 61.5 | 34.0% | -133 |
| Neil Magny 31-14 | 41.7% | $8,000 / 50.2 | 14 / 48.8 | 26.0% | +127 |
Ramiz Brahimaj is the model favorite at 58.3%. But ownership is heavy at 34.0% DK and 34.6% FD. 122 seconds of projected control time supports the floor.
Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myktybek Orolbai 16-2-1 | 91.4% | $9,600 / 96.2 | 23 / 94.4 | 25.5% | -872 |
| Jeremiah Wells 13-4-1 | 8.6% | $6,600 / 23.1 | 8 / 21.0 | 13.0% | +809 |
The best play on the card. Highest win probability on the slate at 91.4%, 96.2 DK projection, 221 seconds of projected control, and only 25.5% DraftKings and 19.3% FanDuel ownership. Points per ownership point comes out at 3.77, second only to Abdul-Malik. He is the most expensive fighter available at $9,600 and the field is spending elsewhere, which is exactly the combination you want.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Johnson | $8,800 | 83.3 | 77.5% | 38.3% |
| Joel Alvarez | $8,900 | 82.3 | 81.9% | 33.1% |
| Lucas Fernando | $9,100 | 80.8 | 81.1% | 29.5% |
| Tresean Gore | $8,400 | 61.8 | 53.8% | 29.7% |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | $8,200 | 61.5 | 58.3% | 34.0% |
| Jeremiah Wells | $6,600 | 23.1 | 8.6% | 13.0% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 392.8 | 177.4% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | $9,400 | 98.8 | 88.9% | 35.7% |
| Myktybek Orolbai | $9,600 | 96.2 | 91.4% | 25.5% |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik | $9,500 | 85.9 | 90.1% | 20.9% |
| Gillian Robertson | $7,200 | 57.5 | 26.9% | 40.2% |
| Ian Machado Garry | $7,000 | 37.2 | 16.3% | 21.7% |
| Chidi Njokuani | $7,300 | 31.3 | 18.1% | 15.0% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 406.8 | 159.0% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | $9,400 | 98.8 | 88.9% | 35.7% |
| Mackenzie Dern | $9,000 | 84.2 | 73.1% | 32.4% |
| Lucas Fernando | $9,100 | 80.8 | 81.1% | 29.5% |
| Vicente Luque | $7,800 | 54.7 | 46.2% | 33.8% |
| Kaue Fernandes | $7,600 | 48.9 | 36.3% | 30.8% |
| Ian Machado Garry | $7,000 | 37.2 | 16.3% | 21.7% |
| Totals | $49,900 | 404.5 | 183.9% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 21 | 108.8 | 88.9% | 50.2% |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 23 | 94.4 | 91.4% | 19.3% |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik | 21 | 90.7 | 90.1% | 29.5% |
| Joel Alvarez | 18 | 88.6 | 81.9% | 45.1% |
| Donte Johnson | 17 | 86.8 | 77.5% | 52.4% |
| Totals | 100 units | 469.3 | 196.6% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 21 | 108.8 | 88.9% | 50.2% |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 23 | 94.4 | 91.4% | 19.3% |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik | 21 | 90.7 | 90.1% | 29.5% |
| Islam Makhachev | 22 | 88.2 | 83.7% | 19.0% |
| Gillian Robertson | 13 | 54.4 | 26.9% | 25.0% |
| Totals | 100 units | 436.4 | 143.1% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Gillian Robertson is the clearest fade on the card. She draws the highest ownership on the slate at 40.2% DraftKings while the model gives her 26.9% to win and the market prices her at +178. The argument for her is real: 286 seconds of projected control, the UFC women’s record for submission wins, and control time banks DraftKings points even in defeat. But two in five lineups on a fighter more likely than not to lose is a crowd, not a floor.
Jalin Turner has the weakest projection-to-ownership ratio among favorites at 1.94, carrying 35.9% DK and 50.2% FD ownership in a fight the market prices at only -144. Donte Johnson at 52.4% FanDuel ownership is the other name to think twice about, undefeated and deserving but no longer a secret.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again this week rather than graded bets. Testing the model against seven books returns an R squared of 0.98 with a slope above one, which means the output is tracking the market line and stretching it at the extremes rather than disagreeing with it. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC 330?
Myktybek Orolbai. Highest win probability on the card at 91.4%, a 96.2 DraftKings projection, and only 25.5% ownership.
Why is Makhachev owned so differently on the two sites?
Control time. He projects 420 seconds of it, DraftKings pays 0.03 per second, FanDuel pays nothing. That is a 39.5% versus 19.0% ownership gap from a single scoring rule.
Can you roster six favorites on DraftKings?
No. The six cheapest total $51,900 against a $50,000 cap, so at least one underdog is mandatory.
What time does the card lock?
5:30 PM ET on Saturday, August 15, 2026.
FTA+ members get the full UFC 330 cheat sheet with every fighter tiered, plus the complete projections board.