These are FTA’s UFC Vegas 122 DFS picks for Saturday’s card at the UFC APEX. Brendan Allen meets Christian Leroy Duncan over five rounds at middleweight on a 12-fight board that locks at 5:00 PM ET on both sites. Below is the full breakdown with DraftKings and FanDuel projections, ownership, showdown captain leverage, and cash and GPP builds.
Quick reference
| Fighter | DK Sal | DK Proj | DK Own | FD Sal | FD Proj | FD Own | Win | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Walker 7-3 |
$9,200 | 84.8 | 35.0% | 22 | 90.6 | 45.4% | 73.1% | -300 |
| Felipe Franco 11-2 |
$9,300 | 84.6 | 31.7% | 23 | 88.0 | 33.2% | 76.2% | -350 |
| RJ Harris 6-0 |
$9,100 | 77.4 | 28.5% | 21 | 84.3 | 36.4% | 75.2% | -300 |
| Loopy Godinez 14-6 |
$9,000 | 75.4 | 23.4% | 20 | 76.1 | 22.1% | 68.6% | -225 |
| Matheus Camilo 11-3 |
$8,800 | 74.1 | 29.5% | 18 | 77.8 | 38.8% | 63.9% | -188 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker 10-2 |
$8,900 | 72.2 | 27.9% | 19 | 78.7 | 38.6% | 67.1% | -209 |
| Brendan Allen 27-7 |
$8,500 | 71.4 | 32.8% | 17 | 67.8 | 25.5% | 53.5% | -115 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan 15-2 |
$7,700 | 64.9 | 36.2% | 15 | 68.0 | 33.5% | 46.5% | +104 |
| Alice Pereira 6-1 |
$8,400 | 59.0 | 22.4% | 16 | 59.8 | 15.2% | 56.7% | -125 |
| Francisco Prado 12-5 |
$8,000 | 63.2 | 31.0% | 14 | 69.0 | 36.9% | 53.7% | -125 |
| Ismael Bonfim 20-7 |
$8,200 | 51.2 | 18.8% | 14 | 55.5 | 19.1% | 46.3% | +125 |
| Brendson Ribeiro 17-11 |
$6,900 | 30.6 | 13.1% | 8 | 32.0 | 6.6% | 23.8% | +340 |
Full 24-fighter board, split into DraftKings and FanDuel views, is on the MMA DFS projections page.
This slate has no leverage plays, and that is worth saying out loud
Our leverage tier requires a figure of 3.4 or better alongside a median or better projection. Nothing on this card clears 3.22. The tier came back empty, and so did the core tier. Eight of the twenty-four fighters landed in fades.
That is not a failure of the model, it is a description of the slate. Ownership is spread almost evenly across the board, and no fighter combines a strong projection with light exposure. Most weeks there is a Payton Talbott or a Joanderson Brito sitting at 4.5 because a famous name on the other side is suppressing their ownership. This week there is nobody.
When the ownership gives you nothing, the edge has to come from somewhere else. This week that is the weigh-ins.
UFC Vegas 122 DFS picks: where the actual edge is
Francisco Prado ($8,000 DK / 14 FD) is the clearest manual adjustment on the card. Artur Minev pulled out with a knee injury, Ismael Bonfim replaced him, and Bonfim weighed 163.5 for a 155 pound fight. The model has this at 53.7% and the market at -125 because neither accounts for a seven and a half pound miss on short notice.
Felipe Franco ($9,300 DK / 23 FD) is the same shape. Alexander Poppeck withdrew, Brendson Ribeiro stepped in, and Ribeiro came in two and a half pounds heavy. Franco is already 76.2% at -350, and this makes a good spot better.
Loopy Godinez ($9,000 DK / 20 FD) is the best figure on the card at 3.22, 68.6% to win with 198 seconds of projected control, and her opponent missed weight by a pound as well.
The main event is backwards
Brendan Allen is 53.5% to win and draws 32.8% DraftKings ownership. Christian Leroy Duncan is 46.5% and draws 36.2%. The underdog is more owned than the favorite in a fight the market calls -115 and +104.
Allen also projects 292 seconds of control, by far the most on the card and a function of five rounds. That is a DraftKings-specific argument, since FanDuel pays nothing for control time. If you want main event exposure, Allen is the better side of it on DraftKings and the gap is wider than the ownership suggests.
Showdown: eight fights on the late slate
The showdown covers eight fights with one captain at 1.5x salary and points plus five flex, under a $50,000 cap. The cheapest legal roster costs $35,700.
| Fighter | CPT Salary | CPT Proj | CPT Own | FLEX Own | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Walker | $14,100 | 127.2 | 5.8% | 45.9% | 40.1 |
| Loopy Godinez | $13,500 | 113.0 | 3.9% | 32.4% | 28.5 |
| Matheus Camilo | $12,900 | 111.1 | 5.1% | 39.7% | 34.6 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker | $13,200 | 108.4 | 6.3% | 35.1% | 28.8 |
| Brendan Allen | $11,400 | 107.1 | 13.2% | 34.3% | 21.1 |
| Leon Shahbazyan | $12,300 | 104.6 | 7.7% | 41.8% | 34.1 |
| Andre Fili | $12,000 | 103.9 | 7.3% | 34.6% | 27.3 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | $10,200 | 97.3 | 11.2% | 33.1% | 21.9 |
| Francisco Prado | $10,500 | 94.8 | 7.9% | 35.9% | 28.0 |
| Kai Kamaka III | $9,600 | 82.0 | 7.3% | 27.5% | 20.2 |
Julius Walker has the widest gap at 45.9% flex against 5.8% captain, a 40.1 point swing and the largest on the slate. He also holds the top captain projection at 127.2. Nearly half the field has him somewhere and one in seventeen has him where the points are multiplied.
Full card breakdown
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen 27-7 | 53.5% | $8,500 / 71.4 | 17 / 67.8 | 32.8% | -115 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan 15-2 | 46.5% | $7,700 / 64.9 | 15 / 68.0 | 36.2% | +104 |
The main event is a coin flip the field has backwards. Allen is 53.5% to win and the market has him at -115, yet he draws 32.8% DraftKings ownership against Christian Leroy Duncan’s 36.2%. The underdog is more owned than the favorite. What Allen offers is 292 seconds of projected control, by far the most on the card and a product of five rounds, which is a DraftKings-specific reason to prefer him since FanDuel pays nothing for it.
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Camilo 11-3 | 63.9% | $8,800 / 74.1 | 18 / 77.8 | 29.5% | -188 |
| Jai Herbert 14-6-1 | 36.1% | $7,400 / 42.0 | 11 / 44.3 | 18.4% | +162 |
63.9% to win in the co-main at 29.5% DraftKings and 38.8% FanDuel ownership, projecting 74.1 with 133 seconds of control. The market has it at -188. Jai Herbert is 14-6-1 and gets 36.1%. Nothing here is mispriced in either direction.
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez 14-6 | 68.6% | $9,000 / 75.4 | 20 / 76.1 | 23.4% | -225 |
| Ketlen Souza 17-6 | 31.5% | $7,200 / 42.6 | 10 / 44.8 | 16.8% | +198 |
The best leverage figure on the card at 3.22, which tells you most of what you need to know about this slate. She is 68.6% to win at 23.4% DraftKings and 22.1% FanDuel ownership, projecting 75.4 with 198 seconds of projected control, the second most on the card. Her opponent Ketlen Souza weighed in at 117.0 against a 116 pound limit, a one pound miss, and the projections here were built before the weigh-ins. Treat that as a small further tilt toward Godinez rather than something already priced in.
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili 25-14 | 58.5% | $8,600 / 69.3 | 16 / 75.9 | 29.1% | -143 |
| Kai Kamaka III 18-8-1 | 41.5% | $7,600 / 54.6 | 12 / 59.5 | 26.1% | +128 |
58.5% to win at 29.1% DraftKings and 40.4% FanDuel ownership, in a fight the market calls -143. Fili is 25-14 and the veteran name here, and at a 2.38 figure with 40% of the FanDuel field on him there is no edge left in the price.
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Wellmaker 10-2 | 67.1% | $8,900 / 72.2 | 19 / 78.7 | 27.9% | -209 |
| Otari Tanzilovi 10-2 | 32.9% | $7,300 / 48.3 | 11 / 50.9 | 22.0% | +185 |
67.1% to win at 27.9% DraftKings and 38.6% FanDuel ownership, projecting 72.2 with a 44.9% finish rate. The market has this at -209 against Otari Tanzilovi, who is also 10-2. A 2.59 figure is middling, and the FanDuel exposure means you are paying close to market there.
Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Walker 7-3 | 73.1% | $9,200 / 84.8 | 22 / 90.6 | 35.0% | -300 |
| Gerald Meerschaert 37-22 | 26.9% | $7,000 / 33.5 | 8 / 35.1 | 12.8% | +252 |
The top projection on the slate at 84.8 DraftKings and 90.6 FanDuel, 73.1% to win with a 62.0% finish rate. The cost is exposure: 35.0% DraftKings and 45.4% FanDuel, where nearly half the field is on him. A 2.42 figure is ordinary on a card where nothing clears 3.22. Gerald Meerschaert is 37-22 and the recognisable name at 26.9%.
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado 12-5 | 53.7% | $8,000 / 63.2 | 14 / 69.0 | 31.0% | -125 |
| Ismael Bonfim 20-7 | 46.3% | $8,200 / 51.2 | 14 / 55.5 | 18.8% | +125 |
53.7% to win against a replacement opponent who badly missed weight. Artur Minev withdrew with a knee injury, Ismael Bonfim stepped in, and Bonfim then weighed 163.5 against a 156 pound limit, seven and a half pounds over. The model has this near a coin flip at -125 because it does not know that. A fighter that far over on short notice is usually depleted, and this is the clearest manual adjustment available on the card.
Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price 16-11 | 41.5% | $7,500 / 50.0 | 12 / 54.5 | 28.7% | +130 |
| Leon Shahbazyan 12-5 | 58.5% | $8,700 / 69.8 | 17 / 73.6 | 33.6% | -144 |
58.5% to win at 33.6% DraftKings and 41.7% FanDuel ownership, which is heavy for a fighter the market prices at only -144. His 2.08 figure is among the weakest on the card. Niko Price is 16-11 and carries the worst figure on the slate at 1.75.
Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Franco 11-2 | 76.2% | $9,300 / 84.6 | 23 / 88.0 | 31.7% | -350 |
| Brendson Ribeiro 17-11 | 23.8% | $6,900 / 30.6 | 8 / 32.0 | 13.1% | +340 |
76.2% to win, the second highest on the card, projecting 84.6 DraftKings and 88.0 FanDuel with a 65.1% finish rate. More relevant: Brendson Ribeiro stepped in after Alexander Poppeck withdrew, and then weighed 208.5 against a 206 pound light heavyweight limit. A short notice replacement giving up two and a half pounds to a fighter already favored at -350 is a worse spot than the line suggests, and none of that is in the projection.
RJ Harris vs Allen Frye Jr.
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harris 6-0 | 75.2% | $9,100 / 77.4 | 21 / 84.3 | 28.5% | -300 |
| Allen Frye Jr. 6-1 | 24.8% | $7,100 / 34.6 | 9 / 37.2 | 13.4% | +300 |
6-0 and 75.2% to win at 28.5% ownership, projecting 77.4 with a 59.4% finish rate. He weighed 261.0 against Allen Frye Jr. at 246.0, a fifteen pound advantage inside the heavyweight limit, which is legal and material. Both men are unbeaten or close to it, and the market has this at -300.
Daria Zhelezniakova vs Alice Pereira
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daria Zhelezniakova 10-3 | 43.3% | $7,800 / 49.7 | 13 / 51.9 | 19.0% | +120 |
| Alice Pereira 6-1 | 56.7% | $8,400 / 59.0 | 16 / 59.8 | 22.4% | -125 |
56.7% to win at 22.4% DraftKings and just 15.2% FanDuel ownership, projecting 59.0 with 111 seconds of control and a 2.63 figure. She is 6-1 against Daria Zhelezniakova at 10-3, and the market has this close at -125. One of the few spots on this slate where the ownership is genuinely light.
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
| Fighter | Model win | DK | FD | Own DK | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaite 6-2-1 | 48.3% | $7,900 / 58.7 | 13 / 61.6 | 23.6% | +101 |
| Melissa Gatto 9-3-2 | 51.7% | $8,300 / 64.4 | 15 / 67.4 | 26.8% | -116 |
A near coin flip at 51.7% against Ernesta Kareckaite’s 48.3%, with the market at -116 and +101. She projects 64.4 with 141 seconds of control and draws 26.8% ownership. Her 18.2% finish rate is low, so the value is in accumulation across three rounds rather than a stoppage.
Lineups
DK Cash
Highest floor available. In MMA cash the 25th percentile matters more than the mean, because a losing fighter banks very little regardless of matchup.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Franco | $9,300 | 84.6 | 76.2% | 31.7% |
| Loopy Godinez | $9,000 | 75.4 | 68.6% | 23.4% |
| Melissa Gatto | $8,300 | 64.4 | 51.7% | 26.8% |
| Francisco Prado | $8,000 | 63.2 | 53.7% | 31.0% |
| Alice Pereira | $8,400 | 59.0 | 56.7% | 22.4% |
| Gerald Meerschaert | $7,000 | 33.5 | 26.9% | 12.8% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 380.0 | 148.1% |
DK GPP Leverage
Maximum projection per ownership point, restricted to fighters at or above the median projection so the build cannot fill up on cheap bodies nobody rosters.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harris | $9,100 | 77.4 | 75.2% | 28.5% |
| Loopy Godinez | $9,000 | 75.4 | 68.6% | 23.4% |
| Malcolm Wellmaker | $8,900 | 72.2 | 67.1% | 27.9% |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | $7,700 | 64.9 | 46.5% | 36.2% |
| Melissa Gatto | $8,300 | 64.4 | 51.7% | 26.8% |
| Gerald Meerschaert | $7,000 | 33.5 | 26.9% | 12.8% |
| Totals | $50,000 | 387.8 | 155.6% |
DK GPP Chalk-Fade
Ceiling build with the three heaviest chalk pieces removed.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Franco | $9,300 | 84.6 | 76.2% | 31.7% |
| Loopy Godinez | $9,000 | 75.4 | 68.6% | 23.4% |
| Brendan Allen | $8,500 | 71.4 | 53.5% | 32.8% |
| Francisco Prado | $8,000 | 63.2 | 53.7% | 31.0% |
| Kai Kamaka III | $7,600 | 54.6 | 41.5% | 26.1% |
| Niko Price | $7,500 | 50.0 | 41.5% | 28.7% |
| Totals | $49,900 | 399.3 | 173.7% |
FD Cash
Highest projection among model favorites.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Walker | 22 | 90.6 | 73.1% | 45.4% |
| Felipe Franco | 23 | 88.0 | 76.2% | 33.2% |
| RJ Harris | 21 | 84.3 | 75.2% | 36.4% |
| Matheus Camilo | 18 | 77.8 | 63.9% | 38.8% |
| Andre Fili | 16 | 75.9 | 58.5% | 40.4% |
| Totals | 100 units | 416.4 | 194.2% |
FD GPP Leverage
Lowest cumulative ownership that still clears the projection bar.
| Fighter | Salary | Proj | Win | Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Franco | 23 | 88.0 | 76.2% | 33.2% |
| RJ Harris | 21 | 84.3 | 75.2% | 36.4% |
| Loopy Godinez | 20 | 76.1 | 68.6% | 22.1% |
| Brendan Allen | 17 | 67.8 | 53.5% | 25.5% |
| Melissa Gatto | 15 | 67.4 | 51.7% | 26.6% |
| Totals | 96 units | 383.5 | 143.8% |
Where the chalk is wrong
Niko Price carries the worst leverage figure on the slate at 1.75: 28.7% DraftKings ownership on a 41.5% win probability against a +130 price. Leon Shahbazyan is the model favorite and draws 33.6%, so this fight is heavily owned on both sides for no clear reason.
Christian Leroy Duncan is at 1.79, the second worst, drawing the most DraftKings ownership of any fighter on the card at 36.2% while being the underdog in his own fight.
Julius Walker is the FanDuel-specific problem at 45.4% ownership there against 35.0% on DraftKings. The 73.1% win probability is real, but nearly half the FanDuel field is already on it.
A note on the betting side
Model leans again. The calibration returns an R squared of 0.995 with a slope of 1.015 across all 12 fights, which is as close to reproducing the market as the model gets. Where a model agrees with the market there is no bet to make.
The one place the market may genuinely be behind is the weigh-ins, since lines were set before Friday. That is a judgement call rather than a model output, and we are flagging it rather than pricing it.
Frequently asked questions
Who missed weight for UFC Vegas 122?
Ismael Bonfim by seven and a half pounds, Brendson Ribeiro by two and a half, Ketlen Souza by one. Bonfim and Ribeiro are both short notice replacements.
Who is the best DFS play?
Loopy Godinez at 3.22, which is the highest figure on an unusually flat card.
Why are there no leverage plays this week?
Nothing clears our 3.4 threshold. Ownership is spread evenly and no fighter pairs a strong projection with light exposure.
What time does the card lock?
5:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 10, 2026, on both sites.
FTA+ members get the full UFC Vegas 122 cheat sheet with every fighter tiered plus a showdown tab, and the complete projections board.