Patriots vs Bears DraftKings Showdown Breakdown Week 7

Patriots at Bears is the Week 7 Thursday night showdown, a projected 51 point pick’em at Soldier Field with A.J. Brown and Kyle Monangai questionable. Below is the game type, the captain pool, the full FTA projection board for the DraftKings showdown, the captain leverage board, the optimal lineup against the ownership capped build, and the low owned screen.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears kicks off on Thursday October 22 at 8:15 PM Eastern at Soldier Field, and it is a one game slate. Below is the full FTA projection board for the DraftKings showdown, the optimal lineup, the captain leverage board and the low owned screen, with every number taken from the same simulation set that feeds our tools.

51.1Projected total

Bears by 2.5Spread

192%Optimal ownership

28Players with projections

Injury note. A.J. Brown is questionable for New England, and so is Kyle Monangai for Chicago, so check both before you build. The Patriots are also without Julian Hill, Mack Hollins, Myles Montgomery and Reggie Gilliam, and the Bears are without Brittain Brown and Hayden Large. Every number below assumes Brown and Monangai play.

Game type: Pick'em, shootout

Neither side is a clear favorite. In our study, pick'em games sent the captain to the favorite 66 percent of the time, so the underdog captain is live in a way it rarely is.

How to build it: Split captains close to evenly between the Bears and the Patriots, and lean on the bigger implied total only slightly. A high total rewards pass catchers on both sides and four-to-two builds.

What the slate shape says before you look at a single player

Our simulations put this game at 51.1 total points, with the Bears at 26.9 and the Patriots at 24.3. That is a spread of about 2.5 points, which still puts it in the pick'em band. Across our study of 163 showdown slates, pick'em spread games sent the captain to the favorite 66 percent of the time.

So neither side is a rule. The same study found the perfect lineup took players from both sides in almost every slate, with a three to three or four to two split accounting for the clear majority. Building entirely on one team is the single most common way to lose a showdown you had right.

The top of the DraftKings board

Drake MayeNE QB21.44$10,600

Caleb WilliamsCHI QB20.50$10,400

D'Andre SwiftCHI RB17.85$9,800

A.J. BrownNE WR15.93$9,000

Luther Burden IIICHI WR14.51$8,400

Rhamondre StevensonNE RB13.63$7,800

Colston LovelandCHI TE11.99$6,400

Rome OdunzeCHI WR10.73$7,400

The eight highest projections on the slate. The full board of 28 players, the value board, the captain leverage board and the optimal lineup are below for FTA+ members.

The rest of this breakdown is in FTA+. Members get the complete 28 player projection board, the value board, the captain leverage board ranked by ceiling over ownership, the optimal lineup with its total projected ownership, the same build under an ownership cap, and the low owned screen. See what FTA+ includes.

That is the free preview

You are seeing the top projections on this single game slate. The full player board, the value board, the captain and MVP leverage board, the optimal lineup with its projected ownership and the low owned screen are in FTA+.

Unlock the full breakdown with FTA+