These are FTA’s UFC 331 DFS picks for Saturday’s card at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Joshua Van defends the flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja in a rematch of a fight that lasted 26 seconds. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, showdown captain leverage, and cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gable Steveson 4-0 |
$9,900 | 108.3 | 33.1% | 24 | 118.3 | 36.2% | 94.6% | -1433 |
| Ryan Gandra 10-1 |
$9,400 | 96.7 | 28.1% | 21 | 105.8 | 31.1% | 83.3% | -491 |
| Robelis Despaigne 6-2 |
$9,600 | 93.6 | 26.2% | 22 | 100.9 | 28.2% | 86.5% | -500 |
| Arman Tsarukyan 23-3 |
$9,100 | 94.1 | 39.7% | 19 | 97.3 | 44.2% | 75.5% | -291 |
| Joanderson Brito 19-5-1 |
$9,200 | 80.4 | 17.5% | 20 | 82.4 | 12.5% | 78.3% | -382 |
| Joshua Van 17-2 |
$8,300 | 80.6 | 52.5% | 18 | 88.6 | 49.1% | 55.2% | -137 |
| Alexandre Pantoja 30-6 |
$7,900 | 72.3 | 44.7% | 16 | 76.3 | 31.2% | 44.8% | +122 |
| Charles Jourdain 18-8-1 |
$8,800 | 65.6 | 13.3% | 17 | 71.0 | 17.8% | 67.1% | -209 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan 16-6 |
$8,400 | 67.4 | 18.8% | 15 | 72.0 | 22.7% | 63.2% | -175 |
| Marlon Vera 23-12-1 |
$7,400 | 48.3 | 33.1% | 12 | 54.0 | 33.4% | 32.9% | +180 |
| Ozzy Diaz 10-4 |
$6,800 | 24.7 | 27.8% | 9 | 27.6 | 23.2% | 16.7% | +525 |
| Alonzo Menifield 18-6-1 |
$7,500 | 37.0 | 5.6% | 11 | 40.5 | 5.1% | 31.0% | +207 |
Full 24-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
The main event is the most owned fight and the least settled
Joshua Van is on 52.5% of DraftKings lineups, the highest figure on the card. The model gives him 55.2% to win. The market has him at -137. Those three numbers do not belong together.
The first meeting lasted 26 seconds and that result is carrying a lot of weight in the ownership. Pantoja on the other side is 44.8% and draws 44.7%, so both men are heavily owned and the fight is close to neutral from a leverage standpoint whichever side you take. What separates them is floor: Pantoja projects 227 seconds of control against Van’s 123, so if this one goes the distance rather than ending early again, Pantoja banks more along the way.
UFC 331 DFS picks: the core plays
Joanderson Brito ($9,200 DK / 20 FD) is the best leverage on the card at 4.60. He is 78.3% to win, projects 80.4 with 137 seconds of control and a 57.4% finish rate, and draws 17.5% DraftKings and just 12.5% FanDuel ownership. Chikadze is the name people know and the model gives him 21.7%.
Charles Jourdain ($8,800 DK / 17 FD) is at 4.94, the highest figure that clears our projection bar. He is 67.1% to win at 13.3% ownership while Marlon Vera, at 32.9% to win, draws 33.1%. Two and a half times the exposure on the wrong side of the same fight.
Gable Steveson ($9,900 DK / 24 FD) is the closest thing to a lock: 94.6% to win, an 88.9% finish rate, and the top projection on both sites.
Showdown: nine fights on the televised slate
The showdown covers nine fights with one captain at 1.5x salary and points plus five flex, under a $50,000 cap. The cheapest legal roster costs $32,600, so salary is not the constraint and captain selection is most of the decision.
| Fighter | CPT Salary | CPT Proj | CPT Own | FLEX Own | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gable Steveson | $14,400 | 162.4 | 8.2% | 32.6% | 24.4 |
| Ryan Gandra | $13,200 | 145.1 | 9.5% | 33.5% | 24.0 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | $12,600 | 141.1 | 11.7% | 34.7% | 23.0 |
| Robelis Despaigne | $13,500 | 140.4 | 7.5% | 32.7% | 25.2 |
| Iwo Baraniewski | $11,100 | 121.2 | 8.6% | 42.6% | 34.0 |
| Joshua Van | $10,500 | 121.0 | 12.4% | 34.6% | 22.2 |
| Dooho Choi | $11,700 | 119.0 | 7.8% | 32.0% | 24.2 |
| JooSang Yoo | $12,300 | 109.3 | 4.4% | 29.1% | 24.7 |
| Alexandre Pantoja | $10,200 | 108.5 | 9.0% | 29.7% | 20.7 |
| Charles Jourdain | $11,400 | 98.4 | 3.6% | 22.2% | 18.6 |
The gaps are tighter than last week’s, clustered between 18 and 34 points rather than the 54-point split we saw at Noche UFC. Iwo Baraniewski is the widest at 42.6% flex against 8.6% captain. Gable Steveson holds the top captain projection at 162.4 on 8.2% ownership, which is a reasonable place to be given he is the surest thing on the card.
Full card breakdown
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van 17-2 | 55.2% | $8,300 / 80.6 | 18 / 88.6 | 52.5% | -137 |
| Alexandre Pantoja 30-6 | 44.8% | $7,900 / 72.3 | 16 / 76.3 | 44.7% | +122 |
The champion, the most owned fighter on the card at 52.5% DraftKings, and a fighter the model does not rate nearly as highly as the field does. He is 55.2% to win, barely better than a coin flip, against a market that has him at only -137. The first meeting lasted 26 seconds, and that result is doing a lot of work in the ownership. He projects 80.6 with 123 seconds of control across five rounds, which is fine, but a 1.54 leverage figure on half the field is the definition of paying retail.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan 23-3 | 75.5% | $9,100 / 94.1 | 19 / 97.3 | 39.7% | -291 |
| Mauricio Ruffy 14-2 | 24.6% | $7,100 / 39.0 | 10 / 41.1 | 17.0% | +250 |
The heaviest chalk on the main card at 39.7% DraftKings and 44.2% FanDuel. He is 75.5% to win with 244 seconds of projected control, the most on the entire card, which is why he projects 94.1 despite only a 54.5% finish rate. The control number is the reason to play him, and it is a DraftKings-specific reason since FanDuel pays nothing for it.
Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patricio Pitbull 37-9 | 27.8% | $7,300 / 39.0 | 11 / 41.1 | 14.2% | +235 |
| Dooho Choi 17-4-1 | 72.2% | $8,900 / 79.3 | 18 / 86.2 | 32.1% | -275 |
72.2% to win at 32.1% DraftKings and 42.6% FanDuel ownership, projecting 79.3 with 91 seconds of control. The market has him at -275. Pitbull is the more decorated name across his career but the model gives him 27.8%, and the FanDuel split is the thing to note: more than two in five entries there against roughly one in three on DraftKings.
Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iwo Baraniewski 9-0 | 69.1% | $8,700 / 80.8 | 17 / 87.6 | 38.6% | -250 |
| Alonzo Menifield 18-6-1 | 31.0% | $7,500 / 37.0 | 11 / 40.5 | 5.6% | +207 |
69.1% to win with a 60.6% finish rate, projecting 80.8 DraftKings and 87.6 FanDuel. The problem is exposure: 38.6% on DraftKings and 49.0% on FanDuel, where half the field is on him. A 2.10 leverage figure is among the weaker ones on the card. He is also the widest showdown split at 42.6% flex against 8.6% captain, so if you want him, the captain slot is where the value is.
Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gable Steveson 4-0 | 94.6% | $9,900 / 108.3 | 24 / 118.3 | 33.1% | -1433 |
| Sean Sharaf 4-2 | 5.4% | $6,300 / 14.6 | 7 / 17.0 | 5.4% | +1200 |
The top projection on the slate at 108.3 DraftKings and 118.3 FanDuel, on a 94.6% win probability and a -1433 line. The Olympic gold medalist is the most expensive fighter at $9,900 and draws 33.1% ownership. A 88.9% finish rate is the highest on the card by a distance. This is as close to a lock as the slate offers, and the field knows it.
Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera 23-12-1 | 32.9% | $7,400 / 48.3 | 12 / 54.0 | 33.1% | +180 |
| Charles Jourdain 18-8-1 | 67.1% | $8,800 / 65.6 | 17 / 71.0 | 13.3% | -209 |
A 4.94 leverage figure, the second best on the board. He is 67.1% to win against Marlon Vera at 13.3% DraftKings and 17.8% FanDuel ownership, in a fight the market prices at -209. Vera is the far bigger name and draws 33.1%, two and a half times Jourdain’s exposure, on a 32.9% win probability. That is the ownership gap of the week.
Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Tuivasa 14-10 | 13.5% | $6,600 / 19.9 | 8 / 20.8 | 4.7% | +575 |
| Robelis Despaigne 6-2 | 86.5% | $9,600 / 93.6 | 22 / 100.9 | 26.2% | -500 |
86.5% to win with a 78.7% finish rate and a 3.57 leverage figure at 26.2% ownership. He projects 93.6 DraftKings and 100.9 FanDuel, and at $9,600 he is the second most expensive fighter available. Tuivasa is 13.5% to win and the model gives this fight very little chance of reaching the scorecards.
Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze 15-6 | 21.7% | $7,000 / 29.8 | 10 / 30.2 | 19.2% | +340 |
| Joanderson Brito 19-5-1 | 78.3% | $9,200 / 80.4 | 20 / 82.4 | 17.5% | -382 |
The best leverage on the card at 4.60. He is 78.3% to win at only 17.5% DraftKings and 12.5% FanDuel ownership, projecting 80.4 with 137 seconds of control and a 57.4% finish rate. Chikadze is the recognisable name and the model gives him 21.7%, which is where the ownership is going. On FanDuel in particular, one entry in eight is a very small number for a fighter this well positioned.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmen Shahbazyan 16-6 | 63.2% | $8,400 / 67.4 | 15 / 72.0 | 18.8% | -175 |
| Brunno Ferreira 15-4 | 36.8% | $7,800 / 44.5 | 14 / 47.5 | 14.4% | +165 |
63.2% to win at 18.8% DraftKings and 22.7% FanDuel ownership, a 3.59 leverage figure with 92 seconds of projected control. The market has this at -175, so the model and the books broadly agree, and the field is underweight on a main-slate favorite.
Michael Aswell Jr. vs JooSang Yoo
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Aswell Jr. 11-5 | 30.9% | $7,200 / 48.6 | 11 / 54.3 | 32.7% | +175 |
| JooSang Yoo 9-1 | 69.1% | $9,000 / 72.9 | 18 / 79.7 | 22.6% | -205 |
69.1% to win at 22.6% DraftKings ownership against Aswell’s 32.7%, which is the wrong way round given the market has Yoo at -205. He projects 72.9 with 69 seconds of control and a 3.22 leverage figure. Note his 29.0% finish rate is low, so this is an accumulation profile that needs rounds rather than a stoppage.
Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gandra 10-1 | 83.3% | $9,400 / 96.7 | 21 / 105.8 | 28.1% | -491 |
| Ozzy Diaz 10-4 | 16.7% | $6,800 / 24.7 | 9 / 27.6 | 27.8% | +525 |
83.3% to win at 28.1% ownership, projecting 96.7 with a 76.2% finish rate, the second highest on the card. His 3.45 leverage figure is strong for a fighter this expensive at $9,400. Diaz on the other side carries the worst figure on the slate.
Casey O’Neill vs Eduarda Moura
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O’Neill 11-2 | 67.1% | $8,500 / 72.8 | 16 / 77.0 | 37.2% | -225 |
| Eduarda Moura 12-2 | 32.9% | $7,700 / 50.6 | 13 / 52.8 | 22.5% | +200 |
67.1% to win at 37.2% DraftKings and 43.4% FanDuel ownership, which is heavy for a fighter the market prices at only -225. She projects 98 seconds of control, which supports a 72.8 figure, but a 23.8% finish rate means most of her scoring comes from grinding rather than ending it. A 1.96 leverage figure puts her in fade territory on both sites.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gandra | $9,400 | 96.7 | 83.3% | 28.1% |
| Arman Tsarukyan | $9,100 | 94.1 | 75.5% | 39.7% |
| Joshua Van | $8,300 | 80.6 | 55.2% | 52.5% |
| Casey O’Neill | $8,500 | 72.8 | 67.1% | 37.2% |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | $8,400 | 67.4 | 63.2% | 18.8% |
| Sean Sharaf | $6,300 | 14.6 | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 426.3 | 181.6% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point, restricted to fighters at or above the median projection so the build cannot fill up on cheap bodies nobody rosters.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gandra | $9,400 | 96.7 | 83.3% | 28.1% |
| Robelis Despaigne | $9,600 | 93.6 | 86.5% | 26.2% |
| Joanderson Brito | $9,200 | 80.4 | 78.3% | 17.5% |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | $8,400 | 67.4 | 63.2% | 18.8% |
| Mauricio Ruffy | $7,100 | 39.0 | 24.6% | 17.0% |
| Sean Sharaf | $6,300 | 14.6 | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 391.8 | 112.9% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gandra | $9,400 | 96.7 | 83.3% | 28.1% |
| Iwo Baraniewski | $8,700 | 80.8 | 69.1% | 38.6% |
| Dooho Choi | $8,900 | 79.3 | 72.2% | 32.1% |
| Casey O’Neill | $8,500 | 72.8 | 67.1% | 37.2% |
| Michael Aswell Jr. | $7,200 | 48.6 | 30.9% | 32.7% |
| Mauricio Ruffy | $7,100 | 39.0 | 24.6% | 17.0% |
| Totals | $49,800 | 417.3 | 185.6% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gable Steveson | 24 | 118.3 | 94.6% | 36.2% |
| Ryan Gandra | 21 | 105.8 | 83.3% | 31.1% |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 19 | 97.3 | 75.5% | 44.2% |
| Joshua Van | 18 | 88.6 | 55.2% | 49.1% |
| Iwo Baraniewski | 17 | 87.6 | 69.1% | 49.0% |
| Totals | 99 units | 497.6 | 209.6% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gable Steveson | 24 | 118.3 | 94.6% | 36.2% |
| Robelis Despaigne | 22 | 100.9 | 86.5% | 28.2% |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 19 | 97.3 | 75.5% | 44.2% |
| Joanderson Brito | 20 | 82.4 | 78.3% | 12.5% |
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 15 | 72.0 | 63.2% | 22.7% |
| Totals | 100 units | 470.9 | 143.8% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Ozzy Diaz carries the worst leverage figure on the slate at 0.89: 27.8% DraftKings ownership on a 16.7% win probability against a +525 price. An 11.4% finish rate and 29 seconds of projected control mean he banks almost nothing even when the fight goes long.
Marlon Vera is at 1.46, drawing 33.1% DK and 33.4% FD ownership on 32.9% to win. He is among the most recognisable names on the card and the field is paying for that.
Michael Aswell Jr. is the prelim version of the same problem: 32.7% ownership on a 30.9% win probability, while Yoo at 69.1% draws 22.6%.
And a note on Alonzo Menifield, whose 6.66 leverage figure is the highest on the board. That is only because 5.6% of the field rosters him. He projects 37.0 on a 31.0% win probability, below the median projection on this slate, so he does not clear the bar our leverage tier requires. Low ownership on a low projection is not an edge, it is the field being right.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again, and this week the fit is the tightest we have measured: an R squared of 0.995 with a slope of 1.085 across all 12 fights. A slope that close to 1.0 means the model is not even stretching the market at the extremes, it is tracking it almost exactly. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make. The projections remain fully useful for DFS, where the question is roster construction rather than beating a price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the best DFS play for UFC 331?
Joanderson Brito at 4.60 points per ownership point, 78.3% to win at 17.5% DraftKings and 12.5% FanDuel ownership.
Should you play Joshua Van?
He is the most owned fighter on the card at 52.5% and the model gives him only 55.2%. The 26-second first fight is doing a lot of work in that ownership.
Is Ortega vs Moicano still on?
No. Ortega withdrew with a training injury and Moicano was removed from the card. UFC 331 is 12 fights and both are excluded from everything here.
What time does the card lock?
DraftKings at 5:30 PM ET, FanDuel at 5:00 PM ET. The sites differ by 30 minutes this week.
FTA+ members get the full UFC 331 cheat sheet with every fighter tiered plus a showdown tab, and the complete projections board.